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Italy faces make-or-break September: World Cup 2026 hopes at risk of elimination

francisco quatrin
The defeat cost Luciano Spalletti his job, with Gennaro Gattuso taking over as Italy prepares for crucial matches against Estonia and Israel.
© STUART FRANKLINThe defeat cost Luciano Spalletti his job, with Gennaro Gattuso taking over as Italy prepares for crucial matches against Estonia and Israel.

The road to the 2026 FIFA World Cup has taken a dramatic turn for Italy. A crushing 3-0 defeat to Norway in the opening match of UEFA qualifying has reignited fears that the Azzurri could once again miss soccer’s biggest stage. After failing to qualify for both Russia 2018 and Qatar 2022, and suffering early exits in South Africa 2010 and Brazil 2014, Italy now faces the terrifying prospect of missing its third consecutive World Cup.

The loss to Norway—led by Erling Haaland and Alexander Sørloth—was the final straw for head coach Luciano Spalletti, who was promptly dismissed. Taking over is former Italian midfielder and World Cup winner Gennaro Gattuso, who announced his first squad for the September international window. Italy will now face Estonia and Israel, matches that could determine whether their qualifying hopes stay alive.

To secure a direct ticket to the World Cup in the United States, Mexico, and Canada, Italy must top its group. Right now, Norway sits comfortably at the top with 12 points and a superior goal difference of +12. Italy trails with just 3 points from two matches, sitting in third place behind Israel, which has 6 points from three games. Estonia also has 3 points, though from four matches.

If Italy cannot close the gap on Norway, it must at least aim for second place to reach the March playoff. But even that is not guaranteed, as Israel has shown strong form and holds the upper hand. At this stage, Italy’s margin for error is gone: they must win nearly every remaining match to keep their World Cup dream alive.

Gennaro Gattuso replaces Spalletti and will make his debut during this FIFA break.

Gennaro Gattuso replaces Spalletti and will make his debut during this FIFA break.

What’s left on Italy’s schedule

  • September 5: vs. Estonia (Bergamo)
  • September 8: at Israel (played in Hungary)
  • October: Reverse fixtures against Israel and Estonia
  • November: at Moldova, then vs. Norway at San Siro (Giuseppe Meazza)
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The Azzurri, four-time world champions, are once again in crisis. With Gattuso now at the helm, Italy must rediscover its fighting spirit and avoid the humiliation of missing yet another World Cup. The next few months will define Italian soccer history, and for a proud nation still haunted by recent failures, the pressure could not be higher.

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