Cristiano Ronaldo is heading into the 2026 World Cup facing his absolute last chance to capture soccer’s holy grail, and while he is far from his physical prime, he remains flanked by an elite supporting cast. Staking Portugal‘s claim as a legitimate title contender, Uruguay icon Diego Lugano made a controversial prediction, boldly stating that “Ronaldo will get penalties just like Lionel Messi did in Qatar.“
Among the heavyweight nations entering the tournament, Portugal has firmly cemented its status as a frontrunner, fresh off capturing the 2025 UEFA Nations League title over Lamine Yamal’s Spain. However, in the eyes of Lugano, it is external narrative factors, rather than pure tactical prowess, that will position the Selecao as primary candidates to hoist the trophy.
Speaking to ESPN Brasil, Lugano offered a blunt assessment of how the squad will benefit from favorable officiating: “Portugal is a candidate because Cristiano is going to get penalties awarded in his favor, just like Messi had in Qatar. That’s the reality. There is going to be a favorable energy to avoid creating controversy.’
As the legendary defender who captained Uruguay to a 2011 Copa America championship and earned 95 international caps, Lugano also threw his weight behind France and Spain as heavy favorites. Yet, his most definitive distinction was reserved for Ronaldo, predicting that subtle competitive advantages will ultimately propel Portugal toward the first World Cup title in federation history.
Lionel Messi and the 2022 World Cup penalty debate
Argentina, and specifically Lionel Messi, drew intense scrutiny in Qatar by becoming the first team in modern World Cup history to be awarded five penalties in a single tournament, with the captain successfully converting four of them, including a crucial spot-kick in the final against France. The previous single-tournament record of four penalties was shared by the Netherlands in 1978 and Portugal in 1966.
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Lugano has long been vocal about that tournament’s officiating, previously telling ESPN that the external pressures surrounding iconic figures inevitably influence refereeing semantics. “Argentina were given five penalties in the World Cup, and four of them were controversial or very doubtful. Due to the presence and how huge Messi has become on a global level, there is a tendency for that interpretation to be favorable,” the Uruguay icon stated.
Neither Uruguay nor Argentina tabbed as favorites
Despite holding the ultimate responsibility of defending the world title won in Qatar, Messi’s Argentina squad does not crack Lugano’s list of primary contenders for the tournament in North America. When assessing South American powerhouses, the retired center-back bypassed both the reigning champions and his own beloved Celeste, highlighting only one regional giant: Brazil.
With manager Carlo Ancelotti now a full year into engineering the project, Lugano views the Canarinha as the ultimate threat to crash the party: “Brazil is the South American team for which I have the highest expectations to go far. They are going to grow as the tournament progresses.”
