Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur both secured victories in their respective Europa League semi-final first legs on Thursday evening, raising the tantalizing prospect of an all-English final on May 21st in Bilbao. Beyond the prestige of winning the trophy, such a final could trigger an unprecedented scenario for the Premier League when it comes to European competition next season.
Arsenal‘s earlier advancement to the Champions League semi-finals solidified that the Premier League will already have at least five teams in next season’s Champions League – thanks to one of the two European Performance Spots (EPS) awarded to the leagues with the best collective record in European competitions this season.
Six, or even seven, Champions League teams?
As it stands, Liverpool, Arsenal, Newcastle, Manchester City, and Chelsea are on track to secure Champions League spots through their domestic league position. Because United and Spurs are likely to finish outside the European qualification places in the Premier League, the winner of a potential all-English Europa League final would become the sixth Premier League club to qualify for the Champions League next term.
But the possibilities don’t stop there. According to Dale Johnson of ESPN, if Arsenal were to go all the way and win the Champions League but also somehow finish outside the top five in the Premier League, that number would increase to an unprecedented seven teams in European soccer’s top tournament. It is a very rare occurrence.
Could eleven Premier League teams qualify for Europe?
The permutations become even more complex when considering all three European competitions. How would Chelsea’s performance in the Conference League play out? How does FA Cup result effect everything?
As per ESPN, it is possible, but “highly improbable” that England has 11 teams across the three European competitions next season. That would require a perfect storm of results:
- Top five in the Premier League qualify for the Champions League
- Arsenal win Champions League but finish outside the top five (6 teams in CL)
- Sixth-place team qualify for Europa League
- FA Cup winners qualify for Europa League
- Conference League winners Chelsea qualify for Europa League
- Carabao Cup winners Newcastle qualify for Conference League
More realistic scenarios
Taking a more realistic view, 10 is likely the maximum number, requiring Arsenal to miss out on domestic European qualification entirely.
The most likely scenario sees:
- Teams finishing first through five and United or Spurs qualifying for the Champions League through the Europa League.
- The team finishing sixth, the FA Cup winners, and Conference League winners Chelsea qualifying for the Europa League.
- Newcastle qualifying for the Conference League through their Carabao Cup triumph.
As always, the Premier League proves to be the most interesting, if not most exciting.
