Lionel Messi makes shock return among 2026 Ballon d’Or contenders: Erling Haaland and Lamine Yamal surge ahead as early favorites emerge

The race for soccer’s most prestigious individual prize is already beginning to take shape, even with months of decisive action still ahead. As the season reaches its midpoint, familiar giants and emerging forces are once again dominating the conversation. Erling Haaland is surging with ruthless efficiency, Lamine Yamal continues his meteoric rise, and — in a twist few expected — Lionel Messi has re-entered the debate entirely.

At a time when the Ballon d’Or era feels more open than it has in two decades, the mid-season picture hints at a generational handover that is far from complete. Power, youth, legacy, and timing are all colliding — and the outcome remains anything but settled.

Since the award shifted to being judged on seasonal performance rather than the calendar year, the Ballon d’Or has become more fluid and unpredictable. Domestic form, continental trophies, and — in 2026 especially — international tournaments now intersect more than ever. With the FIFA World Cup looming in North America and the UEFA Champions League reaching its sharpest stages in the spring, the current rankings are best viewed as a snapshot, not a verdict.

As Goal notes, this is a marathon, not a sprint. Ousmane Dembele, last year’s winner, only emerged as a serious contender midway through the campaign — and his absence from the current list underlines how quickly narratives can shift.

Dembele won the Ballon D’Or 2025.

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Cristiano Ronaldo, Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe, or Lamine Yamal? UEFA Champions League winner Marco van Basten drops shock verdict on world’s best player

Who is the 2026 Ballon d’Or early favorite?

At the summit sits Harry Kane, whose scoring output for Bayern Munich and England has been nothing short of prolific. With 35 goals already this season, Kane has paired elite finishing with trophies, silencing long-standing doubts about silverware and positioning himself as a complete Ballon d’Or candidate.

Just behind him sits Erling Haaland of Manchester City. With 38 goals in all competitions, the Norwegian is once again redefining physical dominance in the modern game. Crucially, Norway’s qualification for the World Cup — their first since 1998 — gives the Norwegian something he has never had before: a global international stage.

Kylian Mbappe (L) of Real Madrid and Lamine Yamal (R) of FC Barcelona.

The presence of Yamal near the very top at just 18 speaks volumes. For Barcelona, he has become the creative and emotional center of the team, producing double-digit goals and assists while carrying responsibility far beyond his years. Concerns about workload and injuries remain, but few players combine flair, productivity, and audacity the way he does.

Meanwhile, Kylian Mbappe continues his long pursuit of soccer’s ultimate individual honor. At Real Madrid, he has shouldered a struggling side with 34 goals already. History suggests that World Cups are where Mbappe truly shines — and another deep run with France could finally tip the scales in his favor.

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Lamine Yamal, Vinicius, and Erling Haaland included, but no Kylian Mbappe: Soccer’s most valuable XI sees major shift with Real Madrid star absent

The return no one expected

Perhaps the most intriguing storyline is the reappearance of Messi among the contenders. Many believed his Ballon d’Or chapter had closed, but his impact at Inter Miami has rewritten that script. With 22 goals, 19 assists, and an MLS Cup triumph, Messi has proven that elite influence is not confined to Europe.

Lionel Messi #10 of Inter Miami CF lifts the Champion’s trophy

As Goal notes, “The days of Messi even being nominated were thought to be behind us — but success at club level, combined with Argentina’s World Cup ambitions, has put him back in the frame.” Should Argentina defend its title, the narrative power alone would be immense.