Lionel Messi’s Inter Miami dropped two points at the worst possible time, drawing 2-2 with Cincinnati and putting their place in the 2027 Concacaf Champions Cup at risk. The Herons still hold their destiny in their own hands, but with two matches left in the MLS regular season, the margin for error has nearly disappeared.
The draw leaves the Herons with 56 points, fourth in the overall standings, which is the last position that currently carries a ticket to the continental tournament. Nashville SC lead with 71 points, followed by New England Revolution and Vancouver Whitecaps with 58 each, while FC Dallas sit just two points behind Miami with 54.
The next match is the one that matters most. Miami visits New England on Nov. 1, and only a win would keep them in control. A draw would not be enough because the tiebreaker prioritizes regular-season victories, which would leave the Revolution above them.
If the Herons fail to win and Dallas beat Sporting Kansas City, Miami would fall to fifth place with just one matchday remaining, the home match against Charlotte on Nov. 7.
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What happens if Inter Miami finish fifth?
A fifth-place finish would not completely close the door. Miami could still qualify by repeating as MLS Cup champions, which would be a difficult task. They could also get in if one of the top four teams in the regular-season standings wins the MLS Cup, which would push the final berth down the table.
The situation is also shaped by the US Open Cup. St. Louis City, who already qualified as champions of that tournament, would pass their spot down if they finish among the top four, and the runner-up, Columbus Crew, would also take a place. That is why the race for the regular-season spots has become so tight in the final weeks.
Miami can still help themselves by beating New England, and the draw with Cincinnati did not eliminate them from the race. But the result turned what was a comfortable position into a situation where nearly every match in the final stretch will decide whether Messi’s team plays in the continental tournament next year.
