Cristiano Ronaldo and Portugal are preparing to begin a new UEFA Nations League campaign against Wales, with Jorge Jesus taking charge of his first competitive match as national team coach. The final result in Lisbon will immediately shape the opening Group A4 standings, although the exact consequences of a Portugal win, draw or loss could become much more significant as the campaign develops.
As the current Nations League winner, Portugal is poised to defend its title in this match with a fully fit squad available, while Wales returns to League A after earning promotion from the second tier. The visitors have also gone four matches without a win, setting up an intriguing opening night at Estadio Jose Alvalade. The match marks the competitive start of the Jorge Jesus era in Portugal following Roberto Martinez’s departure after the 2026 World Cup.
The nation was eliminated by eventual champion Spain in the quarter-finals, bringing an end to Martinez’s tenure and prompting the appointment of the experienced Jesus. The former Al-Nassr boss is also attempting to defend the Nations League title that the team won in 2024-25, having previously lifted the trophy during the competition’s inaugural 2018-19 edition.
Wales, meanwhile, earned promotion after topping its League B group under Craig Bellamy, but its return to the top tier begins with one of the toughest possible away assignments. The national team has failed to win its last four international matches and arrives in Lisbon with several important players unavailable.
Joe Rodon, Dylan Lawlor, Nathan Broadhead and Isaak Davies are among the confirmed absentees, while Harry Wilson, Rubin Colwill and Karl Darlow have also been reported as unavailable in the wider squad updates. Those absences have forced Bellamy to make changes, particularly in defense.
What the opening result means for Group A4
Portugal and Wales are competing in League A, Group A4, alongside Denmark and Norway. The group phase consists of six matches for each national team, with the top two advancing to the League A quarter-finals, while third place enters a relegation play-off and fourth place is relegated to League B.
That makes the opening fixture important even though it is only Matchday 1. A win gives a team an immediate three-point advantage, while a draw leaves both sides with one point and allows the winner of the other group fixture to establish an early lead.
ristiano Ronaldo of Portugal controls the ball under pressure of Ashley Williams of Wales
The opening match cannot determine who reaches the quarter-finals or who is relegated, but it can establish the starting gap between the four teams. With Portugal, Denmark, Norway and Wales all beginning the league phase on zero points, every result from Matchday 1 becomes part of the eventual race for the top two.
What happens if Portugal beats Wales?
A Portugal victory would give Jesus three points from his first competitive match and immediately put the defending champion in a strong position in the early table. Depending on the result between Denmark and Norway, Portugal could either sit outright at the top or share first place after the opening round.
Cristiano Ronaldo #7 of Portugal celebrates after scoring
Wales, meanwhile, would begin its return to League A with zero points, leaving Bellamy’s side needing results in its next fixtures to stay in touch with the teams competing for the quarter-final places. For Portugal, three points at home would provide an ideal platform before the next challenge away from Lisbon.
What happens if Portugal and Wales draw?
A draw would see Portugal and Wales collect one point apiece, leaving both sides potentially in the middle of the early standings depending on the Denmark-Norway result. Neither team would be eliminated from anything after Matchday 1, but the points dropped could become more significant later in a tightly contested group.
| Match Outcome for Portugal | Points Result |
| Win vs Wales | 3 Points |
| Draw vs Wales | 1 Point |
| Loss vs Wales | 0 Points |
For Wales, taking a point away against the reigning champion would represent a valuable start to its return to League A. Portugal, meanwhile, would have to make up the difference elsewhere, particularly because dropping points at home can leave less room for error during the remaining five matches.
What happens if Wales beats Portugal?
A Wales victory would give Bellamy’s side three points and an immediate position near the top of Group A4, while Portugal would remain on zero. It would also produce a dramatic opening to Jesus’ competitive reign, especially given Portugal’s historical advantage in this matchup.
Cristiano Ronaldo #7 of Portugal shows dejection after the 0-1 defeat against Spain.
Portugal has won its most recent meetings with Wales, including the 2-0 Euro 2016 semi-final, while Wales’ last victory over Portugal dates back to 1951. A defeat would therefore leave the defending champion needing a response in the next round, particularly with Norway and Denmark also competing for the top two positions.
