MLS casts doubt on its future with Apple TV for the first time

The deal between Apple and MLS to broadcast every game in the American top flight was always a risk. In 2023, MLS Commissioner Don Garber even admitted it. On one hand, removing MLS from regional sports networks as well as only offering a slim number of games on FOX Sports has produced underwhelming results. On the other hand, Apple is paying MLS $250 million annually for 10 years. That was a record-breaking deal for the American top-flight league. Yet for the first time, Garber has discussed the possibility of an MLS future without Apple.

“If [the MLS-Apple relationship] continues to grow, we’re very much in the revenue share mode with Apple, and it will turn out to be one of the greatest deals in sports history,” Garber said. “If we’re wrong and the world doesn’t go into the streaming environment the way we think it is, then you’ve just got to be smart, make a decision and if it’s not the right decision, you figure out what you need to do to go forward. But I am really bullish on Apple.”

Speaking in London at the Leaders Week conference, Garber’s conversation was littered with ifs. “If this works, we share in the revenue.” “If we’re sharing the revenue, we’re making lots of money.” However, the fact is that after almost two years since the partnership began with Apple, even with the addition of the world’s greatest player (Lionel Messi) to the league, Major League Soccer has been unable to surpass the minimum guarantee to trigger the revenue share part of the deal with Apple.

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MLS’ revenue share agreement with Apple

Apple’s deal with MLS to sell subscriptions to the MLS Season Pass streaming service includes a minimum guarantee of $250 million annually. Out of that money, MLS pays for all of the production and talent costs, which are in the tens of millions of dollars. If and when MLS reaches the number of subscriptions agreed with Apple, which is a closely guarded secret, MLS will earn 50 cents on every dollar (i.e. a 50% revenue share model).

As of October 2024, the league has not hit that magic number to trigger the revenue share agreement.

MLS hasn’t revealed any MLS Season Pass subscription numbers this year. The last reported number was 2 million subscribers as of December 2023. Since then, MLS dropped the free subscription offer through T-Mobile, which certainly would have resulted in a massive dent in the overall numbers for 2024. More worryingly, MLS failed to make a single mention of any numbers, not even in percentages, about MLS Season Pass in its Key Business Metrics report it published in July 2024.

At the same time, MLS is falling further behind compared to the TV revenue that other leagues are generating. For instance, the bottom two relegated Premier League clubs earn more TV revenue than all 29 teams in MLS.

MLS, Apple and the Future of MLS Season Pass on Apple TV

Publicly, Garber continues to try to put a positive spin on the dilemma that MLS faces: How to win over soccer fans in the United States, as well as the rest of the world.

He told Sport Business, “I’m happy for [MLS’ deal with Apple] to go on forever because what are you looking for from a media partner? Revenue, support from a marketing and promotion perspective and insights and data, which for MLS is super important and there is no bigger data insights company in the world than Apple.”

At the same time, Garber criticized MLS’ linear partners that preceded the league’s deal with Apple, stating, “We weren’t getting enough in terms of exposure, schedule, and promotion from the linear networks, because we’re not just competing against the other leagues. We’re competing against every single football league that is selling their rights in the United States.”

The only soccer rights that Apple TV owns is Major League Soccer, so it has a monopoly within the Apple ecosystem. In doing so, though, it has been largely out of sight, out of mind for sports fans who consume their content through a mixture of television and streaming services that offer a range of soccer leagues for less cost than a subscription to MLS Season Pass.

Garber will be remembered for the Apple TV deal

Since joining MLS as commissioner in 1999, Garber has transformed the league and has helped to stabilize its future in this country. Within the industry, there are questions about whether he has taken the league as far as he can, with some thinking it’s time for new leadership atop MLS. When the history of MLS is written about in a future book, much of Garber’s legacy will depend on whether the move to Apple TV was a success or not.

Even Garber is reflective. When asked about the Apple-MLS deal at the London conference, Garber uttered, “So, the most important question is, ‘Are we early? Are we on time?’ Time will tell, history will judge it.”

PHOTO: IMAGO

Additional reporting by Christopher Harris