Lionel Messi’s Argentina among winners, Kylian Mbappé’s France among losers of the FIFA 2026 World Cup Draw

The draw for the 2026 World Cup is complete, and with only six spots left to be decided during the March international break, most national teams now know their path to the global stage. With Lionel Messi’s Argentina emerging as one of the clear winners, and Kylian Mbappé’s France among the losers, the draw delivered several intriguing storylines.

Plenty of uncertainty surrounded how the groups would ultimately take shape under the expanded 48-team format, which features 12 groups and still awaits four UEFA playoff winners. With only those remaining vacancies and a few venue assignments left, Friday’s draw offered a clearer picture of which teams may have benefited most.

One of the major winners was Argentina, drawn into Group J. Messi and company will open their World Cup campaign against Algeria (No. 35 in the FIFA rankings), followed by Austria (No. 24), the group’s lone UEFA representative, and closing against Jordan (No. 66). Ranked No. 2 in the world, La Albiceleste enter the tournament as firm favorites to win the group.

Another team that came out ahead is Belgium, which will look to surpass its best World Cup finish — third place in 2018 — after being slotted into Group G. Ranked ninth in the world, the Red Devils will face Egypt (No. 34), Iran (No. 20), and New Zealand (No. 86), a manageable path on paper.

Mbappé’s France, the clear loser of the draw

Despite Kylian Mbappé’s electric form following his first Golden Boot win, Ousmane Dembélé’s recent Ballon d’Or triumph, and the continued stability under Didier Deschamps, France will have a tougher road than most. Their group-stage slate presents significant challenges for a team widely viewed as a title contender.

Placed in Group I, France will face Erling Haaland’s Norway, one of UEFA’s strongest qualifying teams, which posted a perfect record and pushed Italy into the playoffs. Les Bleus will open against Senegal, the same nation that stunned France 1–0 in 2002 after they entered as defending champions, before closing group play against the winner of the intercontinental playoff (Bolivia, Suriname, or Iraq).

The USMNT and a potential major test in Group D

As one of the tournament’s three hosts, the United States was automatically placed into Group D, awaiting only the identity of its opponents. Mauricio Pochettino’s side enters with elevated expectations following a strong recent window, but significant challenges loom in the group stage.

The USMNT will open against Paraguay before facing Australia, two nations the Americans recently defeated in friendlies (both by 2–1 scores), but neither matchup will be straightforward. The final group opponent will be the winner of UEFA Playoff Path Cn a spot that could go to Italy, which would make it one of the most difficult obstacles Pochettino and company could draw.