How Man City’s win, draw, or loss against Crystal Palace could affect the 2025-26 Premier League title race

Manchester City host Crystal Palace on Wednesday, May 13, at the Etihad Stadium in Matchday 31 of the 2025-26 Premier League. Five points behind leaders Arsenal, the Citizens are looking for a positive result to keep their fading title hopes alive.

The fixture was originally scheduled for March 21 but had to be moved after the Carabao Cup final against Arsenal was played at Wembley the following day. With the trophy secured, City and Palace now finally meet in one of the final fixtures of the season for both clubs.

City head into the game having not lost a Premier League match since their defeat to Manchester United on January 17, posting nine wins and four draws since that result. Crystal Palace, meanwhile, have been prioritizing their run in the UEFA Conference League, where they are at the final stage, and have struggled domestically, managing just one win in their last five league games while sitting 15th in the standings.

How a Man City win affects the Premier League title race

A victory over Crystal Palace would cut Arsenal’s lead to just two points, with City moving to 77 points from 36 games while the Gunners sit on 79. The gap would be tight, but the situation would still favor Arsenal.

In that scenario, City would need the Gunners to drop points in at least one of their two remaining games, as Guardiola’s side would not control their own destiny. Goal difference could also come into play as a tiebreaker, but one thing is clear: Manchester City cannot win the 2025-26 Premier League on their own. That power rests entirely with Arsenal.

How a Man City draw affects the Premier League title race

A draw against Crystal Palace would be a significant blow to City’s already slim title chances. It would leave them on 75 points from 36 games, four behind Arsenal, and needing a near-perfect combination of results to have any hope of overtaking them.

In that scenario, a single Arsenal win from their final two matches would be enough to clinch the title for the first time since the “Invincibles” season of 2003-04. The Gunners close out the league campaign against Burnley on May 18 and Crystal Palace on May 24, before the Champions League final against PSG, and they are heavy favorites in both fixtures.

How a Man City loss affects the Premier League title race

If Crystal Palace pull off an upset at the Etihad, City’s title hopes would be all but mathematically extinguished. A defeat would leave them on 74 points from 36 games, five behind Arsenal, and dependent on a remarkable sequence of events to have any chance of catching up.

To still have a theoretical shot at the title without relying purely on goal difference, City would need to win both of their remaining matches against Bournemouth and Aston Villa, while Arsenal would need to lose both of theirs. For goal difference to become the deciding factor, City would still need two wins while hoping Arsenal lose one game and draw the other, a scenario that, given the Gunners’ run-in and current form, borders on the unrealistic.