Christian Pulisic’s Milan emerges as UEFA Europa League favorite with surprise contenders close behind

Christian Pulisic’s Milan is heading into the UEFA Europa League with plenty to prove after missing out on Champions League soccer, but early expectations suggest Ruben Amorim’s side could have a genuine chance of going all the way. The latest projections have Milan at the front of a remarkably tight group of contenders, although several unexpected names are already being tipped to challenge the Italian giant.

The 2026-27 competition is set to provide a different kind of European test, with the expanded league-phase format guaranteeing eight matches before the knockout rounds begin. For Milan, it represents both an opportunity to win silverware and potentially find a route back into the Champions League.

According to the latest Polymarket winner probabilities, Milan is currently given a 15% chance of winning the Europa League, putting it narrowly ahead of another Italian heavyweight. The gap is extremely small, however, suggesting the market expects a wide-open competition rather than a runaway favorite.

Alessandro Costacurta has also backed the Serie A outfit to make a deep run in the tournament. “Milan and Juventus are favourites in the Europa League and must at least reach the semifinals. Otherwise, keep an eye on the English teams, especially Bournemouth,” the former Milan defender told SportWeek.

The surprise contenders emerge

The prediction market places Juventus at 14%, just one percentage point behind Milan, while Bayer Leverkusen follows at 12%. However, the most eye-catching part of the list is the presence of three English clubs among the seven leading candidates.

Bournemouth is currently rated at 11%, Crystal Palace at 10% and Sunderland at 6%, putting all three surprisingly high in the early projections. Real Sociedad also sits at 6%, showing just how tightly packed the field is beyond the two Italian favorites.

Bournemouth’s position is particularly striking because Costacurta specifically identified the club as one to watch. Crystal Palace enters the competition with European momentum after winning the previous season’s Conference League, while Sunderland’s inclusion reflects the growing optimism surrounding its return to continental competition.

Pulisic and Milan have huge opportunity

Milan’s league-phase schedule will provide an immediate test, beginning with Benfica at San Siro on September 16. Amorim’s side will then travel to Salzburg before facing Bournemouth away, with Ferencvaros, Olympiacos, Sunderland, Levski Sofia and Ararat-Armenia completing the league-phase schedule.

The format means the Rossoneri must navigate eight matches against eight different opponents, with four home games and four away. The top eight teams qualify directly for the round of 16, while those finishing ninth through 24th must go through a two-legged playoff.

For the 27-year-old winger, the Europa League could become an important part of his campaign after a complicated start to the season. The American forward has remained a major attacking option for Milan, while the club’s Europa League squad includes him alongside established names such as Luka Modric, Adrien Rabiot and Goncalo Ramos.

The Europa League also provides Milan with a potential shortcut back to Europe’s premier competition. Winning the tournament would secure Champions League qualification, making the competition particularly valuable after the club missed out on the top four in Serie A last season.