What result do Atletico Madrid need against Botafogo to advance in the FIFA Club World Cup 2025?

Atletico Madrid face Botafogo in a dramatic Group B finale at the FIFA Club World Cup 2025, in what could mark a shocking early exit from the tournament. With everything on the line, questions remain about exactly what Los Colchoneros need to reach the Round of 16.

Matchday 3 in Group B sees Atletico Madrid (3 points) take on Botafogo (6), while Paris Saint-Germain (3) meet the Seattle Sounders (0). Assuming PSG claim victory and move to six points, Atletico would be on the brink of elimination unless a very specific set of results unfolds.

Atletico Madrid, with one eye on PSG vs. Sounders

The Colchoneros cannot overtake Botafogo in the standings, but they can pull even with a win. If PSG also secure a win, all three teams would be tied with six points, triggering the first tiebreaker: head-to-head results. Since each team would have one win and one loss, goal difference in those direct matchups would determine who advances — and that puts the Spanish side at a disadvantage.

Atletico Madrid’s 4-0 loss to PSG leaves them at -4 in head-to-head goal difference. The French side, with that dominant win and a 1-0 loss to Botafogo, sit at +3. Botafogo stand at +1. Therefore, Atletico would need to beat Botafogo by two goals to advance outright, regardless of other results.

If Seattle manage to hold PSG to a draw, a simple win over the Brazilian club would be enough for Atletico to advance. And if the Sounders somehow pull off a major upset and defeat PSG, a draw would be enough for Diego Simeone’s side to move on.

However, if Atletico lose to Botafogo, their tournament run will end in the group stage — a stunning early exit from the Club World Cup. With both matches played simultaneously, the qualification picture could shift dramatically as the games unfold.