Spurs-Arsenal: Most important derby of the Premier League era

Back in November, I wrote about that edition of the north London derby, which was shaping up to be the most important in years. That game was important in its own way, but after the past few months of soccer, it turns out that that game was an appetizer for the return leg at White Hart Lane, which is certainly the most important derby in the Premier League era, and one of the most important in the long history of this blood feud.

Spurs missed an opportunity to wrestle the top spot in the Premier League away from Leicester City, but that doesn’t mean it has passed them by. Going away to West Ham was the toughest match they’ve faced since possibly the last north London derby, and its place on the calendar did Pochettino’s men no favors. It doesn’t change the fact that they’re in good form, and confidence won’t be an issue, even after a poor performance. They have found ways after defeats to change the narrative quickly and swiftly with good performances, which they did after their derby loss in the League Cup (a 4-1 thrashing of Manchester City followed), their collapse against Newcastle (dismantled Saints at St. Mary’s), and their exit from the FA Cup (outclassing Fiorentina and Swansea). Their true strength in character has come in those performances, in which they’ve won five and drawn one after their six total losses this campaign before Wednesday.

On the other side, Arsenal seem to be playing the role Spurs usually play in these derbies. They have lost three in a row in all competitions, and those performances left quite a lot to be desired. They certainly had chances against Barcelona, but couldn’t finish them, and looked labored, slow and laggard against Manchester United and Swansea. Arsenal have no hope to beat Spurs at the Lane playing like that. This is one of the biggest test of Arsene Wenger’s mettle ever with the Gunners, and this chance may be his last to prove the common refrain about Arsenal is nothing more than tabloid scuttlebutt.

The last two league derbies should offer us a clue about how this one may evolve. Spurs were the dominant force in both, though Arsenal were able to nick a goal in both games, one at the front end of the game and the other at the back end. Spurs showing against Arsenal at the Lane last February was an indicator of what Spurs’ press would evolve into this season, and anchored by Mousa Dembele, Spurs ran roughshod over Arsenal after Mesut Ozil scored the opening goal. Arsenal didn’t have the fitness, or the midfielders, to compete. In the Emirates game back in November, much the same story emerged, even though the venue was different. However, Spurs were not clinical enough to put the Gunners away when they had the chance to and Kieran Gibbs salvaged a point in a game in which even most Arsenal supporters admitted Spurs were superior.

On Saturday, Arsenal have to fight back without Laurent Koscielny and Petr Cech, both of whom are critical to any title hopes Arsenal possess. Spurs may at long last have Dembele back, which would dramatically change the way Spurs have looked since his injury. Pochettino has depth, but no one to replace exactly what Dembele offers to Spurs in midfield, namely his dribbling ability and his talent for seamlessly transitioning the team from defense to attack. Ryan Mason, Tom Carroll and even Christian Eriksen have tried to replace Dembele, but the team has played differently without their Belgian star, and it has affected them negatively. Arsenal will likely be on the back foot and hope to pick back Spurs on the break, and will also likely try to press high in order to unsettle the deeper midfielders like West Ham did successfully, but they don’t have the athletes in midfield that West Ham had, nor will they play three centerbacks to counteract the attacking band of the Lilywhites.

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Mauricio Pochettino has described this Spurs squad as a “family,” which is apt considering their performances this season. Arsenal’s “family” is increasingly being torn apart by infighting and questions as to whether the clan leader can motivate the way he once did. Spurs are ahead of Arsenal in the table, and still will be even if they lose. But for the first time in many derbies, it is they who are the assured, and the men in red who are the weary and mentally fragile.

Spurs would then be favorites, but derbies are often the strangest of games. In this incredibly strange season where nothing has made sense, even in a situation where the normal roles have been reversed, would anyone be surprised to see Arsenal win?

It may be Wenger’s last stand, and a chance to see the rarest of the rare: a power shift in North London football. NBC’s promo for the game repeats this refrain, “It may get loud”. It will be very loud at the Lane, and the fallout from Saturday could determine the future of this rivalry, and the Premier League title.