How Real Madrid’s win, draw, or loss against Bayern today could affect the UEFA Champions League bracket

While Real Madrid did not deliver a standout performance in the first leg, they managed to stay alive against Bayern Munich thanks to Kylian Mbappé and his late goal. Needing to overturn the scoreline, Los Blancos could opt for an offensive approach in search of making the difference. Despite this, they require a specific scenario to secure their place in the semifinals of the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League.

Bayern Munich have proven to be one of the best teams in the world. Led by Harry Kane and Manuel Neuer, they have dominated their opponents throughout the season. In addition, coach Vincent Kompany welcomes back Serge Gnabry, who claims to be in peak physical condition and will be key to organizing the offense. However, they will face a tough challenge defensively, as los Blancos already exploited their spaces in the first leg with Vinícius Jr. and Mbappé.

The German side dominated much of the first leg, but they suffered a drop in performance after substituting Serge Gnabry and Konrad Laimer, as they were the ones leading and supporting the attack. As a result, both are expected to start and play key roles in pressing Real Madrid, who will be without Aurélien Tchouaméni—forcing coach Álvaro Arbeloa to adjust the midfield, a very tough challenge for the second leg.

Los Blancos will have to make changes to their starting lineup, as Tchouaméni’s absence is significant. Therefore, coach Arbeloa is reportedly set to deploy Federico Valverde as a defensive midfielder, as Eduardo Camavinga did not fully convince with his performance against Girona FC. In addition, Jude Bellingham could play a crucial role, as he impressed in the first leg and appears to be back in top form after his physical issues.

How could Real Madrid’s win against Bayern affect the UEFA Champions League bracket?

In case Real Madrid secure a victory over Bayern Munich, they would not immediately guarantee a place in the 2025–26 Champions League semifinals. Trailing by just one goal in the aggregate score, Los Blancos need to win by a two-goal margin against the German side to advance. Should they accomplish this, they would face PSG, another top contender for the title, as they pursue their second consecutive Champions League victory.

How could Real Madrid’s draw against Bayern affect the UEFA Champions League bracket?

Holding just one-goal margin in the overall score, Real Madrid would be directly eliminated of the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League in case they draw against Bayern Munich. For that reason, the German side would be getting a ticket for the semifinals, for a second consecutive season, facing PSG in one of the best clashes, as both have been dominating.

If Los Blancos clinch a victory by a one-goal margin, they would level the aggregate score, opening the door to compete for a place in the next round of the tournament. As this is the second leg, a winner would have to be decided in extra time, with two periods of 15 minutes each. If there is still no winner, the match would go to a penalty shootout, where a definitive winner would to face PSG.

How could Real Madrid’s defeat against Bayern affect the UEFA Champions League bracket?

Having failed to secure a decisive victory in the first leg, Real Madrid would be eliminated from the 2025-26 Champions League if they lose to Bayern Munich. For that reason, los Blancos would go two seasons without reaching the tournament’s semifinals—something that hasn’t happened since 2020, when they were eliminated in the round of 16 for two consecutive seasons. Meanwhile, the German side returns to this stage after a two-year absence.