PSG could be eliminated after unexpected loss to Botafogo in the Club World Cup

Paris Saint-Germain will need to do the math heading into the final matchday of Group B after a 1–0 loss to Botafogo in the second round. The reigning UEFA Champions League winners are now in a complicated position as they fight to stay in contention for the FIFA Club World Cup title.

The club that arrived as a favorite in the new global championship suffered a surprise defeat to the Brazilian side. In the 38th minute, a strike from Igor Jesus gave ‘Fogão’ the lead — and ultimately, the win.

With this result, PSG remains at 3 points, sharing that total with Atlético Madrid, but holding second place due to a better goal tally and their 4–0 win over Atleti in the opening match. Meanwhile, Botafogo leads the group with 6 points, after also defeating Seattle Sounders 2–1 in their first game.

In the final group match, PSG will face Seattle, who sit at the bottom with 0 points and no wins. The Parisians must win to have a shot at advancing to the next round.

What are the possible scenarios for Luis Enrique’s team?

If PSG wins, they qualify regardless of other results, even if Atlético Madrid wins as well, because PSG already beat Atlético in their head-to-head matchup.

If PSG draws, the situation becomes trickier. They’ll need to wait on the result between Atlético Madrid and Botafogo. If Botafogo wins or draws, PSG advances, because they’ll finish above Atlético on head-to-head. But if Atlético wins, PSG is eliminated.

The worst-case scenario for PSG is a loss to Seattle. In that case, they are automatically eliminated, even if their goal difference is better. In the Club World Cup, wins carry more weight than goal difference, so even though Seattle currently has -3 and PSG +3, a win puts the MLS side through and knocks out the Parisians.

To avoid all complications, PSG must win. Only a victory will guarantee their place in the knockout rounds and keep alive their dream of adding the Club World Cup to a season that already saw them lift the Champions League trophy for the first time.