Lamine Yamal’s 2026 Ballon d’Or hopes take major hit as new favorite takes over

Lamine Yamal’s hopes of winning the 2026 Ballon d’Or have suffered a significant setback as the race for soccer’s most prestigious individual award enters its final weeks. Despite another impressive campaign with Barcelona and Spain, the teenager is facing growing competition from a rival whose extraordinary goalscoring numbers have changed the bookmakers’ predictions.

The award’s 70th-anniversary ceremony will take place on October 26 at the London Palladium, marking the first time the event has been held outside Paris. With voting having closed on September 28, attention has shifted toward the leading contenders and the performances that could ultimately decide the winner.

Yamal entered the final stage of the race as one of the strongest candidates after helping Barcelona win La Liga and playing a major role in Spain’s World Cup triumph. At just 19, he has an opportunity to become the youngest Ballon d’Or winner in history, adding another milestone to an already remarkable career.

His rise through the rankings has been rapid. Yamal finished eighth in 2024 before becoming the runner-up in 2025 behind Ousmane Dembele, while also winning consecutive Kopa Trophies as the world’s best young player.

His 2025-26 campaign further strengthened his credentials, with 24 goals and 18 assists in 45 appearances for club and country, according to the supplied reports. Barcelona’s domestic success and Spain’s international achievements give him a compelling case, although the latest odds suggest that individual statistics could prove decisive.

Harry Kane emerges as the leading contender

The player now heading the bookmakers’ rankings is Harry Kane, whose prolific season for Bayern Munich and England has made him the favorite to claim his first Ballon d’Or. The England captain reportedly scored 73 goals in 65 competitive appearances during the 2025-26 campaign, including 61 for Bayern and 12 for his national team.

Kane also collected major honors with the German giant, winning the Bundesliga, the DFB-Pokal and the European Golden Shoe after scoring 36 league goals. His individual production has attracted strong endorsements, including support from the club’s honorary president Uli Hoeness. “He would have deserved it enormously. If he doesn’t deserve it this year, then when?” Hoeness said, according to Münchner Abendzeitung.

England coach Thomas Tuchel has also praised Kane’s development, saying: “He is getting better and better.” Kane’s goalscoring record has helped him move ahead of Yamal in the betting market, even though the Spaniard has enjoyed considerable team success.

The latest odds reveal changing race

According to the UK’s leading betting odds comparison website Oddschecker, Kane is the clear favorite at best odds of 5/4, while Yamal follows at 2/1. Those prices imply approximate chances of 44% and 33%, respectively, although bookmaker odds are estimates rather than guarantees of the final result. The movement in the market has been particularly notable.

Several bookmakers shortened Kane’s odds as the voting deadline approached, while Yamal drifted from shorter prices toward 2/1, suggesting that confidence in the Englishman had increased. Recent international performances may have contributed to the shift. Kane scored twice against Czechia on October 6, while Yamal failed to register a goal or assist in Spain’s 2-1 victory over Croatia, although one match alone cannot determine the outcome of an award covering an entire season.

Kylian Mbappe is another major contender, sitting third in the reported odds at 14/1. The Real Madrid forward won the World Cup Golden Boot with ten goals and finished as the top scorer in both La Liga and the Champions League, but his case has been weakened by the club’s failure to win a major trophy.

Rodri, the 2024 Ballon d’Or winner, is also in contention after captaining Spain to World Cup glory and collecting the tournament’s Golden Ball. Lionel Messi, an eight-time winner, remains among the outsiders, while reigning champion Dembele faces a difficult path to retaining his title.