Analyzing Liverpool's problems at both ends of the field

Their last two league matches have pretty much summed up Liverpool’s season: dominating against a much better opponent (on paper) yet somehow throwing away a result at home against Manchester United; struggling against a team they should beat, looking unable to break down a packed defense before scraping through in 5-4 game of the season contender at Norwich City.

Liverpool look very, very competent in the middle of the pitch under Jürgen Klopp. The midfield presses well, and presses as a pack. The side remains compact and keeps its shape amid all that running, and when they win the ball, they make decisions quickly. After his first game in charge against Tottenham Hotspur, Klopp bemoaned the fact that Liverpool didn’t look up and use the whole breadth of the pitch when they won possession, restricting their game. Now they often switch the play and work it around comfortably.

At either end, it’s a different story. Offensively, the table above (compiled with stats from Transfermarkt) makes for grim reading. Liverpool’s attack has not functioned in a sane way for two seasons. Under two different managers, but without the genius of Luis Suárez, Liverpool have not been able to put chances away. Suárez was a monster, anybody who saw his goal against Norwich from halfway down the pitch would recognize that, and it’s no surprise that the shots decreased slightly with him gone. But the drop-off in chance conversion (admittedly with Daniel Sturridge also injured for much of the past two seasons) is breathtaking.

The cause of the problem is two-fold. Chance quality has gone down as Liverpool’s best players have left or been injured for the past two seasons, I’ve written before about Philippe Coutinho’s tendency to fire from the hip 30 yards away rather than play the defense-splitting through-ball he’s capable of. For every belter that goes in, there’s dozens more that fly into row Z and do not help the team’s cause.

But also, Liverpool’s players don’t get into the right positions enough to be fed good chances that are easily convertible. Goal poacher Danny Ings is injured, and Roberto Firmino is the one person that plays in and around the box, where the easy chances arrive. His two goals against Norwich were demonstrably the type of football Liverpool should be looking to play all the time. The first was breaking past the defensive line in the box, one on one with the keeper (albeit at a tight angle). Ideally someone would be in the middle for a cut-back or a rebound, but still a shot from there is better than one from the edge of the box.

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The second was perfect, a quick winning of the ball and flick from Firmino releasing James Milner, able to find Lallana breaking past the defensive line. Firmino then went straight into the box, running past the defense again to be first to a central position. His shot was taken right in front of the goalkeeper, the middle of the danger area where you have the absolute maximum chance to score.

Norwich are in the position they are in the league because they’re hapless, but this is the type of football that teams aspiring to the Champions League need to play. It’s easy to settle for curlers from 20 yards, but that doesn’t get you very far.

Again, the table above is such painful reading because, like on offense, at first glance Liverpool seem to be doing a lot right. The 13/14 season is difficult to compare because of all the fast starts Liverpool got off to, which meant they could sit back, absorb some shots, and pick teams off on the counter. However, the defense on the surface has been improving, opponent shots have decreased, and Simon Mignolet even had the most clean sheets in the 2015 calendar year (yes, you read that right).

However, when Liverpool do allow shots, they seem to be the worst type to allow. Eight goals out of the 32 conceded have been from corners (if you count Norwich’s first goal, which was from the second ball after Liverpool couldn’t clear). That by definition means shots have been in the box, very close to the goalkeeper.

Norwich’s first goal was a back heel right in front of Mignolet, their second almost exactly like Firmino’s opener, with Naismith breaking past the defensive line to be one on one from a tight angle. For large portions of the game Liverpool’s defense were in control, but when they muck up, they do so in catastrophic proportions.

Why? The side plays a high line (they have to in order to stay compact with a furious midfield press), they’re not very tall (so it’s difficult to win headers in the air, and to get enough power on clearing headers to remove danger), and the side is struggling with injuries (no center back pairing has played together for long enough to be comfortable).

There also seems to be a problem of concentration, individual mistakes that seem to always lead to goals. Alberto Moreno’s double foul against Norwich for their third goal was comical, while in the first Merseyside derby of the season, Emre Can panicked and cleared a ball against his own teammate, allowing Romelu Lukaku to sweep in the loose ball. At a certain point, these incidents stop being unlucky and start becoming systemic.

Finally, although Simon Mignolet has been faced with a lot of very difficult shots, he has not been up to par. At a time when the Premier League is flushed with excellent goalkeepers, Liverpool have one of the worst ones in the league. Mignolet has made about half the saves of the Jack Butland, who leads the league, and his save percentage (62%) is 18^th among goalkeepers. When the backup Adam Bogdan inspires even less confidence there isn’t a real alternative, but this is a position Liverpool must upgrade soon.

They’re an odd team Liverpool, a team full of Adam Lallanas. They do a lot of things well and are capable of great things, but too often they fail to reach the top.