What happens if Inter Miami wins, draws, or loses their final Leagues Cup group match

**© Leonardo Fernandez**A victory guarantees qualification. But a draw or loss?

Inter Miami currently sits in third place in the standings with 5 points and is just one step away from qualifying for the 2025 Leagues Cup quarterfinals — but nothing is guaranteed yet. To make things more complicated, they’ll be without Lionel Messi, who suffered an injury against Necaxa, for their final group match against Pumas UNAM, who also have 5 points and are playing for a lot.

With this scenario, The Herons are playing for their place in the next round: they need to finish among the top four MLS teams. A win would place them among the best eight in the tournament, but… what happens if they draw or lose in their final match? Let’s break down all the possibilities.

As mentioned earlier, a win automatically sends them through to the next round. But what happens if the Florida side draws or loses? First, it’s important to remember that if the match ends in a draw after 90 minutes, there will be a penalty shootout, with the winner earning one extra point (meaning two points total, and the loser gets one).

The tournament’s tiebreakers are as follows:

Most wins in regulation time (90 minutes)
Goal differential
Goals scored
Fewest goals conceded
Fair play points (fewer yellow/red cards)
Drawing of lots

Now that’s clear, here are the different scenarios:

If Inter Miami draws and wins on penalties

They would finish with 7 points, which should be enough to advance — unless four or more teams surpass them. They’ll need to watch out for Seattle Sounders and Portland Timbers (currently at 6 points), and chasing teams like Minnesota, LA Galaxy, Columbus Crew, Orlando City, Cincinnati, and New York Red Bulls, all with 4 points. If four of these teams win in regulation, Inter could be left out based on the tiebreakers.

If Inter Miami draws and loses on penalties

In this case, Inter Miami would end with 6 points, putting them in a much tougher position. In addition to the eight teams already mentioned, they would now have to compete with clubs like Colorado Rapids, NYCFC, Real Salt Lake, and LAFC, all currently with 3 points. If four of these twelve win in regulation and surpass Inter based on tiebreakers, they’ll be eliminated.

If Inter Miami loses to Pumas UNAM

They’ll finish with 5 points, and would need a miracle to advance. The only way they could qualify would be if multiple Liga MX teams win, knocking other MLS teams out of contention. Even CF Montréal, with 2 points, would have a shot. Teams with 3 points could tie Inter with a draw and penalty win, or pass them outright with a win. Bottom line: Inter would be virtually eliminated from the Leagues Cup.