Lamine Yamal, Ousmane Dembele, Kylian Mbappe, or someone else? Breaking down the real criteria to win 2025 Ballon d’Or

Every soccer fan knows the names. They lit up the 2024-25 season with brilliance, consistency, and moments that took the breath away. But when it comes to crowning the best player in the world, the process is far more complex than a simple popularity contest. Lamine Yamal, Ousmane Dembele, Kylian Mbappe, and Cole Palmer are all in the conversation—but how exactly will the 2025 Ballon d’Or winner be decided?

The ceremony will take place on Monday, September 22, at the iconic Theatre du Chatelet in Paris, marking the 69th edition of the Ballon d’Or, a trophy whose legacy stretches back to 1956 and legendary Englishman Sir Stanley Matthews.

While speculation around the winner dominates headlines, the true criteria behind the Ballon d’Or remain hidden in plain sight. Since 2022, the award no longer reflects calendar year performances but instead spans the club season—from July 1 to June 30. This change ensures that entire campaigns are measured evenly, from league play to continental tournaments.

So, what makes a Ballon d’Or winner? According to France Football, three pillars determine the outcome:

• Individual performances, including decisive impact and consistency
• Team achievements, both domestic and international
• Sporting conduct and class, on and off the pitch

“Soccer’s ultimate award is about more than just talent or goals,” states France Football. “It’s about leadership, collective impact, and what you did when it mattered most.”

The exclusive jury and voting breakdown

The outcome of the Ballon d’Or lies in the hands of a very exclusive group: 100 journalists representing the top 100 nations in the FIFA Men’s World Ranking. Each journalist is asked to rank their top five players from a shortlist of 30 nominees, which is compiled by the editorial teams at France Football and L’Equipe.

Each ranked vote carries points:

• 1st place = 6 points
• 2nd place = 4 points
• 3rd place = 3 points
• 4th place = 2 points
• 5th place = 1 point

The player with the most cumulative points wins the Ballon d’Or. In the case of a tie, it is resolved first by the number of first-place votes, then second-place, and so on. If a deadlock persists, France Football retains the final decision.

Notably, a player’s career record no longer plays any role in the voting. “It’s not about legacy. It’s about what you did last season,” emphasized the award organizers.

Dembele, Yamal, Mbappe… or someone else?

As the 2025 ceremony approaches, Ousmane Dembele remains a hot favorite after a stunning season with Paris Saint-Germain, where he bagged 35 goals and 16 assists, helping his side to a domestic treble before falling short in the Club World Cup final.

Then there’s Lamine Yamal, who exploded at just 18 years old with 18 goals and 25 assists in Barcelona’s La Liga and Copa del Rey double. But his club’s Champions League semifinal loss to Inter may dent his claim.

Kylian Mbappe, Cole Palmer, and Jude Bellingham are also in the frame, each with their own case built on brilliance and impact. Erling Haaland, Kevin De Bruyne, and even PSG duo Vitinha and Nuno Mendes have been mentioned by prominent figures, including Jose Mourinho, who insists that team success—especially winning the Champions League—should weigh heavily in the decision.

“For me, any individual trophy must always have a direct connection to titles,” Mourinho said in a recent interview. “Football is a team game. It’s not only about magic moments.”