Bundesliga relegation scenarios: What each club needs to survive

While the title has been decided for some time, the relegation scenarios in the Bundesliga will go down to the last day of the season on Saturday, May 18. As things stand, the only team confirmed to be dropping into the second division is Darmstadt. With 17 points through 33 games, Darmstadt is returning to the 2. Bundesliga after a singular season in the top flight.

Yet, there are four teams involved in the relegation race in the final, matchday. In 17th, the best Köln can do is reach the relegation playoffs. Union Berlin, a Champions League team this season, is occupying 16th. In that spot, Union Berlin would take on the third-place team from the second division in a two-legged promotion playoff. However, Union Berlin can assure its safety by leapfrogging either Bochum or Mainz. Two points back of Mainz and three of Bochum, Union Berlin is the only team out of the four seeking safety that is playing at home on Saturday.

Each of the games is happening simultaneously on Saturday. Kickoff for each of the games is at 9:30 a.m. ET, with coverage available for three of the four games with relegation implications available on ESPN+. The Bundesliga TV coverage page lists the games that fans in the United States can watch. Here is what is at stake in each of those contests.

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Various Bundesliga relegation scenarios

As stated, the only team that is assured of relegation is Darmstadt. The next most likely is 17th-placed Köln.

1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. FC Köln

Köln is just searching for a spot in the playoffs against the third-place team from the second division. To reach that spot, Koln must defeat Heidenheim on the road. But, that is not the only thing it needs. Koln requires that Union Berlin loses at home against Freiburg. Plus, Köln needs to make up the deficit in the goal difference it faces. Union Berlin has a better goal differential by three goals. Therefore, Koln needs to win by three goals and Union Berlin loses. Or, Köln could win by two while Union Berlin loses by two.

Union Berlin vs. Freiburg

Union Berlin controls its destiny regarding the playoffs. A win or a draw confirms at least a shot to stay in the Bundesliga. A loss will not be the end of the world depending on what happens in the Koln game.

If Union Berlin wants to stay up automatically by finishing 15th or 14th, the first step is to win. Based on Mainz’s goal differential, Union Berlin would need Mainz to lose to jump it in the table. However, Bochum, which is three points above Union Berlin, does not have as good of a goal record as Union Berlin. If Union wins and Bochum loses, they would be level on points, and Union Berlin would go to at least 15th. If Mainz were to also lose, Union Berlin would move above it in the table.

Wolfsburg vs. Mainz

The worst-case scenario for Mainz is the relegation playoff against Dusseldorf. That requires a loss and a Union Berlin win. Mainz’s goal differential is strong enough where a draw should guarantee safety. The only way a draw does not guarantee safety is if Union Berlin wins by 12 against Freiburg. Perhaps the most unlikely of the Bundesliga relegation scenarios.

A win also guarantees safety, and depending on what happens in the Bochum game, Mainz could climb to 13th in the table and jump Borussia Monchengladbach.

Werder Bremen vs. Bochum

A win or a draw secures safety for Bochum, which is three points above Union Berlin’s 16th spot. However, of those three teams, Bochum has the worst goal differential. Therefore, if Union Berlin wins, Mainz draws or wins and Bochum loses, Bochum would fall two spots into the relegation playoff against Dusseldorf. Like Mainz, a win over Werder Bremen could push Bochum up a spot into 13th should Borussia Monchengladbach drop points.

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