Lionel Messi vs Cristiano Ronaldo: Economist who predicted the last three World Cup winners forecasts the match and a new champion

An economist who set out to challenge his colleagues’ ability to predict events such as market changes created a model that has correctly predicted the last three World Cup winners. For this edition, Joachim Klement has released a new projection that includes a potential Lionel Messi vs Cristiano Ronaldo matchup.

Klement’s model, which previously predicted the World Cup titles won by Germany, France, and Argentina, has been put to work once again. In his projection, Portugal win their group ahead of Colombia, while Argentina finish first in theirs ahead of Austria.

That would set up Portugal against Ivory Coast and Argentina against Uruguay in the Round of 32, with both teams advancing. In the next round, Argentina defeat Turkey with a goal from Messi, while Portugal overcome Switzerland if Roberto Martínez does not start Ronaldo, according to Klement.

The quarterfinals are where the model predicts a meeting between the two legends. What could be a memorable matchup ends with Portugal advancing in extra time to reach the semifinals, where they would defeat England before eventually falling in the final.

The champion

Portugal’s run in this projection would be historic, but it would not end with the trophy they are seeking. In the final, they would face the Netherlands, who are predicted to win the World Cup for the first time despite a tournament with very few goals.

The Dutch are projected to win their group before facing a difficult challenge in the newly introduced round, where they would edge a strong Morocco side by a narrow margin before taking on Canada.

In the quarterfinals, the prediction becomes very specific, as Klement forecasts the Netherlands defeating France 1-0 through an own goal. A rematch of a previous World Cup final would then follow in the semifinals against Spain. The run would conclude with a victory over Portugal in the final to lift the trophy.

United States’ path

In Klement’s 20-page publication, there is a prediction for every team. That includes the United States, whom the economist does not expect to make a deep run.

While the group-stage projection has the Americans finishing third behind Australia and Turkey, they still appear in the knockout stage. However, their journey would be short, as they are projected to lose comfortably to Germany in the Round of 32.