How Al Nassr’s win, draw, or loss against Al-Hilal could affect the 2025-26 Saudi Pro League title race

The Saudi Pro League season has reached the moment everyone in Riyadh, and far beyond the Middle East, has been waiting for. Cristiano Ronaldo and Al-Nassr are preparing for a massive showdown against Karim Benzema and Al-Hilal on Matchday 33, with the outcome expected to shape the final stretch of one of the most dramatic title races in recent league history.

One of the biggest storylines surrounding the derby remains the rivalry between Cristiano Ronaldo and Karim Benzema. The former Real Madrid teammates are once again fighting for silverware, only now on opposite sides of Saudi Arabia’s biggest soccer rivalry.

Benzema’s arrival strengthened Al-Hilal significantly during the season and added another superstar dimension to the championship battle. Ronaldo, meanwhile, continues to lead from the front at 41 years old and recently reached another remarkable milestone.

Millions are expected to watch the match live as both teams battle for supremacy in Riyadh. Heading into Matchday 33, Al-Nassr sits first with 82 points from 32 matches, while Al-Hilal follows with 77 points from 31 matches and still holds a game in hand.

Jorge Jesus’ players have produced an outstanding campaign so far, winning 27 matches while scoring 86 goals and conceding only 26. Al-Hilal, meanwhile, remains unbeaten in league play this season, although eight draws have prevented the club from overtaking its rival at the summit.

What happens if Al-Nassr wins?

The significance of Tuesday’s derby becomes even clearer when examining the remaining fixtures. Al-Nassr will play one final league match after the derby, away against Damac, while Al-Hilal still has two more matches remaining because of its game in hand.

Al-Nassr’s victory over Al-Hilal would put Jorge Jesus’ team at 85 points, eight points ahead of Al-Hilal, and guarantee the Saudi Pro League championship. Any outcome versus Damac on the last Matchday would be irrelevant in that case.

Additionally, Ronaldo would win his first league championship in six years; his most recent domestic victory occurred with Juventus in 2020. Since arriving in Riyadh, he has collected goals, records, and global headlines, but the league title has remained the one major prize still missing.

What happens if the match ends in a draw?

A draw would keep Al-Nassr in control of the race, although tension would remain until the final days of the season. Al-Nassr would move to 83 points, while Al-Hilal would rise to 78 with two matches still left against Neom and Al-Fayha. For Ronaldo to win the league, all he would need is a tie in Al-Nassr’s last game.

However, this scenario would leave the door slightly open for Al-Hilal, but Simone Inzaghi’s side would still need to win the next two games. The pressure would then shift toward Ronaldo and his teammates to avoid any mistake against Damac in its final league fixture.

For the visitors, even a draw would preserve hope because of the extra fixture. The Blue Waves surely understand that remaining unbeaten this deep into the campaign still gives the club a realistic chance to complete a late comeback.

What happens if Al-Hilal wins?

The entire title race could be flipped upside down if Al-Hilal leaves Al Awwal Park with all three points. A victory for Al-Hilal would reduce the gap to only two points, while the club would still possess a game in hand against Neom.

Should Al-Hilal then defeat both Neom and Al-Fayha, the club could finish the season on 86 points. Even if Al-Nassr wins against Damac afterward and reaches 85 points, it would not be enough. With no league titles to his name since his arrival in the Middle East, Ronaldo would be the only one who loses in this hypothetical situation.