Premier League likely to grab fifth Champions League spot

The Premier League could still have five clubs qualify for next season’s UEFA Champions League. Due to upcoming format changes of the tournament, two European top-flight divisions will earn an extra spot in the 2024/25 competition. This comes down to the fact that the Champions League expands to 36 teams.

Starting next season, the Champions League will adopt a ‘Swiss league’ style format. Instead of eight groups of four teams, all of the qualified clubs will play in one big division. Teams will play eight total matches in league play, with four matches being played at home and the remaining four on the road.

The two extra places for the 2024/25 Champions League will be determined by UEFA coefficient rankings. This is calculated based on how well each country’s clubs do in the current season of European competitions. Along with the Champions League, Europa League and Europa Conference League matches are taken into account for the rankings.

Bayern and Leipzig crashing out of UCL would boost EPL’s chances

Italy currently leads the coefficient rankings and remains likely to grab one of the extra Champions League places. Germany previously leapfrogged England in the official rankings back in December. This was mostly due to Manchester United and Newcastle United both finishing bottom of their Champions League groups.

The Magpies exited Europe after landing in the last spot of a difficult group. The “Group of Death” also featured Paris Saint-Germain, AC Milan, and Borussia Dortmund. Manchester United, on the other hand, shockingly underperformed in Group A alongside Bayern Munich, Copenhagen, and Galatasaray.

Although England is currently behind Germany, statistics experts Opta claim that the Premier League has an 82% chance to jump back ahead of the Bundesliga. This comes down to recent results across UEFA’s competitions. Manchester City topped Copenhagen 3-1 in the first leg of their matchup on Feb. 13.

German teams, however, did not fare as well last week. Bayern and RB Leipzig both lost their first-leg fixtures in the Champions League. Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt also failed to win their recent Europa League and Conference League matches as well.

Current UEFA coefficient rankings (top two nations get extra UCL spot):

1. Serie A (Italy) – 14.714
2. Bundesliga (Germany) – 13.928
3. Premier League (England) – 13.875
4. LaLiga (Spain) – 12.937
5. Ligue 1 (France) – 12.250

Spurs, United may need help from rivals to qualify for the Champions League

Looking ahead, six total English clubs have also qualified for the round of 16 across UEFA’s competitions. Germany, on the other hand, has just five teams alive in these tournaments. Premier League clubs are also all favorites to win the three UEFA competitions.

Bookies pick Manchester City to retain its Champions League title after collecting the trophy last season. Liverpool (Europa League) and Aston Villa (Conference League) also lead the betting odds to win their European competitions as well.

Assuming the season ended today, Tottenham Hotspur would become the second-ever Premier League club to qualify for the Champions League after finishing fifth in the table. Liverpool previously earned a place in the tournament after being fifth in the 2004/05 standings. The Reds, however, grabbed a Champions League place because they won the main European tournament the previous season.

Spurs or Manchester United fans could potentially find themselves having to root for rivals such as Arsenal or Manchester City to do well in European play to help themselves qualify for next season’s Champions League.

PHOTOS: IMAGO