How Al-Hilal’s result vs NEOM could impact Cristiano Ronaldo’s Al-Nassr title chances in the 2025–26 Saudi Pro League

Cristiano Ronaldo and Al-Nassr are now just one step away from lifting the 2025-26 Saudi Pro League title, but the championship race still carries a final twist before the season reaches its conclusion. With Karim Benzema‘s Al-Hilal hosting NEOM at the Kingdom Arena, the outcome of that match could dramatically shape what happens on the final weekend of the campaign.

The title race looked almost over after Al-Nassr’s dramatic Riyadh derby against Al-Hilal earlier in the week. However, a late equalizer kept the defending challenger alive in the race and ensured the championship battle would continue into Matchday 33.

Al-Nassr currently sits at the top of the table with 83 points from 33 matches, while Al-Hilal remains second with 78 points from 32 games. Simone Inzaghi’s side still has two matches left to play, beginning with Saturday’s home encounter against NEOM before a final-day trip to Al-Fayha. Meanwhile, Al-Nassr has only one remaining league fixture, a home meeting with Damac on Matchday 34.

The Blue Waves’ campaign has been extraordinary despite trailing in the title race. The club remains unbeaten in the Saudi Pro League, recording 23 wins and nine draws through 32 matches while scoring 82 goals and conceding just 27. The dramatic 1-1 draw against Ronaldo’s side extended the club’s unbeaten league streak and kept faint hopes alive.

Had Al-Nassr held on for victory in that derby, the title would already have been mathematically secured. Instead, Al-Hilal now enters Matchday 33 knowing that only a victory against NEOM can keep pressure on the leader.

What happens if Al-Hilal wins?

A victory is the only result that keeps the championship race alive. If Al-Hilal defeats NEOM, it would climb to 81 points, cutting Al-Nassr’s lead to just two points ahead of the final weekend. That would send the title race into Matchday 34 and place huge pressure on Ronaldo’s side before facing Damac.

In that scenario, Al-Hilal would still need help. The club would have to beat Al-Fayha in its final game while also hoping Al-Nassr fails to win against Damac. The pressure would become enormous because one slip from its city rival could completely change the destination of the trophy at the last possible moment.

What happens if the match ends in a draw?

A draw would be enough to hand the title to Al-Nassr. Should Al-Hilal collect only one point, it would move to 79 points with one game remaining. Even a victory against Al-Fayha on the final day would only take the team to 82 points, still below Al-Nassr’s current tally of 83 points.

That means a draw at Kingdom Arena would mathematically eliminate Al-Hilal from the title race. Ronaldo and Al-Nassr would then celebrate the championship before kicking a ball against Damac.

For Al-Hilal, such a result would be especially painful considering the club’s unbeaten season. Going through an entire league campaign without defeat and still failing to win the title would be a cruel ending.

What happens if Al-Hilal loses?

This is the simplest scenario in the title race. If Al-Hilal loses at home to NEOM, the club would remain on 78 points with only one match left to play. That would leave Simone Inzaghi and his players unable to catch Al-Nassr’s current total of 83 points.

In that case, Al-Nassr would officially be crowned Saudi Pro League champions before even facing Damac on the final matchday. Ronaldo’s side would secure the trophy without needing another result. Such an outcome would complete a remarkable campaign for Al-Nassr, which has spent much of the season battling constant pressure from its Riyadh rival.