Top 5 Clubs Most Likely to Win UEFA Champions League, According to Latest Odds

Instead of having a fascinating super league, we have yet another group where a surprise would be a true shock. About the only interesting stat from this group is Chelsea’s improvement. Their excellent start to the season and this fortunate draw boosted their odds of winning the Champions League from 2.6% to 4.6%. Not a massive increase but still significant. I suspect their poor end to last season is still dragging on their ELO rating and their odds are actually higher than this.

Group H

TeamELO RatingPointsDiffGroup OddsWin Odds
Porto17887779.16% 
Shakhtar17325768.74% 
Bilbao17621-250.34% 
BATE14643-121.76%

The last group is also the worst group in the Champions League, at least on paper. Three teams have a good chance to advance. The most interesting stat from this group is Bilbao and their collapse this season. On 5/3/2014 their ELO rating was 1828. Their ELO rating is currently 1762. With only one point from three matches in the Champions League and a downward trajectory, their 50% chance of advancement is likely too high. This is a good example of how ELO takes time to adjust to a team’s ability, since it is a lagging indicator.

BATE is the worst team left in the tournament, yet they have three points in the group. Originally given almost zero chance of advancing from the group, they now have a 1.7% chance and a reason to keep on fighting. Personally, I’d love to see them beat Shakhtar in their next match.

Overall

When comparing the current results with the results prior to the start of the league, only a few large changes in odds are present.

The biggest positive changes, as measured by the odds of winning a round of 16 match, are:

TeamImprovement
Chelsea13%
Leverkusen10%
Porto8%
Zenit8%
PSG7%

The biggest negative changes are:

Benfica-18%
Manchester City-15%
Bilbao-5%
CSKA Mosova-4%
Liverpool-4%
Dortmund-4%
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