Top 5 Clubs Most Likely to Win UEFA Champions League, According to Latest Odds

Group D

TeamELO RatingPointsDiffGroup OddsWin Odds
Dortmund18489993.30%0.52%
Arsenal18356291.86%0.36%
Galatasaray15971-48.57% 
Anderlecht15691-76.27%

What a boring group! It was a lopsided and easy group draw for Dortmund and Arsenal and predictable results have followed. The surprise from this simulation is that the odds of advancement from the group are less than 99% for Dortmund and Arsenal. Both teams still have two home matches remaining. What is going on here? Dortmund started the season with an ELO of 1905 and now is at 1848. Arsenal started the season with an ELO of 1843 and now is at 1835. However, Galatasaray and Anderlecht have also both declined in skill this season. These results are a bit of a mystery. We should expect easy qualification for the top two teams.

Group E

TeamELO RatingPointsDiffGroup OddsWin Odds
Bayern20819897.74%30.76%
Manchester City19272-170.61%2.18%
Roma17824-225.41% 
CSKA Moskva17091-56.24%

Group D is awful but Group E is the best group in the tournament. At least, it is the best group in terms of ratings on paper. In terms of performances it has been Bayern and then everybody else. Despite the pessimism many Manchester City fans must be feeling, the simulations still predict a strong likelihood they will advance to the elimination rounds. However, their performance has been quite poor, starting with the draw!

The draw trimmed Manchester City’s odds of advancing from the group stage from 93% to 89%. Not a large amount but still by far the largest change amongst the elite teams. Roma (-21%) and CSKA (-24%) were by far the biggest losers in the group draw in the entire tournament. Manchester City then accumulated a mere two points from three matches. However, they are only two points behind Roma for second place, with a better goal advantage. With their better ELO rating, two home games to Roma’s one, and the better goal advantage, Manchester City should still advance. Humorously, the simulation still sees a 2.2% chance that Bayern will not advance.

Group F

Pages 1 2 3 4 5

Leave a Reply

Translate »