# Odds On Brazil, Germany, Argentina or Holland Winning the World Cup

Which team has the best odds to win the 2014 World Cup, and which teams will win in the semi-finals? Find out below.

First, an update regarding how the odds are determined.

Using Elo ratings (ER), an elegant metric for calculating current strength based on weighted recent relative performance, each match’s expected outcome was plugged into a Poisson random number generator. Using weights derived from historical regression analysis and the knowledge that soccer goals per game follow a Poisson distribution, the generator churns out game outcomes. Structuring the matches into the World Cup’s schedule and storing the results for a half million simulations gives us the analysis below.

Odds for World Cup semi-finals:

Brazil wins 80.09 %
Germany wins 19.91 %

Argentina wins 61.60 %
Netherlands wins 38.40 %

Odds to win the 2014 FIFA World Cup:

Brazil – 62%
Argentina – 20%
Germany – 9%
Netherlands – 9%

Odds are according to Chris McFarland of Share Draft.

## 17 thoughts on “Odds On Brazil, Germany, Argentina or Holland Winning the World Cup”

1. Joe says:

I simulated EA Fifa world cup 2014 10 times
and the clear winners were Germany 😛 However Blatter wants Argentina to win the World cup

1. Austin says:

Blatter, a guy from Switzerland, wants Argentina to win, YEAH buddy, that makes a lot of sense, keep playing FIFA 2014, maybe EA Sports wants you to win.

2. Roland says:

hahaha, Brazil/Germany 80 to 20 ?? what is exactly your so called, historical regression analysis ?? Unless you have weighted the historical Billan between two teams high enough (which is irrelevant for 2014) , never you could never get a 80%-20% result.

what a waste of time!

3. It is very difficult to call which two teams will make it in to maracana all of them have 50% chance it could be brazil vs argentina or germany vs holland or brazil vs holland or germany vs argentina.

4. Shivakumar says:

I predict that Germany will defeat Brazil on the first semi final on Tomorrow, 8th of July. On the second semi final on 09th of July, Argentina will beat Netherlands. In the play-off for the third place, Netherlands will beat Brazil.

Check my web site for simple analysis.

1. Bergkamp_10 says:

Thanks, but no thanks. You can’t predict future my friend and that is where all your analysis falls flat. Good luck.

2. Patrick says:

3. emmanuel says:

i love your prediction. Who wins the world cup? And with what scores?
You can add me up on facebook on ABUAH CHINEDU EMMANUEL. Waiting to hear from you
thanks….

5. Patrick says:

I’m not exactly sure what calculations you used to determine an 80/20 split in favor of Brazil winning against Germany, but there’s no way that’s possible. Not if you took the most recent ELO rankings, which has Germany in 2nd and Brazil in 1st, with only a single point between them. And according to ELO calculations, that point difference came down to goal differential between the two teams.

Furthermore, your use of a historical regression, actually counts Germany’s record against Brazil TWICE. As the ELO rankings take previous records into account. So, basically, what you’ve done, is count the Brazil vs. Germany record TWICE, giving it greater weight than anything else in your calculation. But, that alone isn’t enough to throw off the calculations to the point where Brazil gets an 80% chance of winning over Germany. So, I have to assume that you also finagled the numbers a bit to give you an outcome that you much prefer. Especially since most Gambling establishments and bookhouses, now rank Germany as the #1 favorite to win the World Cup, based on recent performances of the team, in comparison to the other three remaining teams.

Ultimately, both teams have an equal chance of winning this match, because BOTH teams are skilled, and have talented players. It will come down to: which team is fitter/healthier/has better endurance, and which team is slightly more lucky and able to get a goal into the net.

To anyone that reads this article, I would not put any stock in it whatsoever. It’s a bunch of garbage.

6. Suhel Shafaat says:

Brasil will win the cup

1. Patrick says:

Hard to do from 3rd place.

7. deepak says:

Go Germans goooooo

Go and Thrash the ******

the world waits to see you takeing on the Argentines there in the land of giels with large boobs and but’s

8. Robert S says:

The winner of Netherlands vs. Argentina will win the World Cup. Brazil is without their star striker and lacks more backup talent to carry them through. Germany are good but are not good enough to take on the talent of Argentina or the Netherlands. Given location of tournament, will go with Argentina. But we will see.

1. Patrick says:

Please keep underestimating Germany. Germany wasn’t supposed to win this match with Brazil. Just because they were missing Silva and Neymar, is not enough of an excuse to down play Germany’s victory over a team that was lucky to advance as far as it did.

Germany is good enough. They’ve proven that time and again. And I’m proud of them. And while I expect the Final to be a difficult match for them, I feel that Germany plays better than Argentina and The Netherlands, because both of those teams rely too much on individual players to carry the team. Argentina puts the pressure on Messi, and Netherlands puts the pressure on Van Persie and Robben. Germany, on the other hand, have 23 TALENTED players that can fill in for each other when needed. They can work together to make the opportunities they need to score on goal. And God forbid you give the Germans space to work in.

Germany can win this cup. It’s the 60th Anniversary of their winning their first World Cup championship in 1954. It’s been 24 years since Germany’s last WC title. They are one of the best, if not the best, team in this world cup.

But, please, keep underestimating our team. All you do is galvanize our team.

9. Patrick says:

Hey, great prediction bro. Germany wins 7 – 1, and you give Brazil an 80% chance of winning….

I’d find a better way of calculating your odds for future matches.

10. emmanuel says: