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Author Archives: Chris McFarland

Odds On Who Will Win the World Cup Final and Third Place Game

Posted on by Chris McFarland
world-cup-final-ball

It just seemed like days ago when the World Cup kicked off on June 12, but time has flown by and the Third Place game as well as World Cup Final are almost here. Before we dive into the latest … Continue reading

Odds On Brazil, Germany, Argentina or Holland Winning the World Cup

Posted on by Chris McFarland
maracana-stadium

Which team has the best odds to win the 2014 World Cup, and which teams will win in the semi-finals? Find out below. First, an update regarding how the odds are determined. Using Elo ratings (ER), an elegant metric for … Continue reading

Top 8 Teams Most Likely to Win the World Cup Plus Odds for World Cup Quarter-Finals

Posted on by Chris McFarland
world-cup-trophy

All eight games in the Round of 16 have been completed, so we now know who the final 8 teams are in the World Cup who will be vying to win the 2014 tournament. Chris McFarland of Share Draft has … Continue reading

Updated Odds On Top 12 Teams Most Likely to Win the World Cup

Posted on by Chris McFarland
world-cup-trophy

Now that four of the Round of 16 World Cup match have concluded, we know which 12 teams are still in with a chance of lifting the trophy and which 4 teams are out. Chris McFarland of Share Draft has re-run … Continue reading

Updated Odds On Who Will Win The World Cup After Completion Of Group Matches

Posted on by Chris McFarland
world-cup-trophy

Now that the Group matches have concluded, Chris McFarland of Share Draft has re-run the data simulations to determine who are the teams most likely to win the World Cup. First, an update regarding how the odds are determined. Using … Continue reading

USA Has 47% Chance Of Beating Belgium; Updated Odds For Each World Cup Round of 16 Game

Posted on by Chris McFarland
jurgen-klinsmann

Now that the Group stages of the World Cup have concluded, it’s time to review the upcoming Round of 16 games to see which teams have the best odds of advancing through to the quarter-finals of World Cup 2014. Before … Continue reading

Top 10 Teams Most Likely to Win the 2014 FIFA World Cup: Updated Odds

Posted on by Chris McFarland
world-cup-trophy

Here are the odds for the top 10 teams most likely to win the 2014 FIFA World Cup. Note that the numbers were calculated before today’s World Cup games. 1. Brazil — 55% 2. Argentina — 17% La Albiceleste keep … Continue reading

USA Increase Odds to 86% of Advancing In World Cup After Draw Against Portugal

Posted on by Chris McFarland
usa

Everything is up for grabs in Group G. In the latest odds, the USA retains a surprisingly large 86% chance of advancing, according to Chris McFarland of Share Draft. The US Men’s National Team have a three point lead over Ghana … Continue reading

England’s Odds Of Qualifying For Next Round Drop From 33% to 3%

Posted on by Chris McFarland
england-odds-advancing

Although not yet finished, England are in a difficult spot. After England’s 2-1 defeat against Uruguay, England’s odds of advancing to the next round have dropped from 33% to 3%. It’s still possible they can squeeze into second place (see … Continue reading

Top 10 Nations Most Likely To Win The World Cup After End Of Round One Games

Posted on by Chris McFarland
world-cup

Now that the first round of games in the 2014 FIFA World Cup have concluded, here are the top 10 teams most-likely to win the World Cup. Note that the top 10 list doesn’t factor in the first match of … Continue reading

USA Increase Odds Of Qualifying For Next Round From 41% to 69%

Posted on by Chris McFarland
john-brooks

After the USA’s 2-1 win against Ghana, the US increased their odds of advancing to Round of 16 of the World Cup from 41% to 69%. With the win, the USMNT also doubled their chances of winning the World Cup … Continue reading

5 Biggest Changes to World Cup Odds Based On Day 3 Results

Posted on by Chris McFarland
world-cup-soccer-bracket

Here are the 5 biggest changes to the World Cup odds based on Saturday’s Day 3 games between Italy-England, Colombia-Greece, Uruguay versus Costa Rica and Ivory Coast-Japan, thanks to Chris McFarland at ShareDraft.com. 1. Big win for Colombia. Already the favorite … Continue reading

World Cup 2014 Simulation: Who Will Advance Through the Knockout Stages to Win the World Cup

Posted on by Chris McFarland
world-cup-2014-stadiums

Who will advance through the knockout stages of the World Cup, and go all the win to be crowned 2014 FIFA World Cup champions? The previous article analyzed the group stages of the 2014 World Cup. Using a computer simulation … Continue reading

World Cup 2014 Simulation: Our Calculations Of Who Will Advance Past the Group Stage

Posted on by Chris McFarland
Fifa-World-cup-2014-brazil

Sport simulations are wonderful. By compressing half a million individual World Cups into a few hours of computer time, we can see true percentages of expected success. Instead of reading anecdotal analysis on each group and team, we can look … Continue reading