Everything is up for grabs in Group G. In the latest odds, the USA retains a surprisingly large 86% chance of advancing, according to Chris McFarland of Share Draft. The US Men’s National Team have a three point lead over Ghana and Portugal and a +1 goal difference compared to -1 for Ghana and -4 for Portugal.
Although playing Germany, the simulations do not expect Ghana to defeat Portugal. This leaves the USA with an 86% chance of progressing to the Round of 16.
Germany leads the way with 99.91% chance of advancing. They finish first in the group 81% of the time according to the simulations.
The simulations show Germany beating the US 55% of the time, drawing 26%, and the US winning 19%.
The most likely way for the US to miss progressing to the next round is by a large defeat to Germany and a one goal win against Portugal by Ghana.
The simulations do not reflect the full extent of the poor Portuguese play and numerous injuries. Ghana’s current 8.47% chance of advancing and Portugal’s 5.6% chance are likely higher for Ghana and lower for Portugal in reality.
What-if time. No question about the what-if this evening. Ronaldo’s cross is sliced into the stands and the USA clinches a spot in the R16. How much would this have increased the USA’s chances of winning the World Cup? Not much. Winning the match gave them a 0.85% chance of winning the World Cup and drawing the match decreased that to 0.72%. The problem is that, even if the US had won, Germany still won the group 55% of the time. That meant the USA was still more likely to run into Belgium in the Round of 16 with Argentina the likely opponent after that.
In terms of the overall goal of winning the World Cup, today’s result meant very little. In terms of raising the anxiety level of USA fans, it was of huge importance.
Here are the latest odds for the other teams based on the results from the last few days:
1. Italy have the slight edge over Uruguay because of goal difference. However, the 52/48 odds are the closes to a coin flip we’ve had all tournament.
2. France is through with a 99.99% chance of advancement.
3. Switzerland has a decided edge over Ecuador at 61/39%. Adjust these accordingly if you feel France will be playing at less than full throttle.
4. Despite have the better goal differential and a three point advantage, the simulations still give Iran a fighting chance at 18%. Nigeria should go though, however, at 82%.
5. Belgium has clinched so the other three teams scramble for the last spot. They win first place in the group 97% of the time.
6. Russia, despite only having a point and an unfavorable goal difference, is still favored to advance 53% of the time. Algeria is at 45.5%. South Korea has a 1.8% chance. This was a bit of a surprise result!