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Updated Odds On Who Will Win The World Cup After Completion Of Group Matches

Now that the Group matches have concluded, Chris McFarland of Share Draft has re-run the data simulations to determine who are the teams most likely to win the World Cup.

First, an update regarding how the odds are determined.

Using Elo ratings (ER), an elegant metric for calculating current strength based on weighted recent relative performance, each match’s expected outcome was plugged into a Poisson random number generator. Using weights derived from historical regression analysis and the knowledge that soccer goals per game follow a Poisson distribution, the generator churns out game outcomes. Structuring the matches into the World Cup’s schedule and storing the results for a half million simulations gives us the analysis below.

Here are the teams with the best odds to win the 2014 FIFA World Cup:

1. Brazil 53.90%
2. Argentina 18.10%
3. Germany 8.70%
4. Netherlands 8.60%
5. Colombia 2.90%
6. France 2.31%
7. Mexico 1.40%
8. Chile 1.15%
9. Uruguay 0.88%
10. Belgium 0.68%
11. USA 0.48%
12. Switzerland 0.28%
13. Greece 0.26%
14. Costa Rica 0.20%
15. Nigeria 0.10%
16. Algeria 0.06%

Odds are according to Chris McFarland of Share Draft.

Read Chris’s original simulations of who will advance through the knockout stages to win the World Cup.

SEE MORE — Everything you need to know about the World Cup.

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9 Comments

9 Comments

  1. Michiel

    July 6, 2014 at 1:11 pm

    Wake up the Netherlands have dominated and are highest on goals in the championship. Brazil lost keyplayers, Argentina too. Too much pressure. Germany will take Brazil out prob. We beat our way through hard games often haveing a goal against, now we won the crazy anti footbal game that costa rica gave us. We beat Spain 5-1. Argentina? We should win that. Final: NETHERLANDS – GERMANY. Get ready for the Oranje Lions cause we are coming for our revenge. Germany too! Robben, Huntelaar, Persie, Snijder, Kuyt in top shape. If we don’t win this World Cup we have tried our hardest.

  2. Alx

    June 28, 2014 at 10:43 pm

    If anything, it’s Brazil that’s WAAAY overrated. They’ve been playing like total crap. Just because they’re hosting doesn’t mean anything. This world cup could go ANYWHERE.

  3. NeilO

    June 27, 2014 at 3:12 pm

    make sense, but still, wow. might as well hand it to south america.

  4. dust

    June 27, 2014 at 1:05 pm

    For me Belgium have been in second gear, sometimes reverse and they still got maximum points. While I want the USA to win, the quality of player the Belgian’s have is quite ridiculous in comparison.

    I’m not sure Wilmots can get the best out of them, he seems quite undecided on the best setup and who should start. They have several players in each third that can turn a game on its head.

    The World Cup fever has hit heady nights with ESPN pundits including MacManaman claiming the USA shouldn’t be worried about the Belgians…LOL…good to see they’re tempering the group stage advancement with some humility and perspective.

    The 1-0 loss to Germany in harsh conditions after a rough game in the amazon flatters to deceive. The Germans didn’t play their strongest 11 (10 men really if you include Ozil’s performance) and didn’t get out of 2nd either. Im glad USA went through but just see Belgium turning it on when they need to.

  5. Ivan

    June 27, 2014 at 11:22 am

    Brazil’s path to the final is very difficult:

    v. Chile
    v. Colombia (most likely)
    v. Germany/France

    They are bound to choke, maybe as early as tomorrow.

    Argentina’s side of the bracket is much easier, I think:

    v. Switzerland
    v. USA/Belgium
    v. Netherlands (unless Mexico sinks them on Sunday)

    It is all gearing up toward a Brazil-Argentina final, but that’s only on paper.

    It’s a different story once the teams take the field.

    • yespage

      June 27, 2014 at 11:28 am

      I think the Swiss will be a hard game for them. But I agree, Brazil have a really hard road. If/when(?) Brazil win, they will have certainly earned it. But to be better than 2 to 1 odds is ridiculous with the competition they are facing.

      Which shows why it is ridiculous to design an ‘analysis’ in the manner they have.

    • RJ

      June 27, 2014 at 11:53 am

      Argentina is sooooo overrated.

  6. Flyvanescence

    June 27, 2014 at 10:56 am

    Crap. Brazil over 50%??? Germany third, under 10? Belgium 10th and Mexico 7th?

    I want whatever this guys smoking; it must be pretty good.

    • yespage

      June 27, 2014 at 11:28 am

      The French have been on form, as have the Dutch. I’d have them above Germany and certainly at much higher odds.

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