The last time I saw Arsenal go two-nil down in the FA Cup was during the 2014 FA Cup Final against Hull.  I hadn’t been able to get a ticket to Wembley and had joined 20,000 fans at a watch party at the Emirates.  It was in the 8th minute when the second Hull goal went in.  I put my head in my hands and said to myself, believing it, “we can come back from this, not from three-nil, but we can come back from two-nil.”

Indeed we did. And there was much rejoicing both that year and the next, as Arsenal surged to become the winningest team in that competition’s history, and Arsene Wenger became the most decorated manager in that competition’s modern era.

The decade of trophy-less discontent had, perhaps, been the darkness before a new dawn. Mesut Ozil and then Alexis Sanchez indicated a new quality and type of signing.  Was the Boss on his way to new successes?  Two FA Cups in a row went quite a ways to quelling the anger of the sort of “fans” who yell at a manager on a train platform.

And then the Watford defeat happened last weekend, and per usual, the ever-angsty Arsenal fanbase lost its collective mind.  World Soccer Talk Senior Writer (and Manchester City supporter) Kartik Krishnayer always says that when a City defeat is particularly painful, he ignores commentary on it for days.  That’s how I felt after we went out to Watford. But after days to process it, all I realize is that we’re still in the same place we have been these last ten years under the greatest manager Arsenal has ever had: Stuck in a rut with no easy way out.

Ownership

In Boston a few days ago, Arsenal’s largest shareholder Stan Kroenke said, “If you want to win championships then you would never get involved (in sports ownership).”  Instead, he went on to emphasize the importance of strong business foundations.

And right there you have the current state of Arsenal Football Club: an organization run by businessmen who occasionally make soccer decisions.

Contrast this with the leadership (and success) of Bayern Munich FC: a club run by soccer men who then occasionally make business decisions.

Anyone who doesn’t accept that soccer is an enormous business that needs to be run with fiscal restraint and common sense isn’t in touch with reality, as Kroenke rightfully says.

But anyone who thinks that soccer is just a business, and would say you would “never get involved” if you wanted to win championships is in the wrong business entirely.  For those who are not entirely convinced, Amy Lawrence has some excellent thoughts at the Guardian.

With Kroenke settled in for a long-term “buy and hold” strategy with his “asset,” Arsenal Football Club, and with even a cursory observation of his other sports franchises, which underachieve even more grossly than Arsenal, it can be concluded that there will be a perpetuation of his thinking at the board level and directly below.  Dissidents don’t last long at Arsenal, as David Dein found out some years ago.

Management

If Arsenal fans are honest with themselves, they should realize we already have a template for what happens when a manager with 20+ years of experience steps down at a big club.  And it isn’t pretty.

With Ferguson nominating his own successor, with board approval, and with hundreds of millions of pounds spent, Manchester United look poised to miss Champions League soccer for the second time in three years.  And why?  Because in this new moneyed world, great players are no guarantee of trophies (if they ever were).  You have to have the right manager to execute.

There is no doubt that for all his failings, Arsene Wenger is the greatest manager that Arsenal has ever had, though I’m happy to share a pint with you and discuss my love of Herbert Chapman as well, who, had he lived, would surely have led the Gunners and the game of soccer to greater glory and innovation, respectively.

But the Boss has never adapted to what Chelsea and then Manchester City brought to the table. We’ve seen in both Borussia Dortmund and Atletico Madrid title-winning teams who willed and fought to titles, despite not having the money of the clubs around them.  I don’t dispute the central thesis of Soccernomics.  I would just submit that occasionally teams prove it wrong.

And so despite a squad that is consistently strong, Arsenal have always been a player or two away, or  indeed an injury or three away from putting together a serious title challenge.  And with no pressure from the top of the organization, not least of which because Arsene has (rightly) earned the trust of this club, the Boss feels free to continue to be the economist who is obsessed with soccer, not the soccer man who is only obsessed with economics when there is a major stadium move. The Boss relies on what has always worked in the past – beautiful soccer, with only occasional serious tactical adaptation.  And in another era, he won the Premier League – multiple times – doing that.  He remains unconvinced to try (or perhaps is unable to find) another way in this era – an era in which everyone has a lot of money.

As much as any true Arsenal fan takes joy at watching the misery of Manchester United and all its fans, three years after Sir Alex, how can we say we will do differently when our time comes?  Will the Boss have a say in his replacement? Absolutely. Will the weight of the world be on that new man’s shoulders? Yes. Will Arsenal fans stupidly expect trophies to now start flowing because #WengerOut finally happened? You bet.

But we know that whoever takes over at Arsenal will not only have the expectation of fans who want to win all the trophies, all the time pulling at him, but he will also have the financial restraint of the board pulling at him from the other side. That restraint is in harmony with Arsene, which is why there is so much harmony between ownership and management at present.  It remains to be seen whether such harmony will be found with the new candidate when the time comes.

The Fans

In an era when managers are sacked after one bad season (because soccer is a business now), Arsenal’s support of Wenger has been admirable.  Even the infamous “thanks for the memories, but it’s time to say goodbye” banner that has occasionally been unfurled at the Emirates is respectful.

But, the fans take whatever Arsenal gives to them. Highest season ticket prices in the Premier League? Check. Robust kit sales? Check. A waiting list tens of thousands deep to become a season ticket holder? Check. (I haven’t checked my spot in the queue recently, but I’m sure there are at least 20,000 people in front of me).

Kroenke has made it clear he sees Arsenal as a business.  Arsenal fans continue to delude themselves that they are supporting a current iteration of a football club, rather than an ever-fading memory best remembered at what was then The Home of Football, but is now, fittingly for Arsenal, condominiums.

If only fans took Kroenke at his word – that this is a business – because then they could organize the sort of effective and successful actions that consumers take when they want businesses to change tack.

But Arsenal fans are content to bemoan the Boss, or Kroenke, or say things like “all we need is a forward, a DM, and a CB.” They don’t realize that they have the power to demand change.  It’s always easier to blame someone else though, innit?

Every season, Arsenal FC sends a gift or two by mail to its paying members at the start of each Premier League campaign. This season we got a little FA Cup pin on a cardboard backing that said, “1 Arsenal, 12 victories, No Equals.”  It’s the best we can hope for as it’s clear that we need a top to bottom rethink and attitude adjustment.

Stephen Heiner writes from Paris.  He supports PSG, Arsenal, and Sporting Kansas City, whether they win trophies or not.