USMNT Fans Must Be Realistic About United States’ World Cup Chances

We are less than one week away from the kickoff of the 2014 World Cup but the hype machine has been churning for the U.S. national team:

“We are due for a win over Ghana, we should have won the match four years ago.”

“Portugal is Ronaldo and a bunch of overrated players; if he has a bad game we can win.”

“Germany is good, but we beat Spain and we’ve beat Germany in our friendly. Anything is possible!”

For a country with very little World Cup success, U.S. fans have a ton of confidence going to Brazil.  We are the weakest team in the Group of Death, but because we have a semi-tough qualifying federation and have had glimpses of international success, we are confident that the team is not getting the respect it deserves and Jurgen Klinsmann’s men are going to “shock the world.” Many U.S. fans have an attitude of almost hubris, that the world can’t be right because we are an emerging soccer power and can “hang” with the best, especially if the breaks go our way.

The reality is that this is a false view of our place in the soccer world, and in many ways makes us more like the English media than we want to admit.

The reality is that if the United States is an emerging soccer power, it is at the infant stage. We finished last in the group stage in 2006, and we barely advanced from a weak group in 2010. In this year’s qualifying, the United States benefited from a weak Mexico.  The best player on the USMNT right now has been left at home, while the other major stars left Europe to play for MLS.  Maybe even more concerning for the future of the program is the fact that only one player from the U-23 squad that tried to qualify for the 2012 Olympics made this team, suggesting Klinsmann does not trust the previous youth set-up.

If we gave this team’s profile but omitted the name, we would assume it was maybe another CONCACAF nation that would be fodder for the better teams in group. We naturally assume this team is better because it says “United States” above the preview.  There is an advantage to the U.S. Soccer Federation for portraying this team as better than it is. A good USMNT with so many MLS players on it naturally means the league itself is top notch, a goal they have been trying to promote and convince the media for the past few years. Additionally, a national team that is an international contender does not mean the World Cup 2010 goal was a failure and that the country is on course to assuming its place among the world’s elite.  Failure in 2014 would be regarded the same way – an unfortunate fluke.

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