The PK Struggle

The conclusion of the group stage this afternoon pushes the tournament into the win or go home stage. No longer can games be capped at 90 minutes and a tie. Now they can go a full 120 minutes with out a single goal before it is extended into the delicious realm of penalties.

Dreaded by almost every player out there; it would be surprising if there was single professional who says he enjoys settling a game this way. The previous tie breaker was drawing of lots, so while PKs might not be ideal, they are far from the worst way.

The pressure of having to hit this massive net from only 12 yards out (something many of us could do in our sleep) often becomes too much and the results can be crushing. Entire nations rest their hopes on a single shot and the results can propel players into stardom or infamy regardless of the rest of their career; see Grosso, Fabio or Baggio, Roberto.

The English know this all too well, having been sent home 5 times in the last 20 years after losing on penalties, mercifully never in a final though. It is easy to understand why there might be a level of concern in the back of the collective mind of Three Lions supporters now that the tournament has reached this stage.

The point of this post is not to rub it in (I promise), but instead to shed some light on what years of PKs has taught us about how to succeed when it is your turned.

A NY Times article turned me on to a study of Penalty Kick success and failure from the Norweigian School of Sport almost a month ago. Never is it more relevant than these two weeks every four years.

In brief (and from a few other cited stories at the bottom):

Expectedly, success rates drop with each kick
- 86.6% -> 81.7% -> 79.3% -> 73% and so on….
- The author of the study calls this their major discovery because “It demonstrates so clearly the power of psychology.” Personally, I thought that was obvious but I guess they like to quantify these things.

There is a massive gap in success rates when the outcome depends on the kick
- If making the kick means instant victory, 90% of them are successful
- If missing the kick means instant defeat (aka a kick must be made to tie), only 60% are made

It is also possible to help your teammate and hurt the opposition when it is your turn
- Celebrating excessively after scoring both decreases the chances that the opponent going next will score and increases the chances that your own teammate will score in their next turn

Timing matters as well, from the moment the whistle is blown…
- Waiting under .2 seconds, players score 57.4% of the time
- Waiting .3-.4 seconds, players score 77.8% of the time
- Waiting .5-.7 seconds, players score 70% of the time
- Waiting over 1.1 seconds, players score 81.1% of the time

There are some other insights in the articles; mindset, visualization, pressure. It’s definitely a worthy read and will give you a little extra to think about when someone lines up this weekend with the weight of a nation on their shoulders.

NYTimes Article

WSJ Article

BioEd Online Article