Typically, the approach to predicting the Premier League's relegation candidates in pre-season goes like this: One, include the three newly promoted sides. Two, nclude three other teams that were just above the drop the previous season. And three, choose your least favorite mid-table team and assume they will have a bad year And that approach […]

For the 2014/15 Premier League season, based on the relative ELO rankings, the simulations indicated an easy top four finish for Manchester City, Chelsea, and Liverpool. There was a four way scramble for fourth, with Arsenal having the edge. Manchester City were clear favorite to win the league with Chelsea a reasonably strong second. With […]

It just seemed like days ago when the World Cup kicked off on June 12, but time has flown by and the Third Place game as well as World Cup Final are almost here. Before we dive into the latest odds for the World Cup Final and Third Place game, here's an update regarding how […]

Now that the Group matches have concluded, Chris McFarland of Share Draft has re-run the data simulations to determine who are the teams most likely to win the World Cup. First, an update regarding how the odds are determined. Using Elo ratings (ER), an elegant metric for calculating current strength based on weighted recent relative […]

Now that the Group stages of the World Cup have concluded, it's time to review the upcoming Round of 16 games to see which teams have the best odds of advancing through to the quarter-finals of World Cup 2014. Before we share the data, here's a note from the editor. Editor's note: Chris McFarland's analysis […]

Who will advance through the knockout stages of the World Cup, and go all the win to be crowned 2014 FIFA World Cup champions? The previous article analyzed the group stages of the 2014 World Cup. Using a computer simulation that generated estimated goal amounts based on each team's Elo Rating (ER) as of May […]