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Typically, the approach to predicting the Premier League's relegation candidates in pre-season goes like this: One, include the three newly promoted sides. Two, nclude three other teams that were just above the drop the previous season. And three, choose your least favorite mid-table team and assume they will have a bad year And that approach […]

For the 2014/15 Premier League season, based on the relative ELO rankings, the simulations indicated an easy top four finish for Manchester City, Chelsea, and Liverpool. There was a four way scramble for fourth, with Arsenal having the edge. Manchester City were clear favorite to win the league with Chelsea a reasonably strong second. With […]

The 2014/2015 UEFA Champions League is halfway through the group stage and it is time to review the tournament to date. Are there any major surprises? What team is most likely to win the entire tournament? To find out the answers, simodds.com has simulated the tournament a few hundred thousand times. The Champions League is an […]

It just seemed like days ago when the World Cup kicked off on June 12, but time has flown by and the Third Place game as well as World Cup Final are almost here. Before we dive into the latest odds for the World Cup Final and Third Place game, here's an update regarding how […]

Which team has the best odds to win the 2014 World Cup, and which teams will win in the semi-finals? Find out below. First, an update regarding how the odds are determined. Using Elo ratings (ER), an elegant metric for calculating current strength based on weighted recent relative performance, each match’s expected outcome was plugged […]

All eight games in the Round of 16 have been completed, so we now know who the final 8 teams are in the World Cup who will be vying to win the 2014 tournament. Chris McFarland of Share Draft has re-run the data simulations to determine who are the teams most likely to win the World […]

Now that four of the Round of 16 World Cup match have concluded, we know which 12 teams are still in with a chance of lifting the trophy and which 4 teams are out. Chris McFarland of Share Draft has re-run the data simulations to determine who are the teams most likely to win the World Cup. […]

Now that the Group matches have concluded, Chris McFarland of Share Draft has re-run the data simulations to determine who are the teams most likely to win the World Cup. First, an update regarding how the odds are determined. Using Elo ratings (ER), an elegant metric for calculating current strength based on weighted recent relative […]

Now that the Group stages of the World Cup have concluded, it's time to review the upcoming Round of 16 games to see which teams have the best odds of advancing through to the quarter-finals of World Cup 2014. Before we share the data, here's a note from the editor. Editor's note: Chris McFarland's analysis […]

Here are the odds for the top 10 teams most likely to win the 2014 FIFA World Cup. Note that the numbers were calculated before today's World Cup games. 1. Brazil — 55% 2. Argentina — 17% La Albiceleste keep benefiting more from the big names dropping out than Brazil, which may be because Brazil […]

Everything is up for grabs in Group G. In the latest odds, the USA retains a surprisingly large 86% chance of advancing, according to Chris McFarland of Share Draft. The US Men's National Team have a three point lead over Ghana and Portugal and a +1 goal difference compared to -1 for Ghana and -4 for […]

Although not yet finished, England are in a difficult spot. After England's 2-1 defeat against Uruguay, England's odds of advancing to the next round have dropped from 33% to 3%. It's still possible they can squeeze into second place (see above graphic). Meanwhile, here are the other odds of note after the World Cup matches […]

Now that the first round of games in the 2014 FIFA World Cup have concluded, here are the top 10 teams most-likely to win the World Cup. Note that the top 10 list doesn't factor in the first match of the second round of games that was played today between Brazil and Mexico. 1. Brazil […]

After the USA's 2-1 win against Ghana, the US increased their odds of advancing to Round of 16 of the World Cup from 41% to 69%. With the win, the USMNT also doubled their chances of winning the World Cup — all the way to 0.58%. The US is now ranked number nine most likely […]

Here are the 5 biggest changes to the World Cup odds based on Saturday's Day 3 games between Italy-England, Colombia-Greece, Uruguay versus Costa Rica and Ivory Coast-Japan, thanks to Chris McFarland at ShareDraft.com. 1. Big win for Colombia. Already the favorite in the group at 73% chance of advancing, the 3-0 win against Greece boosts them […]