Typically, the approach to predicting the Premier League’s relegation candidates in pre-season goes like this: One, include the three newly promoted sides. Two, nclude three other teams that were just above the drop the previous season. And three, choose your least favorite mid-table team and assume they will have a bad year

And that approach works more often than not. However, for this analysis we’ll compare the simodds.com results now that gameweek 11 of the Premier League has concluded.

First, here were the pre-season simulation favorites for relegation

The first thing to notice is that more than half the league had a non zero chance of relegation. Granted, Stoke, Swansea City, and Southampton were all predicted to be more likely to finish in top seven than be relegated but the chance was there.

What about the three promoted teams? QPR and Burnley are, as expected, two of the three most likely teams to be relegated. However, Leicester City is ahead of Sunderland and only ninth most likely to be relegated. They are an interesting case and will be examined in more detail later on.

What about the three teams closest to relegation last season? West Brom, Hull City, and Aston Villa are also close to the bottom, with Hull City clearly in the bottom three with a 56% chance of relegation.

Now that 29% of the Premier League season has been completed, how do things stand?

Sorry, the Tottenham line is just a bad joke to see if anyone is still paying attention!

Let’s go through each team one by one.

Burnley – Determining the strength of a promoted side is difficult for two reasons. First, promoted teams often have significant additions of personnel during the summer. Second, and more importantly, the ELO ratings need to be adjusted because teams in the Championship do not play teams in the Premier League. Well, they do in the cup competitions but clubelo.com does not use cup matches as part of the ELO calculations. Since we know the first place team in the Championship will, on average, be in the bottom third of the Premier League, adjustments to the ELO rating clearly need to be made. However, until the teams are actually participating in the Premier League, there is a bit of guess work involved. For Burnley, the pre-season rating of 1563 looks to have been too high, with too much emphasis on their superb season in the Championship last year. Their rating has declined to 1518 (with a bump this last week due to their first win of the season, over Hull). With only seven points, their odds of relegation are now almost three in four.

QPR – Promoted via the playoffs after a fourth place finish, QPR’s rating has declined from 1519 to 1504. Although their rating is lower than Burnley’s, QPR has one more point than Burnley. Also, their strength of remaining schedule (SoRS) is a bit easier. Their SoRS is actually lower than all of the other bottom teams except for Aston Villa. Nothing in their performance this season indicates that they should be considered anything other than a relegation favorite.

Hull City – When I first saw Hull City’s pre-season simulation prediction, I felt the need to double check the accuracy. My impression of Hull City last season was one of decent performance for a newly promoted side. Sure enough, their ELO rating increased from 1440 to 1551 at their peak last season, which is fantastic. However, their form since 4/5/2014 has been 4 wins, 9 losses, and seven draws. Although they have drawn Arsenal and Liverpool this season, they have lost many games against weak opposition. Their ELO ratings only declined this season from 1520 to 1515 but the drop since last season’s peak is significant and it puts them in the rating range of QPR and Burnley. Still they have eleven points with a good goal difference. Why should they be third favorite to be relegated? The answer is that they have the second most difficult remaining schedule in the league. Still, my guess remains that Hull City will end up squeaking to safety, based on nothing other than personal observation of their play.

Crystal Palace – They were certainly the team to root for the second half of last season, at least as a neutral. Their ELO rating went on a rocket ride last season, from 1430 to 1570. Pre-season they had a 27% chance of relegation, which seemed reasonable for a team in their second season in the premier league. Also, their incredible success last season contained a bit of good fortune so a regression to the mean was likely. Sure enough, they have dipped from 1575 to 1542 this season. Whether that is due to personnel, Tony Pulis’s resignation, or regression to the mean is up for debate. Crystal Palace is at real risk of relegation and is in the cluster of four teams with the distinctly highest risk.

Leicester City – Last season’s runaway win in the Championship bumped their rating from 1440 to 1590 at the start of the season. An excellent start to the Premier League season (8 from 15 against a very difficult schedule) raised the rating all the way to 1630! Since then they have gained only a single point and now their rating sits at 1565. With only nine points, they are in the relegation zone by goal difference. Currently the simulations expect Leicester to dig themselves out. However, I suspect the ratings are skewed a bit high because of lingering Championship adjustment effects. Leicester City’s odds of relegation will likely increase over the next several weeks.

Aston Villa – Similar to Leicester, Aston Villa had a good start to the season and then went into a dive. Their odds are at 22% only because they have accumulated eleven points with just five goals scored. Another couple of losses and their early season point advantage will be gone. At that point it will start to look like a multiple team race for relegation.

Sunderland – Although their odds of relegation are only 7%, Sunderland is worth some analysis. Last year, they finished the season with an amazing run to escape relegation. This year, they’ve accumulated twelve points with only two wins. Twelve points doesn’t sound impressive but they are only three points from ninth place Stoke City. Coupled with their surprisingly solid ELO rating, due to the large number of draws and last season’s end of year great run of form, Sunderland should easily be safe. Their ELO has also steadied this season, so far, and they do not show any of the signs of decline so many other relegation candidates have shown.

For the 2014/15 Premier League season, based on the relative ELO rankings, the simulations indicated an easy top four finish for Manchester City, Chelsea, and Liverpool. There was a four way scramble for fourth, with Arsenal having the edge. Manchester City were clear favorite to win the league with Chelsea a reasonably strong second.

With ten gameweeks played, how things have changed.

To find out the answers, simodds.com has simulated the tournament a few hundred thousand times. 

After Gameweek 10, the odds of Chelsea finishing first are 81%, while Manchester City’s odds of lifting the trophy are at 19%.

Given their strong start to the season, there’s no surprise that Chelsea is the favorite to win the Premier League as well as a sure bet to finish in the top four. It is however perhaps surprising how likely they are to win the league. There are two reasons for this. One, they have a full six point lead over their nearest rival (in terms of strength. Southampton are closer in points. More on them soon).  Two, Chelsea’s ELO rating was 1921 at the start of the season and is 1937 now. Manchester City’s rating was 1959 at the start of the season and is 1912 now.

Although after ten rounds the simulation predicts a two horse race for the top, the top four battle has expanded. Nine teams are now in the running. Chelsea and Manchester City are locks. I’ve had the sense that Arsenal has been a disappointment to many supporters this season. Their ELO rating has declined from 1849 to 1826, which might confirm that feeling. However, the pre-season simulation predicted almost no chance of Arsenal winning the league, so any expectations of a top finish were likely unrealistic. Despite only a small of winning the league, Arsenal’s odds of finishing top four have climbed from 53% to 83%. Combine this with Arsenal’s near certain advancement from the UEFA Champions League group stages and the season has to be seen as a relative success so far.

If Arsenal has improved their odds even with a declining ELO rating, that means other teams have performed poorly. Apologies in advance to fans of Liverpool, Manchester United, and Tottenham.

Liverpool started the season with a 13% chance of winning the league and an 89% chance of a top four finish. They now have a 0% chance of winning the league and a 46% chance of top four. What has happened? We all know that Suarez left, Sturridge has been injured, and practically one half of a new team arrived in the summer. Liverpool’s ratings have dropped from 1899 to 1810. They have had the poorest performance, relative to the rating at the end of last season, of any team in English football. These ratings can’t tell you whether the cause is Suarez, Sturridge, Ballotelli, Lovren, Lallana, or Rodgers. It can tell you that Liverpool is showing every indication of declining to a new, and much lower, performance level. It will be very interesting to see what happens when Sturridge gets back.

Manchester United decided, before the season began, that the 1% likelihood of winning the Premier League (as calculated by Simodds) was too low. So they transferred, or received on loan, superb attacking talent. Unfortunately, they also seem to have forgotten the center of defense and have had a horrific run of injuries. The outcome? A decline in the odds of a top four finish from 35% to 27%. More worryingly, their odds of finishing top seven have declined from 98% to 85%. One suspects that, assuming their injury situation resolves, Manchester United will be better than this the remainder of the season. Their ELO rating has declined from 1843 to 1789.

Before Tottenham sold Gareth Bale, their ELO rating was 1825. Now their rating is 1725. At the start of this season, they were at 1772. Now at 1725. Odds of finishing top four have declined from 10% to 5%. They have been saved from near 0% odds only because so many of their nearest competitors have also been poor. There is no reason, at this time, to expect a significant turnaround and Tottenham looks to be fighting for a Europa League place.

Everton has underperformed expectations as well (1811 to 1776). However, they were always seen as unlikely top four candidates so the effect on their odds has not been as noticeable.

Besides Chelsea, all the pre-season top seven have declined in ELO ratings. No wonder there have been articles on the decline of the Premier League!

So how about some good news? Southampton and West Ham have both exceeded expectations and have climbed into the top four conversation.

Southampton’s transfer window was insane. Many players from last season’s successful side (8th, 56 pts) left, seemingly all at once. I enjoyed watching the side last season and feared the worst. Instead, they have continued their remarkable improvement, with their ELO rating climbing from 1684 to 1721. Also, they happen to be in second place with 22 points. Their odds of finishing top four have climbed from ~0% to 17.1% and of finishing top seven from 11% to 75%. Reason for optimism? A very successful year so far against many pre-season prognostications. Reason for pessimism? They have lost against the only teams they have faced from last season’s top seven. Coming up, Leicester and Aston Villa, followed by Manchester City, Arsenal, Manchester United with Everton and Chelsea soon to follow. If Southampton can come out of fixtures against last season’s top seven with a couple of wins their odds will jump.

West Ham have improved from 1617 to 1648. They sit in fifth place, tied with Arsenal. However, their ratings are still too low to make any major mark upon the top four. Early indications are that, despite a great run, this is more likely luck than a permanently higher plateau. This is most evident when looking at the odds of a top seven finish. West Ham’s odds are 11.64%, compared to Tottenham’s at 48.84% or Everton’s at 80%. Liverpool, Tottenham, Manchester United, and Everton are all predicted to finish higher up the table than West Ham despite being below them currently. The same applies to Swansea City, incidentally.

The 2014/2015 UEFA Champions League is halfway through the group stage and it is time to review the tournament to date. Are there any major surprises? What team is most likely to win the entire tournament? To find out the answers, simodds.com has simulated the tournament a few hundred thousand times.

The Champions League is an interesting, and complex, tournament. It starts with four qualification rounds of double matches, followed by a round robin group stage of six matches, and ends with a single elimination tournament composed of double matches. It is immediately clear that the Champions League will attenuate the poor teams more effectively than the World Cup, for example. Six group matches will cause fewer major surprises. Double matches instead of single matches during elimination is a further headwind for weaker teams.

The seeding for the tournament also favors the strongest teams, which is perhaps why UEFA has decided to change the seeding methodology for next season. The simulations use the ELO ratings found on http://clubelo.com. A description of the simulations can be found at http://simodds.com/Home/About. These simulations were run with ELO ratings for all clubs before the results of matches on 11/1/2014 were known.

So, enough introduction. What are the results?

The entire tournament, including the irritating qualification rounds, were simulated before the tournament began. At that time the top five teams most likely to win the tournament were:

Bayern Munich – 30.4%
Real Madrid – 28.6%
Barcelona – 17.8%
Atletico Madrid – 5.8%
Manchester City – 5.0%

Although rated, at the time, as slightly weaker than Real Madrid, Bayern won a greater percentage in part because the final is in Germany, thus providing a slight home field advantage to Bayern. Perhaps most interesting is the clear top three in this early simulation.

Taking into consideration the most recent results and ratings, the 5 teams with the best chance of winning the UEFA Champions League are:

1. Real Madrid 34%

2. Bayern Munich 31%

3. Barcelona 19%

4. Atletico Madrid 6%

5. Chelsea 5%

Now let’s look at the current results.

Group A

Both Atlético and Juventus had fortuitous group draws. However, Olympiakos achieved six points from their first three matches and this boosted their chances of advancing from the group stages from 13% to 22%. This is all at the expense of Juventus. If there is an unlikely win by Olympiakos over Juventus in Turin on Wednesday, these percentages reverse.

Group B

With the second easiest draw in the tournament, Liverpool would have expected an easy road to the round of 16. The draw by itself provided Liverpool with an increase in group success from 71% to 91%. In reality, Liverpool needed a 93rd minute penalty to avoid a draw at home against Ludogorets.

With three points in three matches, Liverpool still has an 82% chance of advancing. This should make Liverpool’s coming defeat at Real Madrid a little easier to take, since they would be expected to defeat both Basel and Ludogorets in the final two matches. Still, having to win the final two matches to advance is heavy pressure. The simulations don’t whither but sometimes real life teams do.  There will be an interesting few weeks ahead for Liverpool fans. Incidentally, there is not much to say about Real Madrid, except that they have improved their odds of winning the entire tournament from 28.6% to 34.2%.

Congratulations to Ludogorets. Starting in the second qualifying round, they had only an 11% chance of even reaching the group stages. They are one of four teams from the second qualifying round. Perhaps one of them will sneak through to the elimination rounds.

Group C

The most evenly matched group in the tournament also has some surprising predictions from the simulations. Despite only a single point from three matches, Benfica is still second favorite to advance from the group. Their poor performance to date has dropped their odds of advancing from 82% to 55%. Why does the simulation expect them to still advance? Three reasons. They are only four points behind second place with three matches left. They are still rated as the best team in the group. They still have two matches at home remaining. Leverkusen, as expected due to their six points, has seen the largest increase in their odds of advancing from this group. It is interesting that no team from this group, despite all having decent chances of progressing, have a significant chance of winning the tournament.

Group D

What a boring group! It was a lopsided and easy group draw for Dortmund and Arsenal and predictable results have followed. The surprise from this simulation is that the odds of advancement from the group are less than 99% for Dortmund and Arsenal. Both teams still have two home matches remaining. What is going on here? Dortmund started the season with an ELO of 1905 and now is at 1848. Arsenal started the season with an ELO of 1843 and now is at 1835. However, Galatasaray and Anderlecht have also both declined in skill this season. These results are a bit of a mystery. We should expect easy qualification for the top two teams.

Group E

Group D is awful but Group E is the best group in the tournament. At least, it is the best group in terms of ratings on paper. In terms of performances it has been Bayern and then everybody else. Despite the pessimism many Manchester City fans must be feeling, the simulations still predict a strong likelihood they will advance to the elimination rounds. However, their performance has been quite poor, starting with the draw!

The draw trimmed Manchester City’s odds of advancing from the group stage from 93% to 89%. Not a large amount but still by far the largest change amongst the elite teams. Roma (-21%) and CSKA (-24%) were by far the biggest losers in the group draw in the entire tournament. Manchester City then accumulated a mere two points from three matches. However, they are only two points behind Roma for second place, with a better goal advantage. With their better ELO rating, two home games to Roma’s one, and the better goal advantage, Manchester City should still advance. Humorously, the simulation still sees a 2.2% chance that Bayern will not advance.

Group F

Another group with two clear favorites. This is also the group with the largest difference in quality between best and worst teams. After three matches Barcelona is in second place but their chances of advancing from the group are higher than Bayern Munich’s. For the group to become interesting, Ajax needs to win the match against Barcelona in Amsterdam on 11/5.

Group G

I sometimes wish the Champions League took the top thirty two teams from the clubelo.com rankings instead of using the “Champions” of various leagues around Europe. Maribor, despite my admiration for their achievement in advancing from the second qualifying round (they only had a 5% chance of even reaching the group stage), is ranked around 150th in the world. They are lower than Norwich City and just above Burnley.

Instead of having a fascinating super league, we have yet another group where a surprise would be a true shock. About the only interesting stat from this group is Chelsea’s improvement. Their excellent start to the season and this fortunate draw boosted their odds of winning the Champions League from 2.6% to 4.6%. Not a massive increase but still significant. I suspect their poor end to last season is still dragging on their ELO rating and their odds are actually higher than this.

Group H

The last group is also the worst group in the Champions League, at least on paper. Three teams have a good chance to advance. The most interesting stat from this group is Bilbao and their collapse this season. On 5/3/2014 their ELO rating was 1828. Their ELO rating is currently 1762. With only one point from three matches in the Champions League and a downward trajectory, their 50% chance of advancement is likely too high. This is a good example of how ELO takes time to adjust to a team’s ability, since it is a lagging indicator.

BATE is the worst team left in the tournament, yet they have three points in the group. Originally given almost zero chance of advancing from the group, they now have a 1.7% chance and a reason to keep on fighting. Personally, I’d love to see them beat Shakhtar in their next match.

Overall

When comparing the current results with the results prior to the start of the league, only a few large changes in odds are present.

The biggest positive changes, as measured by the odds of winning a round of 16 match, are:

The biggest negative changes are:

It just seemed like days ago when the World Cup kicked off on June 12, but time has flown by and the Third Place game as well as World Cup Final are almost here.

Before we dive into the latest odds for the World Cup Final and Third Place game, here’s an update regarding how the odds are determined.

Using Elo ratings (ER), an elegant metric for calculating current strength based on weighted recent relative performance, each match’s expected outcome was plugged into a Poisson random number generator. Using weights derived from historical regression analysis and the knowledge that soccer goals per game follow a Poisson distribution, the generator churns out game outcomes. Structuring the matches into the World Cup’s schedule and storing the results for a half million simulations gives us the analysis below.

And now, the odds.

Odds on winning the 2014 FIFA World Cup Final 

Germany – 50.07%
Argentina – 49.93%

It’s essentially a coin flip regarding who will win.

Odds on winning the 2014 FIFA World Cup Third Place game

Brazil – 73%
Netherlands – 27%

Odds are according to Chris McFarland of Share Draft.

The World Cup Final kicks off on Sunday at 3pm ET, while the Third Place match starts at 4pm ET on Saturday.

SEE MORE — Everything you need to know about the World Cup.

Which team has the best odds to win the 2014 World Cup, and which teams will win in the semi-finals? Find out below.

First, an update regarding how the odds are determined.

Using Elo ratings (ER), an elegant metric for calculating current strength based on weighted recent relative performance, each match’s expected outcome was plugged into a Poisson random number generator. Using weights derived from historical regression analysis and the knowledge that soccer goals per game follow a Poisson distribution, the generator churns out game outcomes. Structuring the matches into the World Cup’s schedule and storing the results for a half million simulations gives us the analysis below.

Odds for World Cup semi-finals:

Brazil wins 80.09 %
Germany wins 19.91 %

Argentina wins 61.60 %
Netherlands wins 38.40 %

Odds to win the 2014 FIFA World Cup:

Brazil – 62%
Argentina – 20%
Germany – 9%
Netherlands – 9%

Odds are according to Chris McFarland of Share Draft.

SEE MORE — Everything you need to know about the World Cup.

All eight games in the Round of 16 have been completed, so we now know who the final 8 teams are in the World Cup who will be vying to win the 2014 tournament.

Chris McFarland of Share Draft has re-run the data simulations to determine who are the teams most likely to win the World Cup.

First, an update regarding how the odds are determined.

Using Elo ratings (ER), an elegant metric for calculating current strength based on weighted recent relative performance, each match’s expected outcome was plugged into a Poisson random number generator. Using weights derived from historical regression analysis and the knowledge that soccer goals per game follow a Poisson distribution, the generator churns out game outcomes. Structuring the matches into the World Cup’s schedule and storing the results for a half million simulations gives us the analysis below.

Odds on the Top 8 teams most likely to win the World Cup:

1. Brazil 53.70%

2. Argentina 19.30%

3. Netherlands 11.92%

4. Germany 7.20%

5. Colombia 4.14%

6. France 2.58%

7. Belgium 0.91%

8. Costa Rica 0.25%

Odds for World Cup Quarterfinal games:

Brazil 82%
Colombia 18%

France 39%
Germany 61%

Netherlands 83%
Costa Rica 17%

Argentina 80%
Belgium 20%

Odds are according to Chris McFarland of Share Draft.

Read Chris’s original simulations of who will advance through the knockout stages to win the World Cup.

SEE MORE — Everything you need to know about the World Cup.

Now that four of the Round of 16 World Cup match have concluded, we know which 12 teams are still in with a chance of lifting the trophy and which 4 teams are out. Chris McFarland of Share Draft has re-run the data simulations to determine who are the teams most likely to win the World Cup.

First, an update regarding how the odds are determined.

Using Elo ratings (ER), an elegant metric for calculating current strength based on weighted recent relative performance, each match’s expected outcome was plugged into a Poisson random number generator. Using weights derived from historical regression analysis and the knowledge that soccer goals per game follow a Poisson distribution, the generator churns out game outcomes. Structuring the matches into the World Cup’s schedule and storing the results for a half million simulations gives us the analysis below.

Here are the top 12 teams most likely to win the World Cup:

1. Brazil 55.63%

2. Argentina 15.81%

3. Netherlands 13.15%

4. Germany 7.46%

5. Colombia 4.64%

6. France 1.81%

7. Belgium 0.52%

8. USA 0.37%

9. Costa Rica 0.32%

10. Switzerland 0.21%

11. Nigeria 0.08%

12. Algeria 0.01%

Odds are according to Chris McFarland of Share Draft.

Read Chris’s original simulations of who will advance through the knockout stages to win the World Cup.

SEE MORE — Everything you need to know about the World Cup.

Now that the Group matches have concluded, Chris McFarland of Share Draft has re-run the data simulations to determine who are the teams most likely to win the World Cup.

First, an update regarding how the odds are determined.

Using Elo ratings (ER), an elegant metric for calculating current strength based on weighted recent relative performance, each match’s expected outcome was plugged into a Poisson random number generator. Using weights derived from historical regression analysis and the knowledge that soccer goals per game follow a Poisson distribution, the generator churns out game outcomes. Structuring the matches into the World Cup’s schedule and storing the results for a half million simulations gives us the analysis below.

Here are the teams with the best odds to win the 2014 FIFA World Cup:

1. Brazil 53.90%
2. Argentina 18.10%
3. Germany 8.70%
4. Netherlands 8.60%
5. Colombia 2.90%
6. France 2.31%
7. Mexico 1.40%
8. Chile 1.15%
9. Uruguay 0.88%
10. Belgium 0.68%
11. USA 0.48%
12. Switzerland 0.28%
13. Greece 0.26%
14. Costa Rica 0.20%
15. Nigeria 0.10%
16. Algeria 0.06%

Odds are according to Chris McFarland of Share Draft.

Read Chris’s original simulations of who will advance through the knockout stages to win the World Cup.

SEE MORE — Everything you need to know about the World Cup.

Now that the Group stages of the World Cup have concluded, it’s time to review the upcoming Round of 16 games to see which teams have the best odds of advancing through to the quarter-finals of World Cup 2014.

Before we share the data, here’s a note from the editor.

Editor’s note: Chris McFarland’s analysis beat Nate Silver’s Soccer Power Index predictions for the Group stages of the World Cup. Silver’s predictions were 56.25% correct, while McFarland scored a 62.5% success rate. McFarland’s analysis that the USA would advance from the Group stage was also correct.

Round of 16 odds:

Saturday, June 28

Round of 16 — Brazil vs Chile, Noon ET

Brazil 88%
Chile 12%

Round of 16 — Uruguay vs Colombia, 4pm ET, ABC, Watch ABC,

Colombia 60%
Uruguay 40%

Sunday, June 29

Round of 16 — Mexico vs Netherlands, Noon ET

Netherlands 68%
Mexico 32%

Round of 16 — Costa Rica vs Greece, 4pm ET

Costa Rica 49.56%
Greece 50.44% 

Monday, June 30

Round of 16 — France vs Nigeria, Noon ET

France 73%
Nigeria 27%

Round of 16 — Germany vs Algeria, 4pm ET

Germany 92%
Algeria 8%

Tuesday, July 1

Round of 16 — Argentina vs Switzerland, Noon ET

Argentina 84%
Switzerland 16%

Round of 16 — USA vs Belgium, 4pm ET

Belgium 52.58%
USA 47.42%

Here are the odds for the top 10 teams most likely to win the 2014 FIFA World Cup. Note that the numbers were calculated before today’s World Cup games.

1. Brazil — 55%

2. Argentina — 17%

La Albiceleste keep benefiting more from the big names dropping out than Brazil, which may be because Brazil has a tough first R16 match on the horizon.

3. Germany — 7.6%

The draw against Ghana clobbered their rating.

4. Netherlands — 5.9%

Another win increases their rating and they accrue incremental improvement.

5. Chile — 3.7%

The big improvement this round. Chile are now legitimate contenders for the World Cup.

6. Colombia — 3.4%

Also in the mix for a surprise World Cup win.

7. France — 3%

They keep chewing up their easy group. Their rating is soaring because of big wins and they will face either Nigeria or Iran in the R16.

8. Mexico — 0.83%

Mexico have more chances with the big names dropping out.

9. Belgium — 0.72%

They seem intent on making their World Cup as difficult as possible but are now on the top ten list and will likely face the USA or Ghana in R16.

10. USA — 0.72%

The USA were one minute away from being in 8th place on this list.

Odds are according to Chris McFarland of Share Draft.

Read Chris’s simulations of who will advance past the group stage, as well as who will advance through the knockout stages to win the World Cup.

SEE MORE — Everything you need to know about the World Cup.

Everything is up for grabs in Group G. In the latest odds, the USA retains a surprisingly large 86% chance of advancing, according to Chris McFarland of Share Draft. The US Men’s National Team have a three point lead over Ghana and Portugal and a +1 goal difference compared to -1 for Ghana and -4 for Portugal.

Although playing Germany, the simulations do not expect Ghana to defeat Portugal. This leaves the USA with an 86% chance of progressing to the Round of 16.

Germany leads the way with 99.91% chance of advancing. They finish first in the group 81% of the time according to the simulations.

The simulations show Germany beating the US 55% of the time, drawing 26%, and the US winning 19%.

The most likely way for the US to miss progressing to the next round is by a large defeat to Germany and a one goal win against Portugal by Ghana.

The simulations do not reflect the full extent of the poor Portuguese play and numerous injuries. Ghana’s current 8.47% chance of advancing and Portugal’s 5.6% chance are likely higher for Ghana and lower for Portugal in reality.

What-if time. No question about the what-if this evening. Ronaldo’s cross is sliced into the stands and the USA clinches a spot in the R16. How much would this have increased the USA’s chances of winning the World Cup? Not much. Winning the match gave them a 0.85% chance of winning the World Cup and drawing the match decreased that to 0.72%. The problem is that, even if the US had won, Germany still won the group 55% of the time. That meant the USA was still more likely to run into Belgium in the Round of 16 with Argentina the likely opponent after that.

In terms of the overall goal of winning the World Cup, today’s result meant very little. In terms of raising the anxiety level of USA fans, it was of huge importance.

Here are the latest odds for the other teams based on the results from the last few days:

1. Italy have the slight edge over Uruguay because of goal difference. However, the 52/48 odds are the closes to a coin flip we’ve had all tournament.

2. France is through with a 99.99% chance of advancement.

3. Switzerland has a decided edge over Ecuador at 61/39%. Adjust these accordingly if you feel France will be playing at less than full throttle.

4. Despite have the better goal differential and a three point advantage, the simulations still give Iran a fighting chance at 18%. Nigeria should go though, however, at 82%.

5. Belgium has clinched so the other three teams scramble for the last spot. They win first place in the group 97% of the time.

6. Russia, despite only having a point and an unfavorable goal difference, is still favored to advance 53% of the time. Algeria is at 45.5%. South Korea has a 1.8% chance. This was a bit of a surprise result!

Read Chris’s simulations of who will advance past the group stage, as well as who will advance through the knockout stages to win the World Cup.

SEE MORE — Everything you need to know about the World Cup.

Although not yet finished, England are in a difficult spot. After England’s 2-1 defeat against Uruguay, England’s odds of advancing to the next round have dropped from 33% to 3%. It’s still possible they can squeeze into second place (see above graphic).

Meanwhile, here are the other odds of note after the World Cup matches from the previous two days:

1. Uruguay are loving Luis Suarez’s return, to the tune of 52% odds of advancement, up from 25%.

2. Costa Rica’s odds increased from 69% to 76% — even before they’ve played today’s game against Italy.

3. Italy’s results are interesting. Their odds declined from 73% to 70%. How could that be? Well, Uruguay’s rating improved because they beat a good England team. A better rating means that Italy is no longer as likely to win against Uruguay in Round 3. A subtle change. Also interesting, Italy is less likely to advance than Costa Rica, but more likely to finish first in the group.

4. Brazil, despite the draw with Mexico, is still in a good position to advance. Odds are 99.75% because the simulation has difficulty envisioning a Cameroon victory. A Cameroon victory is so unlikely that Brazil still wins first place 96% of the time.

5. Mexico’s odds are 70%, compared to 62% before the draw with Brazil. Although rated almost equivalent to Croatia, Mexico has the advantage because a draw takes them through.

6. Netherlands finish first in the group 66% of the time. Since they have the tiebreaker over Chile, a draw puts them in first place.

7. Congratulations to Colombia! They still have a very small chance of finishing second (0.99%) and a much greater chance of spoiling Japan’s chance of advancing.

8. Japan has only 6% odds of making the Round of 16.

9. Greece, even though they have only a single point and are behind Japan on the tie-breaker, still have 26% odds of advancing. Even though they are more likely than Japan to advance, they are also more likely to finish in fourth place! Very strange circumstances.

10. Ivory Coast is in a good position but even a draw might not be enough, if Japan win by two goals or win by one, 3-2. Odds of advancing for Ivory Coast are 68%.

Read Chris’s simulations of who will advance past the group stage, as well as who will advance through the knockout stages to win the World Cup.

SEE MORE — Everything you need to know about the World Cup.

Now that the first round of games in the 2014 FIFA World Cup have concluded, here are the top 10 teams most-likely to win the World Cup. Note that the top 10 list doesn’t factor in the first match of the second round of games that was played today between Brazil and Mexico.

1. Brazil — 54% (unchanged)

2. Argentina — 15% (Argentina are the biggest beneficiary of Spain getting beat 5-1 by Netherlands, increasing their chances of winning from 10% to 15%)

3. Germany — 8.8% (increased from 4.5% after defeating Portugal)

4. Netherlands — 5.5% (an increase from 1.2%)

5. Spain — 5.1% (a huge drop from the 21% odds at the beginning of the tournament)

6. Colombia — 3.3% (increased from 1.6%; They now have a 94% chance of making it out of their group)

7. France — 1.9% (increase from 1.2%)

8. Chile — 1.5% (increase from 1.0% at beginning of World Cup)

9. Mexico — 0.7% (increase from 0.2%)

10. USA — 0.6% (increase from 0.2%).

Read Chris’s simulations of who will advance past the group stage, as well as who will advance through the knockout stages to win the World Cup.

SEE MORE — Everything you need to know about the World Cup.

After the USA’s 2-1 win against Ghana, the US increased their odds of advancing to Round of 16 of the World Cup from 41% to 69%. With the win, the USMNT also doubled their chances of winning the World Cup — all the way to 0.58%. The US is now ranked number nine most likely to win, according to analytical simulations calculated by Chris McFarland of ShareDraft.com.

With the loss, Ghana’s chances of advancing have dropped from 20% to 7%.

In the odds for the other games played today and yesterday, the latest changes are:

1. Nigeria’s odds of advancing declined from 47% to 42%,

2. Bosnia benefitted from the draw and their odds increased from 30% to 34%. Not much of an increase but it is a tight group.

3. Iran, perhaps strangely, are rated poorly enough that their odds of advancing remained the same after the drawn match. Why? They are the worst team in the group and Bosnia have already played Argentina.

4. Germany and Portugal. Germany was favored to win and did not disappoint. However, the margin of victory was a surprise and gave Germany a nice ratings boost because of a strong opponent. Germany’s odds of advancing increased from 80% to 97%.

5. The ratings don’t know about Portugal’s injuries or suspension. They are based only on match results. Even without adjustments to Portugal’s strength their odds of advancing drop from 49% to 27%. Still, despite the drubbing at the hands of Germany there is perhaps some reason for optimism for Portugal fans. 1 in 4 odds of advancing after a signficant first match loss is still pretty good.

6. Germany increased their odds of winning the World Cup from 5% to 8%. This increase came mostly at the expense of Brazil, since Germany is now almost certain to make the Round of 16.

7. The projected winners of Groups E and F solidified their positions. France has an 88% chance of advancing, up from 75%. Argentina was always going to advance, with their odds rising from 94% to 98%.

8. How much is a 93rd minute goal to win the match worth to Switzerland? An much as you would expect. Switzerland were just behind Ecuador in rating going into the match. Ecuador had a 62% chance of advancing overall and the Swiss were at 51%. In an alternate world, where the referee did not play an excellent advantage and the game ended in a draw, their odds of advancing were basically the same (63% for Ecuador / 50% for Switzerland). IN this world the goal was scored and Switzerland jumps all the way to 85% odds, with Ecuador dropping to 23%.

9. Sorry Honduras. At 4% you are on your way out.

10. Argentina raised their odds to win the cup slightly, from 13 to 14%.

Read Chris’s simulations of who will advance past the group stage, as well as who will advance through the knockout stages to win the World Cup.

SEE MORE — Everything you need to know about the World Cup.

Here are the 5 biggest changes to the World Cup odds based on Saturday’s Day 3 games between Italy-England, Colombia-Greece, Uruguay versus Costa Rica and Ivory Coast-Japan, thanks to Chris McFarland at ShareDraft.com.

1. Big win for Colombia.

Already the favorite in the group at 73% chance of advancing, the 3-0 win against Greece boosts them almost to “lock” status at 95%. Even more encouraging for their fans, they are now sixth most likely to win the World Cup.

2. What a difference a single match makes!

Ivory Coast (43%) and Japan (42%) started the tournament with almost equivalent odds of advancing to the Round of 16. After Ivory Coast’s come-from-behind victory, they have a 76% chance now compared to Japan’s 15%.

3. Costa Rica’s surprise win over Uruguay hurts Uruguay’s chances significantly.

Since Uruguay has England and Italy left to face, they drop from 73% to 25% chance of advancing. This was a tough group but it was expected to be a battle between Italy, England, and Uruguay. Italy has the best odds of advancing, at 72%, but this group is still open, with the smallest range of odds out of the groups who have played.

4. Perhaps most interesting out of Group D is the lower than expected odds of any of the teams winning the World Cup.

Italy has less chance than Mexico! Italy’s rating has taken a beating because their recent form has been poor. Draws against Luxembourg and Ireland, with a poor run even before those matches, lowered their rating so much that they are rated the equivalent of Ivory Coast. It certainly can be argued that their recent form was an aberration but the algorithm doesn’t care. It is based on the best predictive fit over every international match played since 1900. If you feel Italy’s recent form is not representative of their quality, then Italy’s odds of winning are much lower than they should be.

5. No draws so far!

The simulations only give this a 5% chance of happening through the first eight matches. What an entertaining World Cup to date.

Read Chris’s simulations of who will advance past the group stage, as well as who will advance through the knockout stages to win the World Cup.

SEE MORE — Everything you need to know about the World Cup.

Who will advance through the knockout stages of the World Cup, and go all the win to be crowned 2014 FIFA World Cup champions?

The previous article analyzed the group stages of the 2014 World Cup. Using a computer simulation that generated estimated goal amounts based on each team’s Elo Rating (ER) as of May 18, 2014, the outcomes of each match were determined by random numbers from a Poisson distribution. The tournament was simulated half a million times.

The value of the simulation is not determining what teams are most likely to advance. The use of seeding in World Cup groups, as well as common sense, reveals that much. What the simulations provide are percentage likelihoods of each outcome. If you want to know how likely it is that Brazil will finish fourth in their group (0.11% without home field advantage (HFA), then a simulation is the best way to do so.

Of course, simulations reflect the assumptions of the author. This study has two main assumptions:

1. That ER from http://www.eloratings.net is a valid measure of the relative strength of each team

2. That the estimated goals algorithm used to feed the Poisson generator is reasonable.

Home Field Advantage

As described in the previous article, whether or not to include home field advantage (HFA) for Brazil was a difficult decision. After looking at each set of results and the dramatically different outcomes they predict, it was decided to use the results with HFA included. Since only Brazil benefits from this inclusion, the obvious difference is that including HFA increases Brazil’s chances of winning the 2014 World Cup.

The Round of 16

The sixteen teams advancing to the elimination rounds of the tournament do not have an equal chance to win the tournament. If strong groups cluster together in the original draw, then the teams advancing from the group stages will have more difficult Round of 16 (R16) matches. Nowhere is this more evident than in Group A and Group B.

With HFA included, Brazil wins their group 96% of the time. This means that either Spain or the Netherlands will likely face Brazil in the R16. 41% of the time this will be the Netherlands, 25% of the time it will be Spain. This difficult round is reflected in their odds of advancing to the quarterfinals. Spain fails to make the quarterfinals 27% of the time. The Netherlands fail to advance from the R16 63% of the time they advance from the group stages. It is amazing that the team ranked fifth in the world by ER has only a 24% chance overall of advancing to the quarterfinals. It is also worth mentioning that Chile has only a 10% chance of making the quarterfinals despite being ranked tenth in the world. Surprisingly, Nigeria has a better chance of making the quarterfinals than Chile.

There are three teams with very favorable draws. Most obvious is Germany. Although in the second strongest group, they are still forecast to dominate and finish first. They then play the second best team in the worst group of the tournament. This will be either Russia or Belgium. Germany has an 84% chance to advance to the quarterfinals, just barely behind Brazil’s percentage. Portugal also benefits from the group match up and has a 46% chance to reach the quarterfinals.

The winner of Group D has a nice advantage. Colombia will probably win Group C and the second place team in Group C will be somewhat weak. England takes this advantage and turns in a 43% chance of quarterfinal action. Uruguay and Italy, after the brutal competition in Group D, also have a bit of a boost in the round of 16 for the same reason as England.

France, after their fortunate Group stage draw, also get a fortunate R16 draw. They will likely play the second place team in Group F, one of Bosnia, Nigeria, or Iran. France has a 40% chance to advance. Not bad for a team with an 1872 ER.

There are a couple of other slight oddities. If the USA can survive their group stage, which is unlikely, they do have a reasonable chance of passing the R16 (20%). Forgotten in Group A is Croatia, with a decent chance of advancing to the R16. However, if they get there, then Spain or Netherlands greets them with a 6% chance of advancement. South Korea also over-performs and advances to the quarterfinals 5% of the time 

Quarterfinals

Groups A and B have an advantage over Groups C and D in the quarterfinals. The most frequent pairings are Brazil v Colombia and Spain v England. It is not surprising that Brazil’s odds of advancing barely decline between the R16 and the quarter finals, from 85% to 80%. Four out of five times Brazil is expected to make the semifinals! Spain also does well, advancing 54% of the time. It looks as though England’s usual tournament lament of making the knockout phase only to lose in the quarterfinals will come true again. There does not appear to be any easy path through the quarterfinals this tournament. England makes the semifinals only 10% of the time.

The other groups are more mixed head to head. The most frequent pairings are: France v Germany and Argentina v Portugal.

What is most striking are how few oddities appear in the quarterfinals compared to the R16. The attenuation of poorer teams is dramatic as the tournament progresses. On the one hand, this is a good thing. After all, the tournament is supposed to identify the best team in the world. On the other hand, it is fun watching a surprise run by a poorer quality team. It occurs in the simulations less frequently than expected. Only eight teams have a greater than 10% chance of making the semifinals. Brazil (80%), Germany (69%), Spain (54%), Argentina (47%), Portugal (24%), Netherlands (16%), France (14%), England (10%).

The largest discrepancies between odds of advancing to the semifinals and team strength are:

France: Over-performs because of advantages accrued in group and R16

Netherlands: Under-performs because of Brazil in R16

Portugal: Over-performs because of pairing with Group H in R16

The USA has a 7% chance to make the semifinals, slightly higher than Belgium!

Semifinals

Only four teams have greater than 10% odds of advancing to the final. Such is the disparity in team quality as the tournament progresses that all four of those teams are at 20% or greater odds of advancing. They are Brazil (67%), Germany (45.25%), Spain (26.53%) and Argentina (20%). Spain is surprisingly low. The difficult group for Spain and tough potential R16 matches weighs heavy on their odds. Spain is the most likely favorite to surprise to the downside in this World Cup. Of course, most teams would love a one in four chance of playing in the final, so perhaps it is not that dire. It is also worth mentioning the pure domination Brazil has in the simulation when playing with historical levels of HFA. Two out of three times they play in the final despite having a difficult R16 match.

The second tier of teams, in terms advancing to the final, contains Portugal (8%), Netherlands (6%), France (5%), England (3%), Colombia (3%) and Uruguay (3%).

Who Wins?

There is no surprise here except the extent of the domination. Brazil wins 55% of the time. This result prompted a thorough check of the simulation to make sure everything was working properly. It was. However, a fair amount of this domination comes from HFA. Take that out and Brazil wins 31% of the time. This is much closer to the betting lines.

The winning percentages run like this: Brazil (55%), Spain (17%), Germany (14%) and Argentina (6%). The current betting lines from skybet are: Brazil (3/1), Argentina (9/2), Germany (11/2) and Spain (11/2). It looks as though the professional lines are giving Argentina a HFA advantage.

All other nations have a very small chance of winning. England is (0.87%, 25/1) and the USA is (0.16%, 250/1). Belgium is still the dark horse in the professional gambling world. Odds at 18/1 but the simulation gives a 0.12% chance of winning!

The most frequent match-ups in the finals are:

Brazil v Spain – 43% of all finals – Brazil wins 66%

Brazil v Argentina – 22% of all finals – Brazil wins 80%

Germany v Spain – 19% of all finals – Spain wins 54%

Brazil v Germany – 13% of all finals – Brazil wins 68%

Germany v Argentina – 12 % of all finals – Germany wins 64%

Brazil v Netherlands – 7% of all finals – Brazil wins 83%

Brazil v Portugal – 6% of all finals – Brazil wins 88%

The third place match is usually an afterthought. However, in the interest of full disclosure, here are the odds of winning third place:

Germany – 33%

Argentina – 14%

Brazil – 11%

Spain – 11%

Over half a million simulations, the teams least likely to win the World Cup are:

Algeria – 0 wins

Cameroon – 1 Win

Australia – 2 Wins

Honduras – 3 Wins

Ghana – 6 Wins

Algeria fans, please adjust your expectations accordingly.

Run the World Cup enough and some funny things happen just through random luck. Unusual match-ups that occurred only a single time in the final are:

Honduras v Mexico

Ivory Coast v Japan

Nigeria v Bosnia

Ghana v Croatia