To increase the number of Champions League teams to 36, two leagues will be given an additional spot for next year. That depends on how well they did in Europe this year.

For this season’s coefficient rankings, UEFA looks at how each team fares in the UEFA Champions League, Europa League and Europa Conference League. As teams go through the tournaments and win games, they accumulate coefficient points.

In the three European tournaments, a victory counts for two points, and a draw counts for one point after qualification. Champions League clubs get five extra points for advancing to the quarterfinals and an additional point for each subsequent round. For every round played in the round of 16, Europa League teams get one additional point.

Going all the way to the Conference League final and semi-finals also earns you one additional point. After that, UEFA tallies up all the coefficient points that each team in a league has earned. To get the league’s overall score, divide it by the total number of European clubs playing that season.

Italy deservedly bags extra UCL spot based on performances

There has been constant back-and-forth between Serie A, the English Premier League, and the German Bundesliga this season. It is due to many Italian clubs’ strong showings in last year’s three European championships. Therefore, Serie A mathematically secured one of the additional spots on Thursday based on the results from the Conference League and Europa League quarterfinals. Fiorentina advanced in the Conference League, while Roma and Atalanta advanced in the Europa League.

Thus, there will be five clubs from Italy earning a UCL spot, even though none of their teams made it beyond the quarterfinals. Inter lost to Atletico Madrid and Barcelona beat Napoli in the round of 16. Still, the season UEFA coefficient ranking now shows Italy far ahead of their rivals.

Even more intriguing is the fact that next season, Italy may have six clubs participating in the Champions League. That can only take place if an Italian team wins the Europa League, whether that be Roma or Atalanta. Equally crucial is the fact that they must not finish the Serie A season in the top five. As things stand, Atalanta is seventh in Serie A, four points behind Roma in fifth.

Can England earn the second new slot?

The second additional Champions League berth seems to be up for grabs between England and Germany. This week, the Premier League saw four clubs eliminated from European play. It destroyed any chance they had of earning a position in the UEFA Champions League next season.

There is currently not a single English club participating in either the Champions League or the Europa League. The Premier League now has just Aston Villa to rely on after defeats for Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool and West Ham this week.

The success of Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich in advancing to the Champions League semifinals has put the Bundesliga in a good position. The current percentages to earn an additional Champions League slot put Germany (98.8%) ahead of England (1.1%).

To guarantee an additional position in the UCL, England must ensure that Aston Villa win all three of its remaining matches in full-time. Another thing that has to happen is for one of the German teams to lose (or draw). Lastly, French clubs must eventually lose one of their remaining matches.