Which team has the best odds to win the 2014 World Cup, and which teams will win in the semi-finals? Find out below.
First, an update regarding how the odds are determined.
Using Elo ratings (ER), an elegant metric for calculating current strength based on weighted recent relative performance, each match’s expected outcome was plugged into a Poisson random number generator. Using weights derived from historical regression analysis and the knowledge that soccer goals per game follow a Poisson distribution, the generator churns out game outcomes. Structuring the matches into the World Cup’s schedule and storing the results for a half million simulations gives us the analysis below.
Odds for World Cup semi-finals:
Brazil wins 80.09 %
Germany wins 19.91 %
Argentina wins 61.60 %
Netherlands wins 38.40 %
Odds to win the 2014 FIFA World Cup:
Brazil – 62%
Argentina – 20%
Germany – 9%
Netherlands – 9%
Odds are according to Chris McFarland of Share Draft.
SEE MORE — Everything you need to know about the World Cup.