Only 30% of Community Shield Winners Go On to Become Premier League Champions

With Arsenal’s 3-0 victory over Manchester City in the latest Community Shield, people in the soccer world are now starting to see the Gunners as a contender to win the Premier League title this season. Claiming the top spot is within their grasp if they keep their players fit. But does winning the Community Shield actually mean anything towards the actual season ahead?

The Community Shield is a match where the winner of the Premier League faces the F.A Cup winner of the previous season. Normally seen as a warm-up to the actual season, the trophy (or Shield) lacks prestige and even though it’s a trophy to add to the cabinet, it’s not exactly a victory to shout from the rooftops.

With Arsenal’s convincing winning against Premier League champions Manchester City, it has some people seeing the result as a sign of things to come. But is that an accurate observation based on the track record of Community Shield victors from the last 20 years?

Let’s take a look.



Final Position


Manchester United Second


Everton Sixth


Manchester United First


Manchester United Second


Arsenal Second


Arsenal Second


Chelsea Sixth


Liverpool Second


Arsenal Second


Manchester United Third


Arsenal Second


Chelsea First


Liverpool Third


Manchester United First


Manchester United First


Chelsea First


Manchester United First


Manchester United Second


Manchester City Second


Manchester United Seventh

As can be seen, the signs aren’t that promising for Arsenal. The winner of the Shield then went on to win the league only six times. That represents 30% of the teams winning the Premier League after lofting the Community Shield above their heads.

Interestingly, there have only been three occasions where the winner finished outside the top four showing that if you win the game it usually guarantees a relatively good season.

With it being ten years since Arsenal last won the league, fans can either look positively or negatively at the 30% conversion rate from a Community Shield to a Premier League trophy. Is it in the stars for the Gunners this season?

MORE — For more Gunners news, read the Arsenal team page.

6 thoughts on “Only 30% of Community Shield Winners Go On to Become Premier League Champions”

  1. are you dumb or what??? 1 in 3 go on to win the title, whereas, 2 in 19 teams for the other 2 years (those that don’t win the community shield) go on to win. work out for yourself where the better odds are…

  2. I don’t even know where to start with this. Firstly, even if you assume only 4 of the 20 teams can realistically win the league (and I think it’s really more than 4) then those 4 teams have an average of 25% chance each. Thus, Community Shield winners winning the league 30% of the time is actually better than that.

    Secondly, the statement “Interestingly, there have only been three occasions where the winner finished outside the top four showing that if you win the game it usually guarantees a relatively good season.” is a classic case of Post Hoc ergo Propter Hoc. However, just because one thing follows the other doesn’t mean it is caused by it. Winning the Community Shield does not cause a team to do well in the league, in fact both things are outcomes of the same cause, namely that the team is pretty good team.

    I can see what you were trying to say, namely that more often than not the Community Shield winner doesn’t win the league, but given there are 20 teams in the league, ever team has a higher probability of not winning the league than they do of winning it. I think if you offered any team a 30% chance that they would win the league they would bite your hand off.

  3. But do you also remember that, for years know permier league champion is also FA communtiy shield champion?, but Arsenal change de situation this year? Likewise the EPL title change to arsenal.

  4. Taking one example. 2013. Manchester United beat Wigan 2-0. Wigan were never going to win the league – and didn’t once Martinez left for Everton, and Manchester United, after Ferguson, had an ageing side in transition. They ended up seventh.

    Creepy and supernatural?

    So, what can we draw from this … oh, yes (a) that Moyes was crap and (b) winning the Community Shield jinxes a club’s ability to win the Premier League title. (But only in the same year.)

    Try compiling a list of PL winners from those with team colours and you’ll probably find that since 1994 the title winners predominately play in red – 15 to 6.

    You can then conclude that playing in red gives a club a hefty advantage instead of concluding that Manchester United (pre Abramovich and pre Mansour) had a massive financial advantage and Arsenal had Bergkamp, Pires, Henry, and Vieira.

    As @LaticsFan says/implies you appear to have a worrying penchant for logical fallacies while @deejay1952 says/implies you might not have written a piece capable of withstanding even a modest degree of intellectual rigour.

    With this in mind perhaps you might wish to entertain a different pastime well away from football commentary. I’ve heard good things about baking. Just a suggestion, but you might want to give that a try.

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