Here are the 5 biggest changes to the World Cup odds based on Saturday’s Day 3 games between Italy-England, Colombia-Greece, Uruguay versus Costa Rica and Ivory Coast-Japan, thanks to Chris McFarland at ShareDraft.com.
1. Big win for Colombia.
Already the favorite in the group at 73% chance of advancing, the 3-0 win against Greece boosts them almost to “lock” status at 95%. Even more encouraging for their fans, they are now sixth most likely to win the World Cup.
2. What a difference a single match makes!
Ivory Coast (43%) and Japan (42%) started the tournament with almost equivalent odds of advancing to the Round of 16. After Ivory Coast’s come-from-behind victory, they have a 76% chance now compared to Japan’s 15%.
3. Costa Rica’s surprise win over Uruguay hurts Uruguay’s chances significantly.
Since Uruguay has England and Italy left to face, they drop from 73% to 25% chance of advancing. This was a tough group but it was expected to be a battle between Italy, England, and Uruguay. Italy has the best odds of advancing, at 72%, but this group is still open, with the smallest range of odds out of the groups who have played.
4. Perhaps most interesting out of Group D is the lower than expected odds of any of the teams winning the World Cup.
Italy has less chance than Mexico! Italy’s rating has taken a beating because their recent form has been poor. Draws against Luxembourg and Ireland, with a poor run even before those matches, lowered their rating so much that they are rated the equivalent of Ivory Coast. It certainly can be argued that their recent form was an aberration but the algorithm doesn’t care. It is based on the best predictive fit over every international match played since 1900. If you feel Italy’s recent form is not representative of their quality, then Italy’s odds of winning are much lower than they should be.
5. No draws so far!
The simulations only give this a 5% chance of happening through the first eight matches. What an entertaining World Cup to date.
Read Chris’s simulations of who will advance past the group stage, as well as who will advance through the knockout stages to win the World Cup.
SEE MORE — Everything you need to know about the World Cup.