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7 Most Revealing World Cup Odds After Days 1-2 Of Tournament

odds of winning world cup 600x298 7 Most Revealing World Cup Odds After Days 1 2 Of Tournament

After two days of matches in the 2014 FIFA World Cup, the implication of the results thus far have direct impacts on the odds of teams advancing and winning the World Cup.

Thanks to Chris McFarland at, here are the 7 most revealing odds after days 1-2 of the tournament.

1. Spain drops from 90% chance of advancing to 43%.

Spain’s odds of winning the cup drop from 20% to 5%. This is caused by both decreased chance of advancing and a much greater chance of facing Brazil in the round of 16. They now are more likely to not advance that to advance. Remember when the original analysis indicated Spain as a likely candidate for disappointment?

2. Netherlands shock annihilation of Spain increased odds of advancing from 52% to 90% and of winning the cup from 1.15% to 5%

3. Brazil’s win was expected and their odds of advancing were already 99%

4. Mexico’s chances of advancing increase from 50% to 60%

5. Chile get a nice boost from 49% to 61% odds of advancement.

6. Although it may seem counter intuitive, Brazil’s chances of winning the cup just increased 10% because of the Spain-Netherlands result. Why? Because the chances of Brazil facing Chile in the Round of 16 just increased substantially.

7. Cameroon and Australia will not advance but we knew that before the games were played.

Read Chris’s simulations of who will advance past the group stage, as well as who will advance through the knockout stages to win the World Cup.

SEE MOREEverything you need to know about the World Cup.

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About Christopher Harris

Founder and publisher of World Soccer Talk, Christopher Harris is the managing editor of the site. He has been interviewed by The New York Times, The Guardian and several other publications. Plus he has made appearances on NPR, BBC World, CBC, BBC Five Live, talkSPORT and beIN SPORT. Harris, who has lived in Florida since 1984, has supported Swansea City since 1979. He's also an expert on soccer in South Florida, and got engaged during half-time of a MLS game. Harris launched EPL Talk in 2005, which was rebranded as World Soccer Talk in 2013.
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One Response to 7 Most Revealing World Cup Odds After Days 1-2 Of Tournament

  1. R.O says:

    And this could all change by the 2nd games of the group stage and again by the end of the group stage and then again as the WC goes on.

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