After two days of matches in the 2014 FIFA World Cup, the implication of the results thus far have direct impacts on the odds of teams advancing and winning the World Cup.
Thanks to Chris McFarland at ShareDraft.com, here are the 7 most revealing odds after days 1-2 of the tournament.
1. Spain drops from 90% chance of advancing to 43%.
Spain’s odds of winning the cup drop from 20% to 5%. This is caused by both decreased chance of advancing and a much greater chance of facing Brazil in the round of 16. They now are more likely to not advance that to advance. Remember when the original analysis indicated Spain as a likely candidate for disappointment?
2. Netherlands shock annihilation of Spain increased odds of advancing from 52% to 90% and of winning the cup from 1.15% to 5%
3. Brazil’s win was expected and their odds of advancing were already 99%
4. Mexico’s chances of advancing increase from 50% to 60%
5. Chile get a nice boost from 49% to 61% odds of advancement.
6. Although it may seem counter intuitive, Brazil’s chances of winning the cup just increased 10% because of the Spain-Netherlands result. Why? Because the chances of Brazil facing Chile in the Round of 16 just increased substantially.
7. Cameroon and Australia will not advance but we knew that before the games were played.
Read Chris’s simulations of who will advance past the group stage, as well as who will advance through the knockout stages to win the World Cup.
SEE MORE — Everything you need to know about the World Cup.