Although Mexico faced South Africa in 2010, facing Brazil in the 2014 World Cup was going to be an experience like none other. With the previous Olympic defeat in their minds, the Scratch du Oro were eager to show the world that such defeat was only a slip in their winning history. With a stadium almost full of canarinho fans and a overly passionate chant of Brazil’s national anthem, the Brazilian squad quickly showed that things were different this time.

Once the game started, it was clear that both teams had studied their opponents. Brazil came out with the objective of neutralizing Mexico’s midfield, specially Vázquez and Herrrera, forcing Mexico to only pursue counter attack opportunities. As the game progressed, the pressure from Brazil and it’s fans took a toll on Mexico but Ochoa made a statement as to why he starts as keeper for El Tri. In the second half, Mexico clearly had instructions of shooting from long distance since Brazil’s defense was not letting Mexico play near Julio Cesar. Brazil kept the same game plan and were witnesses of Ochoa’s impressive performance. In the end, Mexico’s left Fortaleza with one more point and a higher probability of passing on to the knockout stage.

It is clear that when the hero of a game is your keeper there are many things to rectify from your display. For instance, although Mexico and Brazil shot almost the same amount of times, Mexico was only able to reach the target three times, while Brazil hit the target eight times.

However, Mexico’s shots were no threat for Brazil’s goal, while some of Brazil’s chances miraculously did not go in. In other words, Mexico’s World Cup run could fall short if the defense is not able to stop rivals from shooting on goal as much and if the offense does not sharpen its aim.

As for Monday’s game, the Blazers are still an incognito in Brazil since they have been inconsistent and have not shown the same display in their past two group stage games; moreover, their superstar players, Modric and Rakitic, have not played up to their reputations and are still to show why they are valued so highly.

Croatia will probably be well aware that one of Mexico’s weak spots are set pieces and crosses and with Mandzukic on the field, every cross and corner will be considered a threat for Mexico’s goal.

In numbers, according to fivethirtyeight.com, Mexico’s probability of passing on to the round of 16 is 68%, leaving Croatia only with only a 32% chance of moving on to knockout stage. Nevertheless, we have only seen four ties in the fist two rounds of group stage games and with Croatia’s need of three points, it is unlikely that the score will finish level. Then again, Mexico will not only rely on numbers. A much better team play, an “unbeatable” keeper, a inhospitable climate and a stadium full of Mexicans will be some aspects that will tilt the scales in Mexico’s favor. As well, luck has been on Mexico’s side since the qualifiers and has now showed against Brazil that they have no intentions of leaving Mexico.

Nevertheless, setting aside any argument in favor of these squads, a tiny mistake or a skillful action could be the difference between victory or defeat in such a close game. We are in for an early knockout stage treat that will see once more if team work may go further than individualities. Either way, no matter the scoreboard, the football that will be displayed on Monday will surely leave football victorious.

After months of inconsistent and poor performances by Mexico, fans of El Tri are finally relieved after Mexico’s win against Cameroon, but are now overconfident about Mexico’s future in the World Cup. After the final whistle blew on Friday, Mexicans are expecting to at least draw against Brazil on Tuesday and finally beat Croatia to secure a spot in the knockout stage. However, El Tri and its fans should not rest on their laurels and fall into a false sense of belief regarding Mexico’s possible reach.

Cameroon’s performance on the field was awful and was not up to the challenge that a World Cup debut implies. The “untamable lions” seemed more like domesticated kittens and failed to put pressure on Mexico. In addition, Cameroon was, as everybody, surprised by Mexico’s quick first touch and physical effort to recover the ball. Despite the above, with a such poor display, Cameroon had many shots — almost as many as Mexico, and could have leveled the game with a last minute header. Moreover, Mexico seemed to have run out of breath during the final 15-20 minutes and started to allow open spaces f0r Cameroon to veer close to the goal.

The game against Brazil will be a much harder test for Mexico, and will reveal Mexico’s real odds in this year’s World Cup betting odds. With a much more aggressive pace than Cameroon, Brazil will pressure Mexico and will inevitably expose El Tri’s slow defense. Furthermore, the Scratch du Oro will hop on the field with a lighter burden and will display a more elaborate performance that could only be restrained if Mexico’s midfield proves to be as relentless as it was against Cameroon.

Mexico is well aware that Brazil will probably secure its place in the knockout stage with a win against El Tri; moreover, Croatia’s defeat against Brazil and Mexico’s victory against Cameroon were outcomes expected by El Piojo Herrera. In that sense, Mexico’s task against Brazil has probably always been to lose by only one goal and, as expected, face their third match against Croatia with a “loser goes home” mentality.

“Not everything that shines is gold.”

El Tri is on the verge of playing their most important FIFA World Cup in years. The 2014 FIFA World Cup might be very significant as Mexico’s roster is comprised by a balance between promising and experienced players. Moreover, out of the 23 players that will take on the tournament in Brazil, 10 players were part of the squad that won the gold medal in the 2012 Summer Olympics. As such, it seems that Mexico is headed to an impressive World Cup performance.

However, the actual panorama of the Mexican squad is far from ideal. In the past year, Mexico has had 4 different managers and the list of players that have been called up to play for El Tri is as long as ever. Moreover, essential players such as Andres Guardado and Javier Hernandez struggled last season to have a consistent amount of time on the pitch.  To make matters worse, Carlos Vela, currently the best Mexican player, is not even willing to be part of Mexico’s World Cup roster.

In addition to the above, Miguel Herrera has shown that he is still searching to define his starting XI. Mexico’s last four matches against Israel, Ecuador, Bosnia and Portugal confirm that “El Piojo” Herrera is experimenting as much as he can. In fact, the 23 players that have been called up for the World Cup have all seen action in those games, and still don’t know if they will start for Mexico on June 13 against Cameroon. Furthermore, the injury of Luis Montes, one of the few Mexican players that was considered to have a secure place in the staring XI, has aggravated the uncertainty that surrounds the Mexican squad. The feeling of uncertainty is such that I have witnessed Mexican soccer experts disagree greatly in their prediction of Mexico’s performance in the 2014 FIFA World Cup. For some of them, Mexico will be mediocre and probably won’t secure more than 3 points in the group stage. On the other hand, others believe that Mexico should be able to grab a victory against Cameroon and Croatia and draw against Brazil.

On the bright side, Mexicans still have reasons to feel optimistic (at least during group stage). If Mexico has shown anything in the in the past World Cups, it is that regardless of the players, coaches and strategies, the group stage is usually not a problem. In fact, along with Brazil and Germany, Mexico has progressed to the knockout stage in the last 5 World Cups. If you add this World Cup expertise to a so called “golden generation” of players, we could be days away from seeing Mexico sail effortlessly through group stage. Unfortunately for Mexico, its path seems to be destined to end in the round of 16. Since Brazil will probably win at least two of its three group matches, Mexico is aspiring to, at best, the second place of Group A. In such an event, Mexico will move on to the round of 16 and encounter the first place of Group B, a fierce group consisting of Australia, Chile, the Netherlands, and Spain.

More than ever, the path of El Tri seems uncertain and full of questions. However, every World Cup we get pleasant surprises from teams that overcome their adverse conditions and surprisingly reach relevant stages of the tournament. The question is: will Mexico shine like gold and establish itself as a World Cup heavyweight, or will it shine like pyrite and again turn out to be a World Cup deception?