In September, I placed a bet that Real Madrid would win the UEFA Champions League. I believed that Real Madrid would win the Champions League when I made that wager, and eight months later nothing has changed. That’s not to say that Atletico haven’t had a fantastic year that has been profitable for savvy betters. Constantly disrespected by the bookmakers, their favorable odds netted the sharps a nice payday while the irresistible odds that were offered for Chelsea and Barcelona in the prior two rounds wreaked havoc on the casual player’s bankroll. I’ve looked at the two clubs head to head results, motivation, recent form, and most important player, and believe that while Atletico have had a fantastic run this season, all signs point to the fabled Decima finally becoming a reality for Real Madrid.

Atletico’s fightback versus Barcelona last week was commendable, but the size advantage they enjoyed versus La Blaugrana will not be repeated versus Real Madrid. Barcelona’s possession-based philosophy played perfectly into the defensive style of Atletico, but Real’s direct approach will prove to be a more tricky task for Los Rojiblancos to contain.  We’ve seen these two sides play four times this season, and while Atletico won the first match eight months ago, Real are unbeaten in the three matches that took place in 2014, including a 2-0 win at the Calderon (although admittedly, both goals in that match came from the spot). Neither side has been dominant against the other, but the results from the 4 matches indicate a slight advantage for Real Madrid.

While Real Madrid have had their share of domestic dominance throughout their storied history, their European conquests are why they are arguably the biggest club in the world. Real Madrid’s pursuit of La Decima has been the club’s priority since 2002, and judging by their final 3 league performances, the full attention of Los Blancos was turned to Lisbon the moment they booked their spot in the final. This is in stark contrast to Atletico Madrid, whose search for their own Decima ended in triumph with a point at the Camp Nou that secured the club’s tenth Spanish crown. This was a massive accomplishment for Atletico, but you can’t help but get the sense that the game versus Barcelona was their true cup final, while Real Madrid have looked disinterested in the league since they qualified against Bayern. The difference between the two clubs is that while Atletico’s players want to win the Champions League, Real Madrid’s players feel like they have to win, which is why I’m giving the edge to Real Madrid in the motivation department.

The recent form of both teams has been far from convincing, but both sides had strong finishes to the season that they will look to build on at the Stadio de Luz. Once Real brought Luka Modric on in the second half of last weekend’s game versus Espanyol, they looked like the side that ripped Bayern Munich apart at the Allianz. Atletico haven’t won since their victory in London against Chelsea in April, but two comebacks against Malaga and Barcelona showed the never-say-die attitude that manager Diego Simeone has instilled in his club. Neither team comes into this match in fantastic form, which is why I’m calling this category a draw.

While it would be easy to talk about Ronaldo or Bale as Real Madrid’s most important player this Saturday, the reality is that the one player who can’t have a poor game is Luka Modric. The Croatian’s willingness to track back on defense and ability to thread the perfect through ball to Ronaldo or Bale on the wings is going to be the key to breaching Atletico’s air tight defense, especially in the absence of Xabi Alonso. As Alexis Sanchez’s goal last weekend proved, it takes a truly special play to beat the Atletico goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois, who is my most important player this weekend for the underdogs.  Courtois has been rock solid for Atletico all season, and with the lethal dead ball skills Ronaldo and Bale possess, he will need to maintain that brilliant form to quell the chances that any foul near Courtois goal will present. If either of these players has a poor match, it will almost certainly spell defeat for their respective side.

As it’s often the case with matches between top sides, a moment of brilliance or a calamitous mistake will most likely be what decides the match. Real Madrid have the more talented side, and when taking into consideration the squads, key players, recent form, and motivation, the signs point to a narrow Real Madrid victory.  It wouldn’t surprise me to see this game go to extra time, so instead of playing the more favorable odds for a Real Madrid win in regulation, the picks for the match are Real Madrid to win the UEFA Champions League at -200 (risking $200 to win $100) and a regulation score of 1-1 at +570 (risking $100 to win $570).  As always, bet responsibly.

Prediction: 2–1 Real Madrid after extra time.

Despite being a popular pick for relegation since their promotion two years ago, Norwich City have found themselves not only entering their third consecutive season in the Premier League, but the club is in a position to make a run at a Europa League bid.

Like every club, they can qualify for a European adventure if they win a domestic cup, but a trip to Old Trafford or Stamford Bridge can quickly put an end to a dream of silverware. The other potential route for qualification is a seventh place finish, a feat that Norwich are now capable of achieving. Seventh does not guarantee a spot in Europe, but if clubs in the top six also reach the FA Cup final and win the League Cup, it allows club number seven entry into the Europa League.

The 2012/13 Canaries campaign included a ten game unbeaten streak that was immediately followed by a run of sixteen matches with just one victory. Norwich managed to defeat the likes of Arsenal and both Manchester clubs, but to finish in the seventh position next season, they will need to find a way to get results even when they aren’t playing at their best. Fortunately for Norwich supporters, the club has been active in the transfer market, adding players that should provide more consistency throughout the season.

The most significant of these acquisitions is Ricky van Wolfswinkel, the 24 year old Dutch forward who was acquired for a club record £8.5 million from Sporting Lisbon. “The Wolf” scored an impressive 45 goals in 87 matches for the Portuguese side over the past two seasons, and will bolster a Norwich strike force that failed to produce a double figure goal scorer in 2012/13. The Canaries have also added Nathan Redmond, Martin Olsson, and Leroy Fer, three young players that should make an immediate impact on the pitch.

While Norwich’s summer signing spree has shown that they are prepared to challenge in the top half of the table, their reluctance to sell keeper John Ruddy to Chelsea shows the ambition that is present at Carrow Road. Whether Ruddy wants to go to the Blues is irrelevant; if Norwich do not get their rumored £10 million asking price, then he will not be sold.

The Canaries face stiff competition from Swansea, Everton, and a slew of other clubs who fancy their chances at a top seven finish, but manager Chris Hughton now has the weapons needed for achieving the club’s second ever qualification for Europe. The Norwich front office has done their part in giving Norwich a chance, the question is now whether Hughton and his players can deliver.

In the wake of that monumental away goal at the San Siro two years ago in the Champions League Round of 16, it seemed that Tottenham Hotspur were on the verge of breaking into the big time. Outlasting bitter rivals Arsenal in the world’s greatest club competition, the tide finally appeared to be turning in the battle for North London. With a double digit points lead late into the following season, Spurs’ fans were dreaming about a title challenge, all too eager to shout “Mind the Gap” from the rooftops as the two clubs looked to be heading in opposite directions. Then, as if doused in ice water, Tottenham fans awoke to find that this dream was just that. After a massive collapse coupled with an Arsenal surge (topped off by West Bromwich Albion’s Martin Furlop’s instructional video on “How not to be a Professional Goalkeeper” on the final day of the season), Spurs once again found themselves relegated to Thursday’s on ITV4.

This year, Spurs had a season that would be celebrated by most clubs, but despite new manager Andre Villas-Boas helping the club achieve their highest point total in Premier League history, they still found themselves on the wrong side of the top four. Tottenham have signed quality players and brought in one of the most promising young managers in world football, yet have still been unable to break back into the Champions League. The problem is no secret to Tottenham supporters; the inability to replace Dimitar Berbatov, who signed for Manchester United in the Summer of 2008, with another world class forward.

Spurs are a fish too big for a lake, but too small for the ocean. When they signed a striker like Louis Saha, fans are disappointed that he isn’t of the required skill for Champions League qualification, but when they are linked with a player like Roberto Soldado, Chairman Daniel Levy is slammed for chasing unrealistic targets. Fabiano, Vucinic, Llorente, and most recently David Villa have all spurned Spurs, and this inability to lure a top quality striker to White Hart Lane has been holding them back as a real threat to achieve a top finish in the league.

The club’s current crop of strikers are not bad footballers, and would be the envy of many clubs in the England. Everton would love to have a player like Jermain Defoe, and the signing of Emmanuel Adebayor would be a monumental day in the history of West Ham United. However, would either start a meaningful game at Arsenal or Liverpool? Would Tottenham fans take either of those players over Luis Suarez or Lucas Podolski? While Defoe and Adebayor have their moments of brilliance, they are far too inconsistent to start on a club that has top four ambition. Defoe is best used as a super-sub like Chicharito at Manchester United, and for every world class performance given by Adebayor (late last season at Chelsea), he will have five that make Spurs look like they are playing with ten men.

In order to get a striker that can propel Tottenham into the upper echelon of not just English but European football, they are going to need to take a chance on a young player with massive upside. A few years ago that would have been Andy Carroll, which turned out to be a disastrous move for Liverpool. In the present however, the man of the hour is Aston Villa’s Christian Benteke. After banging in 19 goals for one of the league’s worst teams as a 22 year old, Spurs may have to splash the cash if they want a potential 30 goal scorer of the future. Villa have no obligation to sell, but with Benteke putting in a formal transfer request, Spurs may be able to lure the Belgian to London. Spurs are not a club that have the financial resources to buy an already established player in their prime like Fernando Torres or Robin van Persie, but if they gamble on a young player, it could be the difference between more Thursdays in Switzerland on ITV4, and the Champions League Anthem once again being played at White Hart Lane.