Barcelona are playing a new and exciting style of attacking soccer, and the Catalan side’s 34 goals, a total that leads La Liga, actually understates the team’s quality. By expected goals, a statistical estimate of the quality of chances created, Barcelona should have scored about 39 goals this season – only occasional struggles with finishing have kept Barcelona from running away with La Liga’s title. If they keep creating chances at this rate, even more goals will come.

But the better story lies beneath the goal-scoring totals. That Barcelona score goals is not new, but the style and strategy of their attacking play mark a break with the club’s recent history. This team no longer just sets up shop into the opposition final third and probes carefully for breaking points in opposition defenses. Head coach Luis Enrique has worked out new tactics in which established, deep possession is just one tool that Barcelona use to unlock defenses – a tool that is no longer the first out of the box.

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This change can be shown statistically. The following graphic shows the number of shots per match that Barcelona have created from established possession in the final 40 yards, defined as a possession move including at least five consecutive completed passes in the final 40.

Barcelona once created more chances like this than anyone else in the world. Under Pep Guardiola in 2010-2011, the club’s 140 shots from established final 40 possession not only led La Liga, but second place Real Madrid (64) and third place Villarreal (57) created less than half as many chances from this type of play. This season Real Madrid, Celta Vigo and Atletico Madrid have all created more shots from established possession than Barcelona.

But of course, this hardly means that Barcelona’s attack has sputtered. Both the numbers and the quality of play have remained excellent. The difference has been a change in focus from the midfield to the forward line. Guardiola’s Barcelona were fundamentally the club of Xavi, who dominated play in possession, passing with his fellow midfielders in intricate combinations. The new Barcelona is defined by its forward trio, and  Luis Enrique has transformed his attacking tactics to get the ball to Neymar, Lionel Messi and Luis Suarez more quickly and more effectively.

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This can be seen most clearly in Barcelona’s “danger zone passing” statistics. The danger zone is the region in the center of the 18-yard box from which most goals are scored. One of the keys to Barcelona’s forward play is that when Neymar receives the ball in areas from which most forwards would shoot, he typically looks to play one more pass to a teammate in an even better position. Completed passes within the danger zone have been shown to significantly improve chance quality. Defenders need to commit to defend Neymar, and the pass then eliminates those who had moved to cover the ball.

This season, Barcelona forwards have completed 31 passes to one another in or near the danger zone. In the first 14 matches of the 2010-2011, for instance, the Barcelona forward line (typically Messi, David Villa and either Pedro or Bojan) combined for only 17 danger zone passes.

The creative core of the Barcelona attack has moved up the pitch, from central midfield to the forward line. This is the trend that began last season, as Enrique looked for find ways to best leverage the incredible attacking talent at his disposal. Last year, Barcelona’s rate of danger zone passing among the forwards increased hugely. In the new season, Barcelona have solidified these gains while continuing to move away from the club’s former midfield possession style.

The following graphic compares Barcelona’s two modes of play. This shows the percentage of shots created following a completed pass in the final 40 between two central midfielders compared to shots created following a danger zone pass between two forwards.

This transformation has been quietly in the works for a while. Under both Tito Vilanova and Tata Martino in the 12-13 and 13-14 seasons, Barcelona slowly lessened their dependence on Xavi and the central midfield. Now after winning a treble, it appears that the club has fully committed to this change. The new Luis Enrique Barcelona move the ball quickly through midfield and place the creative burden on the forwards. This increasingly vertical style of play has kept Barcelona’s attack among the best in the world, and it has brought out the best in the already brilliant trio of Neymar, Messi and Suarez.

Neymar in particular has flourished with more time on the ball. He leads La Liga in shots assisted (51) and expected goals assisted (8.8). No one else has been nearly as productive in creating chances.

With their focus on getting the ball to Neymar and allowing him to create, Barcelona’s tactics have enabled the Brazilian to take the next step in his development. The new-look attack is not only producing chances and excitement in equal measure, but the transformed system has also helped make a new world superstar in Neymar.

Luis Enrique deserves credit for doing much more than simply taking care of a club with great players. He has overhauled the club’s approach and helped unlock the wondrous talents of the game’s newest superstar.

All data provided by Opta.

More Caley analysis:

• Arsenal is for real, and the numbers say they’re City’s main competition.
• Expect Juventus to rebound, just don’t expect a scudetto.

It has been years since Arsenal contended for the English Premier League title. This year could be different. Unlike other seasons when the Gunners took early leads only to see them disappear as the second half rolled on, it is not clear which other sides can overtake them. Certainly Manchester City have the quality, but Manchester United are still licking their wounds after a 3-0 thrashing from the Gunners, and Chelsea remain stuck in 15^th place, as well as possibly an alternate universe where none of their players are any good anymore. With just one serious contender to beat, the door is open.

On top of that, Arsenal have been playing truly excellent soccer. The top line numbers of 22 points from 10 matches and a plus-10 goal difference are good, but the underlying numbers are better still. Arsenal have scored on only 16 of their 200 shots (their other two goals have been own goals), a conversion rate of eight percent, where usually Arsene Wenger’s sides produce conversion rates in the 10 to 12 percent range.

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Indeed, by expected goals, a statistical measure of the quality of chances produced and conceded, Arsenal have created chances which would typically lead to about 24 goals, and over time it is typically the case that teams start finishing their chances at the expected rates. The Gunners are top of the table, and they could easily get better as they improve their chance conversion.

The following graphic displays Arsenal’s chances created and conceded this season, with larger squares representing higher “expected goals” values. Pinks boxes are goals.

This expected goals difference of plus-15 is best in the league, with only Manchester City running close at about plus-14. This means that Arsenal have been on average 1-2 goals better per match than their opponents. This is an extreme number. In the top European leagues, only Real Madrid, Barcelona, Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund have superior expected goals difference per match.

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Over the last five seasons, there have been 28 clubs in the big four European leagues which started the season with an expected goals difference better than plus-10 over their first ten matches. Of these 28, exactly half (14) won their leagues. Another 10 only failed to win the league because another club who also had an early xGD of better than plus-10 finished above them. It’s a good list to be on.

There are a couple cautionary tales here. Chelsea and Arsenal kicked off the season hot in 2010-2011 and were in first and second on Halloween, but were overtaken by a Manchester United side that had started the season a more disappointing 5-5-0. Arsenal slipped all the way to fourth. Last season, Napoli never realized the promise of their great early statistical record and struggled to a fifth-place finish in Serie A.

It is certainly possible that this Arsenal side could fall apart as well. But those are just two clubs among a long list of successes. With strong early results and a superior statistical record, overall the Gunners have an enviable set of historical comparands.

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So, how are they doing it? And will the injuries to Theo Walcott and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain derail a promising season? To the second point, it does not appear that Walcott has been the difference-maker. Arsenal have converted more of their chances with Walcott on the pitch, but the underlying chance creation statistics are very similar between Walcott and Giroud. The players to watch, rather, are Alexis Sánchez, Mesut Özil and Francis Coquelin.

In attack, otherworldly play by Sánchez has been Arsenal’s primary strength. Not only has the Chilean forward scored six goals in 777 minutes, but his underlying statistics suggest he could do even better. Based on his shot attempts and assists, Sánchez has about eight expected goals and two expected assists. These numbers have no equal in the EPL this year.

This graphic also makes clear the primary axis of the Arsenal attack. Sánchez leads the league by a wide margin in expected goals, meaning that he is doing better than anyone else at getting himself free in dangerous spaces where he can threaten the opposition goal. And Mesut Özil with about six expected assists is likewise the class of the league in assisting shots in dangerous locations. The Arsenal attack should continue to run just fine with Olivier Giroud up top — note also his strong shot contribution — as long as Özil and Sánchez are clicking.

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On the defensive side, it is Francis Coquelin who makes Wenger’s tactics work. The French defensive midfielder is a reactive player, at his best seeing danger and moving quickly and precisely to stamp it out. This leads to some peculiarities in Arsenal’s statistics. Most of the best sides in the English Premier League concede about 10-15 completed passes per match into the “defensive midfield” zone, the area about 30 yards wide and 20 yards deep extending back from the top of the eighteen-yard-box. Arsenal have allowed about 18 passes per match into this area. It is notable that Coquelin’s job does not seem to be to prevent such passes being played.

Rather, once opposition teams get into the defensive midfield zone, they can’t get out. Either they are pushed backward or they lose possession. This map of Coquelin’s tackles shows how often he breaks up play in this zone.

Obviously tackles make up a small percentage of defensive stops. Most of the time it means forcing a bad pass or pushing the opposition team backward out of the attacking zone. But Coquelin’s action map shows where he is most effective. Arsenal’s opponents may get into that defensive midfield zone about 18 times per match, but they only manage to complete a progressive pass out of this are three or four times per match, which is the lowest total allowed in the EPL. So Arsenal’s defense concedes possession in a relatively dangerous area but counts on Coquelin, assisted by the center backs and fellow midfielder Santi Cazorla, to prevent any progression from there.

These tactics, with a dynamic attack driven by Sánchez and Özil, backed up by a bend-but-don’t-break defensive midfield, have propelled Arsenal to the top of the table. The underlying statistics suggest this has not been a patch of luck but rather a deserved run driven by excellent chance creation. While Manchester City may still be favorites, the Gunners are right in the thick of the Premier League title race.

Last season, Juventus were in the UEFA Champions League final. They won Serie A. Now the same Juventus are mired in 15th place in Italy with just five points from six matches. What’s gone wrong? Can the Old Lady recover?

Statistical indicators suggest Juventus are playing better than their results. While Max Allegri’s side have won only a single league match, they have consistently created better scoring opportunities than their opposition. Juventus have attempted nearly double the number of shots as their opponents (119 to 59), and importantly, they’ve attempted far more shots from dangerous positions, near to goal.

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To measure a club’s scoring chances created, I use the statistic “expected goals,” which estimates the quality of shooting chances based on location on the pitch, the type of assist pass, the kind of attack leading to the shot, as well as a variety of other factors. A shot from six yards out, assisted by a through-ball following a counterattack, has a much higher “expected goals” value than a shot from 25 yards following some unremarkable possession play.

In the following graphic, Juventus’ shots are marked in white, their opponents’ in blue. The size of the marker represents the estimated expected goals value of the chance. Goals are pink.

(Three of Juventus’ six goals came from either a penalty or an own goal and are not displayed on the map.)

That array of big white squares shows good scoring chances that Juventus have spurned. Paul Pogba has attempted 23 shots, including three characterized as “big chances” which he should have been expected to finish, yet Pogba has just one goal so far.

Last year, from 54 shots and six big chances, Pogba scored eight times. He is an unquestionably skilled finisher, but along with the rest of his Juve teammates, the French midfielder is struggling to convert chances.

Historically, these slumps rarely last. In my database, I looked for teams similar to Juventus who had good expected goals numbers early but lacked the results to match. Pogba and his teammates have created chances estimated at about 10 expected goals while conceding only four expected goals in scoring chances to their opponents. Despite this, Juventus’ goal difference is minus-one, a difference between xG and GD of about seven goals.

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I found 12 clubs who had similarly good underlying numbers but a gap between real and expected goals of at least five. Those teams historically bounced back strongly from their slow starts. Of the 12, 10 clubs finished in a higher league position than they were in at the six-week point; only one finished lower.

On average, these clubs made up six places in the table. Though they averaged slightly negative goal difference in their first six matches, just like Juventus, they averaged a plus-17 goal difference over the remainder of their league matches.

This graphic shows the points per match these clubs took in their first six matches, during the early finishing slump, compared to how they performed over the rest of the season.

This group includes some of the great comeback stories of the last five years. Udinese marched from 20th at the end of Sept. 2010 to finish fourth in Serie A. Arsenal roared back to third place and another Champions League berth after a slow start to their 2011 Premier League campaign. Everton and Marseille both went from 20th to the top half of their leagues, while Paris Saint-Germain and AC Milan won their league titles going away after facing some early competition.

If you want to find a team that could turn around a slow start and dramatically wipe out an early deficit, look for a team underperforming their expected goals. The method is not perfect — Almeria in 2010-2011 were relegated, and perhaps nothing could save Milan from themselves in 2013-2014 — but overall, the indicators look very good for Juventus.

There is one important note of caution, though. The only two league champions here were not as far back as Juventus is now. Milan and PSG were both in the top four despite their slow starts, so they did not have nearly as high a hill to climb. Real Madrid won nearly all their remaining matches, but it was not enough to seriously challenge for the La Liga title after a sixth place start.

Juventus in comparison have dropped all the way to 15th. The evidence of clubs with similar problems in past seasons portends good results around the corner, but to win the league title after such a slow start may already be too much to ask.

All data provided by Opta.