Only one Portuguese player from a major European league has managed more goals than Bebé in the past season: his name is Cristiano Ronaldo. Paulo Bento’s reluctance to include the Manchester United loanee in his World Cup squad has been brought to light thanks to the dismal showings of his striking options and a swift exit at the group stage. Bebé is coming off a career season at Pacos de Ferreira, the vital contributor to his club’s survival in the Primeira Liga. These feats did not go unnoticed in the Portuguese media, earning the 23-year-old a spot in numerous ‘team of the season’ polls. That Paulo Bento did not even include him in the provisional 30-man squad is baffling indeed.

Here we examine Bebé’s credentials against forwards involved in Portugal’s disappointing World Cup campaign:

Bebé
Age: 23
2013/14 goal tally: 13 (11 in Primeira Liga)
Club: Pacos de Ferreira (on loan from Manchester United)

Bebé’s thirteen league goals assured survival for a club which, for much of the season, looked destined for the Portuguese second division. His strike rate is even more impressive when you consider that Pacos de Ferreira only managed 28 league goals the entire season. This included a run of six goals in six games during March, and a crucial goal against Desportivo das Aves in a high-stakes relegation playoff. Though employed mostly as a winger last season, Bebé’s 6’3″ frame also makes him a plausible choice as a target man in the Portuguese squad.

Verdict: Young, on-form and versatile, Bebé’s inclusion in the squad should have been a no-brainer. In fact, one can almost make a case for him as the starting center forward, or out wide in place of Nani. Expect him to play a big role for Portugal in Euro 2016 and the 2018 World Cup.

Éder
Age: 26
2013/14 goal tally: 4 (3 in the Primeira Liga)
Club: Braga

A ligament injury ended Éder’s club season in March, but three goals remains a very low return for the man born in Guinea-Bassau. As the chart below displays, Bebé managed twice as many goals as Éder on a per-minute basis, despite Braga being a much stronger team than Pacos de Ferreira.

Verdict: Playing in the same league as Bebé, Éder offered the most direct comparison. A dismal goal scoring record, coupled with lingering doubts about his fitness made his inclusion in the squad questionable at best.

Hélder Postiga
Age: 31
2013/14 goal tally: 3 (3 in La Liga)
Club: Valencia, Lazio

Postiga failed to stamp down his place at Valencia after a £2.6 million move last summer. The former Spurs player managed three goals in 15 league games before being loaned to Lazio in January. He made only 5 appearances in the Serie A, with no goals to his name.

Verdict: Taken off with an injury within 16 minutes against the United States summed up Bento’s decision to call up the veteran. Highly experienced, but the goals and match sharpness were simply not there anymore.

Hugo Almeida
Age: 30
2013/14 goal tally: 15 (13 in the Super Lig)
Club: Besiktas

With many still doubtful about his role as Portugal’s first choice forward, Almeida was largely ineffectual against Germany until an injury saw his tournament within 27 minutes. With a goal tally is similar to Bebé’s, Almeida remained a considerable better choice than Éder or Postiga.

Verdict: His experience and ability to play the No.9 role justified his inclusion, if only because the lack of centre forward options for Portugal.

Nani
Age: 27
2013/14 goal tally: 1 (0 in Premier League)
Club: Manchester United

Eleven league appearances all season, only seven starts. Last season was an underwhelming one for Nani, even for a player whose career has been defined by unfulfilled expectations. Still capable of changing a game (and scoring), as showed by his goal against the United States.

Verdict: That Nani has a starting berth with Bebé not even in the squad made it all the more puzzling, given their similar roles on the pitch. Nani was always going to have a place in this team, although Portugal might be better off using him as an impact player off the bench. At least he’s a better option than Quaresma.

Ivan Cavaleiro
Age: 20
2013/14 goal tally: 1 (0 in Primeira Liga)
Club: Benfica

Cavaleiro was included in the Paulo Bento’s provisional squad. With only one goal in 19 appearances for Benfica last season, Cavaleiro’s youth is arguably the only reason for his involvement.

Verdict: Rightly trimmed from the final 23-man squad, some might question Bento’s decision to involve the youngster who was never going to be selected anyway. Bebé is only three years older and would’ve had a realistic chance of making it to Brazil. 

At the start of next season, two of the biggest powerhouses in Europe will be missing from continental soccer altogether. Manchester United and AC Milan tried to qualify for the UEFA Europa League, but both fell short in the final matches of their respective league campaigns.

In numerous sports, wild cards can be awarded to players/teams failing to qualify through normal means, usually at the discretion of the governing body. It is definitely in UEFA’s interests to ensure as many ‘big clubs’ as possible are competing in a competition that rarely garners the attention it deserves.

Currently, UEFA grants the top three associations of the UEFA Respect Fair Play ranking an additional berth each. The system is inherently flawed, as the ‘fairest’ teams are not always rewarded. For example, Fulham was only fourth in the fair play table when they gained entry in 2011-12, as the three teams above them have already qualified for European competition.

A ‘fair’ club would also be overlooked if the league they play in is not among the ‘fairest’ in Europe. It’s no surprise that teams that have qualified through this path have rarely been competitive in the Europa League.

Giving cup winners (or runners up) a spot in Europe is a good way of rewarding a cup run, but this comes at the expense of teams finishing well in the league – depending on the cup winners, teams finishing 6th in Europe’s top leagues can still miss out on the Europa League. If UEFA can award the three Fair Play berths to clubs with deserving positions in the league table instead, it would certainly add to the quality of the tournament.

Wouldn’t this be unfair to those already qualified for the competition through conventional means? Not exactly – wild card teams should start their campaign from the first qualifying round, just like those currently qualifying through the Fair Play rankings. In this way, the wild cards would have to go through 23 matches in order to lift the trophy – no one could accuse a team of being undeserving after managing that.

If Manchester United were to gain a berth in the first qualifying round of next season’s Europa League (see suggested wild card entrants below), that would generate considerable buzz for the competition before the quarter finals of the 2014 World Cup have even started. Even if Manchester United are to be eliminated in the Round of 16 just like two seasons ago, that would still represent nine extra home games for the season.

It is not hard to conceive an average attendance reaching about 65,000, which would represent a hefty amount of revenue even for a club of this stature. ITV, on the other hand, would be more than happy to have 18 live games involving what remains the most-watched soccer club in Britain.

Nevertheless, there are potential embarrassments for UEFA if a club offered a wild card berth refuses to enter the Europa League. Therefore, wild cards should only be awarded to clubs that have applied for a place. Those are clubs with the willingness and squad depth to go through the extra midweek games. UEFA can then cherry pick teams based on their league position, ‘big name’ factors and so on. This would be immensely beneficial to the Europa League, the clubs and the broadcasters. It is just a surprise that UEFA has not already gone with it.

How would Tottenham, Lazio and Olympique Lyonnais fare? 

Group I

Lyon and Real Betis are heavy favourites to qualify from Group I. Top spot in the group can really go either way – Lyon’s depth and experience in Europe gives them a slight edge, but Real Betis will want to do well in their first foray into Europe since the 2005/06 Champions League. Real Betis’ enthusiasm could see them winning the group, but Lyon would be expected to go further in the tournament should they both qualify. Portuguese Cup holders Vitória S.C. should finish comfortably ahead of Croatia’s Rijeka in third.

Prediction: Real Betis (winners), Lyon (runner up)

Group J

Lazio did well last season in the Europa League, winning their group and making it to the quarter finals. Expect no different this season from the reigning Coppa Italia champions, who should be favourites to win not only Group J but also the coveted trophy. The race for second is wide open – both Legia Warsaw and Trabzonspor should be quietly confident of their chances. Legia Warsaw was desperately unlucky to miss out on a place in the Champions League group stage after losing to Steaue Bucharest on away goals. Trabzonspor has the more experienced squad, with the likes of Jose Bosingwa, Florent Malouda and Didier Zokora among their ranks. Cypriot side Apollon Limassol has an outside chance should they both slip up.

Prediction: Lazio (winners), Trabzonspor (runner up)

Group K

The top two clubs are all but certain in this group. Tottenham’s improved depth, coupled with Anzhi’s fire sale makes the London side favourites to win Group K. Andrea Villas-Boas certainly had this competition in mind during the summer transfer window – Christian Eriksen, Nacer Chadli and Vlad Chiriches all played in last season’s Europa League, while Roberto Soldado, Etienne Capoue and Erik Lamela have also featured at numerous points in previous seasons. The battle for third between Tromso and Sheriff should be interesting. Actually, maybe not.

Prediction: Tottenham (winners), Anzhi Makhachkala (runner up)

Group L

The last group is perhaps the tightest of them all. AZ Alkmaar is undoubtedly the strongest side in the group, and managed to reach the quarter-final in 2011-2012. PAOK has a slight edge over Maccabi Haifa, and has the quality to even challenge for top spot. That being said, I wouldn’t be surprised if any one of AZ Alkmaar, PAOK and Maccabi Haifa fails to qualify for the knockout stage. Shakter Karagandy might also cause a few upsets along the way.

Prediction: AZ Alkmaar (winners), PAOK (runner up)

How would Fiorentina, Sevilla and Bordeaux fare?

Group E

Fiorentina are favorites to win the group, but it is never going to be easy. They were unlucky not to finish ahead of Milan in the league, and Italian sides rarely pay much attention to the Europa League. Last season, Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk won a strong group featuring S.S. Napoli and PSV Eindhoven with ease. The key man would be two-time Ukrainian footballer of the year Yevhen Konoplyanka, who tormented England’s Kyle Walker on Tuesday. Paços de Ferreira surprised everyone by finishing third in the Primeira Liga last season, but it would be a minor miracle if the Portuguese side survives this group, after opening their domestic season with 3 consecutive defeats. Nevertheless, with the firepower provided by Manchester United loanee Bébé they should finish ahead of Romanian minnows Pandurii.

Prediction: Dnipro (winners), Fiorentina (runner up)

Group F

This is a group where all four teams can conceivably make it to the knockout stages. The smart money is on Eintracht Frankfurt and Bordeaux, and both sides have the quality to grab top spot. APOEL Nicosia should count themselves lucky to still be in Europe. The Cypriot champions were eliminated not once but twice during qualification – first by Maribor on away goals in the 3rd round of Champions League Qualification then Zulte-Waregem in the Europa League Play-off Round. APOEL managed to become the first name drawn among the losing play-off teams to replace Fenerbahce, which adds to the mystique of a competition often criticized for including Champions League drop-offs. Maccabi Haifa ended their ten-year wait for a league championship last season and could cause a few surprise.

Prediction: Frankfurt (winners), Bordeaux (runner up)

Group G

With squad boasting big names such as Miguel Veloso, Younes Belhanda and and Andriy Yarmolenko, Dynamo Kiev are firm favourites to win Group G. Last season, KRC Genk topped their group (featuring eventual semi-finalist Basel) undefeated and are odds on to qualify again in a relatively weak group. Rapid Vienna are capable of causing Genk a few problems, but the same cannot be said of Swiss side FC Thun.

Prediction: Dynamo Kiev (winners), Genk (runner up)

Group H

Sevilla looks to relive their glory days in this competition, starting with a favorable group which they should win. Their underwhelming record in recent Europa League campaigns should provide hope for German side Freiburg, who should at least finish second. Estoril and Slovan Liberec will slug it out for third place.

Prediction: Sevilla (winners), Freiburg (runner up)

The Group Stage of the 2013-14 Europa League kicks off on Thursday with several major clubs participating. As part of our three part series leading up to the Europa League matches, here’s a preview of Groups A through D.

How would the likes of Valencia, Swansea and Wigan fare?

Group A

Group A is tight at the top – Valencia, Swansea and Kuban all have realistic chances of winning the group. Valencia’s good record in recent campaigns means they are almost certain to qualify for the knockout stages. Swansea manager Michael Laudrup has vowed to take the competition seriously, and with the stronger squad, they should be able to see off Kuban Krasnodar, who are also making their first foray into the Europa League. Swiss side St Gallen should offer little threat.

Prediction: Valencia (group winner), Swansea (runner up)

Group B

Dutch powerhouse PSV Eindhoven should ease to qualification in this group. The key battle would be between Croatian champions Dinamo Zagreb and Ukrainian side Chornomorets Odesa, with both sides looking evenly matched. Bulgarian side Ludogorets should be content with a third place finish.

Prediction: PSV (group winner), Dinamo Zagreb (runner up)

Group C

Despite a couple of underwhelming seasons in the Jupiler League and the sale of several key players, Standard Liege’s European experience should see them through in a relatively weak group. Qualification should also be straightforward for Austrian runners-up Red Bull Salzburg. Scandinavian sides Esbjerg and Elfsborg have little separating them, both in club name and squad quality.

Prediction: Standard Liege (group winner), FC Salzburg (runner up)

Group D

Rubin Kazan should have no problem dominating Group D. Second-place is up for grabs, with Belgium’s Zulte-Waregem most likely to go through. Slovenian champions NK Maribor lack the quality to mount a serious challenge. The same could be said of Wigan Athletic, and it’s a shame that the FA Cup champions would probably choose to concentrate on life in the Championship. European football is not easy to come by, more so when you’re Wigan.

Prediction: Rubin Kazan (group winners), Zulte-Waregem (runner up).

Editor’s note: For viewers in the United States, many of the Europa League matches will be shown live on US television and Internet. Check our TV schedule page. Plus, stay tuned to World Soccer Talk for more details on the other games.