Typically, the approach to predicting the Premier League’s relegation candidates in pre-season goes like this: One, include the three newly promoted sides. Two, nclude three other teams that were just above the drop the previous season. And three, choose your least favorite mid-table team and assume they will have a bad year
And that approach works more often than not. However, for this analysis we’ll compare the simodds.com results now that gameweek 11 of the Premier League has concluded.
First, here were the pre-season simulation favorites for relegation
|Team||Odds of relegation|
The first thing to notice is that more than half the league had a non zero chance of relegation. Granted, Stoke, Swansea City, and Southampton were all predicted to be more likely to finish in top seven than be relegated but the chance was there.
What about the three promoted teams? QPR and Burnley are, as expected, two of the three most likely teams to be relegated. However, Leicester City is ahead of Sunderland and only ninth most likely to be relegated. They are an interesting case and will be examined in more detail later on.
What about the three teams closest to relegation last season? West Brom, Hull City, and Aston Villa are also close to the bottom, with Hull City clearly in the bottom three with a 56% chance of relegation.
Now that 29% of the Premier League season has been completed, how do things stand?
|Team||Odds of relegation|
Sorry, the Tottenham line is just a bad joke to see if anyone is still paying attention!
Let’s go through each team one by one.
Burnley – Determining the strength of a promoted side is difficult for two reasons. First, promoted teams often have significant additions of personnel during the summer. Second, and more importantly, the ELO ratings need to be adjusted because teams in the Championship do not play teams in the Premier League. Well, they do in the cup competitions but clubelo.com does not use cup matches as part of the ELO calculations. Since we know the first place team in the Championship will, on average, be in the bottom third of the Premier League, adjustments to the ELO rating clearly need to be made. However, until the teams are actually participating in the Premier League, there is a bit of guess work involved. For Burnley, the pre-season rating of 1563 looks to have been too high, with too much emphasis on their superb season in the Championship last year. Their rating has declined to 1518 (with a bump this last week due to their first win of the season, over Hull). With only seven points, their odds of relegation are now almost three in four.