Diego Simeone predicted this season that rather than retain the title, Atletico Madrid would spend the year competing with Valencia and Sevilla for a UEFA Champions League place. And after the champions lost to then managerless Real Sociedad, it seems Cholo’s forecast is coming true.

Atletico are fourth in La Liga, four points adrift of Real Madrid and two behind Barcelona – not a chasm by any means. But Spanish publication AS this week revealed Atletico are seven points down on this time last season, with 23 points compared to 2013-14’s 30. That’s seven points they have to make up between now and May while hoping Madrid and Barca implode.

Simeone has proven to be a master-motivator in his time at Vicente Calderon but even the best psychologists need the right tools with which to work. Los Rojiblancos were gutted over the summer in two key positions – goalkeeper and centre-forward – and while they found decent replacements, the departing players were among the best in the world in their positions. Indeed, Diego Costa has twice as many goals and more than double the EuroFantasyLeague points of Mario Mandzukic.

A Champions League place is without doubt possible for Atletico. They’re fourth in the table, level on points with fifth-place Sevilla, and come the end of the season it would be a major surprise to see Unai Emery’s side pip the capital team to a top four place. But considering how Atletico stormed to the title last year, targeting merely the top four feels like Simeone selling his men short.

It’s entirely possible that by predicting Atletico wouldn’t be a factor in the title race, the Argentine was trying to ease the expectation on the defending champions. Atletico were the underdogs last year and their triumph was a Cinderella story. The reality is different now and rather than quietly willing Atletico on, questions are being asked about their capacity to make it two in a row.

By dismissing the chances of retaining the title early in the campaign, Simeone answered the inquisition before it really started. But his stance also runs the risk of becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. Atletico are told by their leader that they can’t win the league again and come to believe it, their performances dropping from those of title-winners. Rather than building the team up, Simeone did them down.

His reaction to the defeat at Real Sociedad – saying ‘it’s a good time to lose as Valencia and Sevilla drew’ – was another example. Maybe he doesn’t really believe it, and is giving his new players time to settle in ahead of a New Year charge. By then it could be too late. Real Madrid are threatening to run away with the league and Atletico are barely in touch.

It is only a second league defeat of the season so there’s no need to sound the alarm yet but if Atletico’s year peters out into a top four spot after last term’s thrills, it may be that the seeds were sown way back in August.

Prove yourself as an outstanding football manager by building a unique European fantasy football team for free & challenging your friends at Eurofantasyleague.com.