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Top 10 Nations Most Likely To Win The World Cup After End Of Round One Games

Now that the first round of games in the 2014 FIFA World Cup have concluded, here are the top 10 teams most-likely to win the World Cup. Note that the top 10 list doesn’t factor in the first match of the second round of games that was played today between Brazil and Mexico.

1. Brazil — 54% (unchanged)

2. Argentina — 15% (Argentina are the biggest beneficiary of Spain getting beat 5-1 by Netherlands, increasing their chances of winning from 10% to 15%)

3. Germany — 8.8% (increased from 4.5% after defeating Portugal)

4. Netherlands — 5.5% (an increase from 1.2%)

5. Spain — 5.1% (a huge drop from the 21% odds at the beginning of the tournament)

6. Colombia — 3.3% (increased from 1.6%; They now have a 94% chance of making it out of their group)

7. France — 1.9% (increase from 1.2%)

8. Chile — 1.5% (increase from 1.0% at beginning of World Cup)

9. Mexico — 0.7% (increase from 0.2%)

10. USA — 0.6% (increase from 0.2%).

Read Chris’s simulations of who will advance past the group stage, as well as who will advance through the knockout stages to win the World Cup.

SEE MORE — Everything you need to know about the World Cup.

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7 Comments

7 Comments

  1. antony

    June 21, 2014 at 5:12 pm

    argentina only team is now in top and performance brazil is loss everything even their performance they likely play as la la liga roup match they are very very bad upto their performance i think only argentina will win WC 2014

  2. Jai

    June 20, 2014 at 10:39 am

    MY MEXICO WILL WIN FOR SURE/../././././

  3. lovelily sylvia monyake

    June 20, 2014 at 2:31 am

    l see your top ten with your stats, l agree
    with brazil, my second hunch is the netherlands, and argentina and then chile.

  4. Jake

    June 18, 2014 at 8:04 am

    The fact that the US and Mexico are listed ahead of Belgium and Italy is a joke. Both teams are on course to win their Groups.

    • Christopher Harris

      June 18, 2014 at 8:18 am

      You could argue that USMNT’s win against Ghana was more impressive than Mexico’s win against Cameroon.

  5. ivan

    June 18, 2014 at 6:34 am

    How is Italia not on there? They are a better side than 5 of the 10 listed.

  6. lefthog

    June 18, 2014 at 5:33 am

    Mexico has a higher chance than Italy??

    The US have a higher chance than Belgium??

    Really? Check that simulator again.

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