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How Hertha Will Win Their First Bundesliga Title


We are all wondering about the possibility of Hertha providing a surprise winner to one of Europe’s premier leagues. With 10 games to go, it becomes feasible that we can map it out and give a best guess as to the possibility. If we take a look at the fixtures, it is not only possible, but kind of seems better than likely.

First we must make a few assumptions, and as always these can turn out to be false, especially as we assume current form to carry forward. Also we can’t do much about the intangibles like Hamburg and Bayern’s European possibilities, which could drain either team or be done in the next round. And while injuries are part of the game, a blow to Drobny, Ribery or Misomivic changes everything substantially. But that being said, let’s lay out a few things we can assume should continue under present circumstances.

1) Hamburg have the hardest run-in and will have too many draws to make up the four point gap.
2) Wolfsburg will continue to play well on the road.
3) Bayern will struggle at home against teams that take the game to them.
4) Hertha will beat teams that attack and struggle with teams that play a similar style.

Under those circumstances, and considering the run in, Hertha should win with a home draw against Schalke, which is the most likely outcome for two sides that play a grinding game. Wolfsburg should still fall two wins short, while Bayern looks very unlikely to contend and might need to worry about staying in the top three.

Here’s my best guess.

For Hertha
away to Stuttgart (win because they tend to take apart teams that attack)
home to BVB (draw – similar styles)
away to Hannover 96 (win)
home to Werder Bremen (hardest to call but a win)
away to Hoffenheim (draw)
away to Hamburg (loss – road game against a team that won’t allow them to counter)
home to Bochum (win)
away to Cologne (win – but more to do with Cologne’s home form)
home to Schalke (draw – and unwatchable)
away to Karlsruhe (win)

That’s a total of 21 points. The important thing to note is that a team with a four point lead needs to lose 2 and the only two I can see are Hamburg and Werder. And since they are home, I see them winning the Werder game at the moment.

For Bayern
home to Karlsruhe (win)
away to Wolfsburg (loss)
home to Eintracht (win)
away to Arminia (win)
home to Schalke (win)
home to Gladbach (draw)
away to Energie (not again – win)
home to Bayer Leverkusen (loss)
away to Hoffenheim (draw)
home to Stuttgart (draw)

That’s 18 points and I feel I am being kind with the Schalke match, which means that Hamburg or Hoffenheim could pass them. Their terrible defense is going to do them in after a slate of easy games in the next few rounds.

away to Arminia (win)
home to Bayern (win)
away to Gladbach (loss)
home to Bayer (draw)
home to Energie (win)
home to Hoffenheim (win)
away to Stuttgart (loss)
home to BVB (win)
awat to Hannover (win)
home to Werder (draw)

That’s 20 points, which should get them 2nd but their final place seems likely to hinge on the Bayern home tie in a few weeks.

But who is going to be the king maker in all of this? Stuttgart! They play all top four teams in the next 10 weeks. But the biggest intangible is Werder. Their current form means that Hertha and Wolfsburg could be playing for it all on the last day. Both still face Thomas Schaaf’s side, who I think are a good bet for a UEFA Cup spot.

So there you have it. By my calculations, Hertha fans can breathe a sigh of relief.

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  1. Double Pivot

    March 23, 2009 at 12:17 pm

    I didn’t expect egg on my face so soon. Dammit

  2. 4alpha

    March 18, 2009 at 9:47 am

    I also can’t believe that VfL Wolfsburg will beat Bayern. But anyway, I don’t think Hertha will win so much games. Since the 8th matchday, they just won two times away. Next match in Stuttgart will be very hard, due to Stuttgard’s raising form (even if they got beaten 4-0 in Bremen). Draw against Dortmund – okay, that will definetly happen. Three points in Hannover won’t be too easy. They got just beaten one time at home this season, and as they lost all their away matches (except of one), they need to win as much games at home as possible. Even Bayern und Bayer Levekusen lost in Hannover. Hoffenheim & Bremen… maximum 4 points in this two games, more probably just two or less… Hoffenheim’s form decreased since the break at January, but they have lost just one time at home. A draw, possibly. Werder is totally unconstant, in this match everything is possible. Bochum, Cologne and Karlsruhe won’t be easy, too, but that might be possible. Anyway, it will be very difficult for Hertha, and, as every year, Bayern will win the championship.

  3. Double Pivot

    March 18, 2009 at 7:59 am

    I hear where you’re coming from Twinkle. And you could well be right.

    Historically, you would be, but I just have a feeling that UCL and Wolfsburg being a really good team and being home will combine to give them the victory. But we will see. Like I said, I think that is the game to determine 2nd ultimately, so FBM win, then even a poor run late won’t matter.

  4. Twinkle

    March 18, 2009 at 5:56 am

    No way is Wolfsburg going to beat Bayern, even at the volkswagon arena, i just can’t see that happening

  5. Abby

    March 17, 2009 at 9:51 pm

    God, that would just be *weird*.

    But I guess we could keep Voronin that way…

  6. diana

    March 17, 2009 at 12:20 pm

    Abby will like that.

    For me as a Stuttgart supporter, in my perfect little world…my club will have a say on the title race. 🙂 All the more nicer we are playing Bayern Munich on the final matchday of the season. If it goes down to the wire like two seasons ago, I will like to see how Uli Hoeness react if his Bayern are not reclaiming the ‘salad bowl’. 😛

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