We are all wondering about the possibility of Hertha providing a surprise winner to one of Europe’s premier leagues. With 10 games to go, it becomes feasible that we can map it out and give a best guess as to the possibility. If we take a look at the fixtures, it is not only possible, but kind of seems better than likely.
First we must make a few assumptions, and as always these can turn out to be false, especially as we assume current form to carry forward. Also we can’t do much about the intangibles like Hamburg and Bayern’s European possibilities, which could drain either team or be done in the next round. And while injuries are part of the game, a blow to Drobny, Ribery or Misomivic changes everything substantially. But that being said, let’s lay out a few things we can assume should continue under present circumstances.
1) Hamburg have the hardest run-in and will have too many draws to make up the four point gap.
2) Wolfsburg will continue to play well on the road.
3) Bayern will struggle at home against teams that take the game to them.
4) Hertha will beat teams that attack and struggle with teams that play a similar style.
Under those circumstances, and considering the run in, Hertha should win with a home draw against Schalke, which is the most likely outcome for two sides that play a grinding game. Wolfsburg should still fall two wins short, while Bayern looks very unlikely to contend and might need to worry about staying in the top three.
Here’s my best guess.
away to Stuttgart (win because they tend to take apart teams that attack)
home to BVB (draw – similar styles)
away to Hannover 96 (win)
home to Werder Bremen (hardest to call but a win)
away to Hoffenheim (draw)
away to Hamburg (loss – road game against a team that won’t allow them to counter)
home to Bochum (win)
away to Cologne (win – but more to do with Cologne’s home form)
home to Schalke (draw – and unwatchable)
away to Karlsruhe (win)
That’s a total of 21 points. The important thing to note is that a team with a four point lead needs to lose 2 and the only two I can see are Hamburg and Werder. And since they are home, I see them winning the Werder game at the moment.
home to Karlsruhe (win)
away to Wolfsburg (loss)
home to Eintracht (win)
away to Arminia (win)
home to Schalke (win)
home to Gladbach (draw)
away to Energie (not again – win)
home to Bayer Leverkusen (loss)
away to Hoffenheim (draw)
home to Stuttgart (draw)
That’s 18 points and I feel I am being kind with the Schalke match, which means that Hamburg or Hoffenheim could pass them. Their terrible defense is going to do them in after a slate of easy games in the next few rounds.
away to Arminia (win)
home to Bayern (win)
away to Gladbach (loss)
home to Bayer (draw)
home to Energie (win)
home to Hoffenheim (win)
away to Stuttgart (loss)
home to BVB (win)
awat to Hannover (win)
home to Werder (draw)
That’s 20 points, which should get them 2nd but their final place seems likely to hinge on the Bayern home tie in a few weeks.
But who is going to be the king maker in all of this? Stuttgart! They play all top four teams in the next 10 weeks. But the biggest intangible is Werder. Their current form means that Hertha and Wolfsburg could be playing for it all on the last day. Both still face Thomas Schaaf’s side, who I think are a good bet for a UEFA Cup spot.
So there you have it. By my calculations, Hertha fans can breathe a sigh of relief.
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