CONCACAF Champions League: Odds of Success

The CONCACAF Champions League begins Tuesday night with four of the six participating US and Canadian based teams in action.

Here are my favorites for the tournament and what sides from the US & Canada have a realistic shot of advancing deep in the competition.

Favorites:

Santos Laguna (MEX)

Saprissa (CRC)

UNAM Pumas (MEX)

Cruz Azul (MEX)

Alajuelense (CRC)

I believe their is a 85% chance one of the above five teams will win the competition.

Potential Spoilers:

Houston Dynamo (USA)

Olimpia (HON)

CD Municipal (GUA)

Atlante (MEX)

New England Revolution (USA)

The chances of one of the above sides winning the competition is 10%

Could compete but will not win event

DC United (USA)

Marathon (HON)

Jalapa (GUA)

San Francisco (PAN)

Harbour View (JAM)

Montreal Impact (CAN)

The chances of one of the above sides winning the title is 4%

No realistic chance to advance beyond the group stage (if they make it that far)

Puerto Rico Islanders (PUR)

Chivas USA  (USA)

Tauro (PAN)

Joe Public (T&T)

Real Esteli (NGA)

Firpo (SLV)

Metapan (SLV)

Hankook Verdes (BLZ)

The teams on the above list have collectively about a 1% chance of winning the title.

What we have in CONCACAF is an imbalance that you will not find in Europe or South America. We have one world class league in Mexico, one very strong league in Costa Rica, two emerging league in the American first division (MLS) as well as Honduran league and bunch of weak domestic leagues that have at best two decent sides. So in other words it is completely unrealistic to expect any team from outside Mexico or Costa Rica to win this competition in the near future.

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One Response

  1. Brian August 24, 2008

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