Here are previews and projections for the four quarterfinals at Euro 2016 in France.

Poland v. Portugal

Poland didn’t exactly set the world alight in their Round of 16 shootout win over Switzerland, but Portugal and Croatia combined to put it to sleep.

Four games into their Euro 2016 campaign, Fernando Santos’ side still doesn’t have a win in normal time. Their performance against Croatia was startling – some compared it to Greece approaches of the past, but that might be unfair to Greece.

They do have Cristiano Ronaldo and plenty of talent around, but it’s looking more and more like Portugal doesn’t have another gear in this tournament – just as they haven’t since Luiz Felipe Scolari left the setup after Euro 2008.

Poland haven’t hit their highest gear yet either, but their first half performance against the Swiss suggests it exists – as does the fact that the team have progressed this far without a single meaningful contribution from Robert Lewandowski.

This game could be the cagey type, and extra time might be more likely than not. But Poland, if they’re smart, will take the game to Portugal. They were a good attacking side in qualifying, and, if he gets more chances, Lewandowski will get going.

The Pick: Poland

 

Wales v. Belgium

Belgium is, once again, being touted as a tournament favorite after their 4-0 dismantling of Hungary in the Round of 16.

I’m not buying it just yet. Hungary played the Belgians extremely open, a mistake that Chris Coleman and Wales – already familiar with Belgium from qualifying – will be sure not to make.

The Welsh won’t be short on confidence, having won that home qualifying tie and gotten a 0-0 draw on the road, and their 5-3-2 – which will be anchored by Ashley Williams even after his shoulder injury against Northern Ireland – looks a lot like the formation that Italy used to upset Belgium in the group stage.

In any case, Gareth Bale will be a nightmare for a defense that is still starting three center-backs and a single unproven fullback.

If Belgium plays like they did in their second halves against Ireland and Hungary, they’ll walk away with this quarterfinal. But it’s hard to trust Marc Wilmots in big games. Don’t be surprised if Wales end Friday one game away from the European Championship Final.

The Pick: Wales

 

Germany v. Italy

This is a truly impossible game to call. Germany and Italy are the two best teams in this tournament, and there are arguments for both to win this quarterfinal in Bordeaux.

Another big mid-tournament adjustment by Jogi Low – this time the insertion of Mario Gomez into the team as a true #9 – has set the Germans on course for the final. Their performance against Slovakia was of the quality that won the World Cup.

But it’s well worth mentioning that Germany have never beaten Italy at a major tournament, and betting against Antonio Conte right now is a fool’s errand. Not only did Italy dismantle Spain in their last game, they also managed to escape without seeing a single starter suspended for yellow card accumulation.

The question is whether the Azzurri have another almighty effort in them. Fatigue must be a concern for Conte at this point in the tournament, considering that Germany hasn’t yet been made to sweat and Italy doesn’t have a deep squad.

It’s a tossup. Low suggested Italy would be happy to play a scoreless game, but that’s certainly not how they attacked Spain. The two best goalkeepers in the world should be busy.

Thing is, Italy has already played the game of the tournament twice – against Belgium and then Spain – and the old maxim suggests you don’t get three in a row. Germany to break their age-old hex, possibly in more comfortable territory: penalties.

The Pick: Germany

 

France v. Iceland

France finally hit rock bottom. Trailing the Republic of Ireland at halftime on Sunday in Lyon, a contentious and possibly cathartic team-talk and crucial adjustment from Didier Deschamps paved the way for the kind of turnaround England couldn’t conjure the next night as the hosts came from behind to win 2-1.

It feels like a weight has been lifted off French shoulders. Facing ignominy, the team finally looked like its lauded pre-tournament self. More tangibly, that halftime adjustment – inserting Kingsley Coman out wide and playing Antonie Griezmann through the middle – can be carried forward into this quarterfinal.

Suspensions will force Deschamps into further changes for this game, but losing Adil Rami is a blessing in disguise – while with France sure to dominate the ball, a like-for-like replacement for N’Golo Kante isn’t needed.

Iceland played their best game of the tournament in the Round of 16, with Aron Gunnarsson especially impressing in midfield. France will have to be wary of his – and his team’s – threat from long throw-ins.

Iceland is reliable. They’ll show up and provide a stiff test, but they’re hardly unbeatable. Not every team is as bad as England.

The Pick: France