It wasn’t that long ago that Newcastle United was challenging for an UEFA Champions League spot and Alan Pardew was named Premier League Manager of the Season. At the end of the 2011-12 season only a masterful performance by Yaya Toure followed by a 3-1 defeat at Everton kept Newcastle out of Champions League qualification, and into the Europa League instead. Just over two years later, Newcastle look like a side that would struggle in the Championship, with Pardew acknowledging that his job is in serious jeopardy. Monday’s match against Stoke ended with both home and away fans singing, “You’re getting sacked in the morning,”

The 2011-12 side was in contention for Europe all season long. Early in the year, Pardew employed (for most matches) a 4-4-2 with two central midfielders – one defensive (usually Cheick Tiote) and one offensive (usually Yohan Cabaye) – and two wide men (Jonas Gutierrez on the left and either Gabriel Obertan or Hatem Ben Arfa on the right). Until Papiss Cisse came into the side in January, main striker Demba Ba was partnered by either the speed of Leon Best or the power and hold-up play of Shola Ameobi. Against stronger sides away, the second striker was replaced by a fifth midfielder, often Danny Guthrie, to bolster the defense. Cisse was brought in during the January window, and Pardew changed to a 4-3-3 with Ba on the left and Ben Arfa on the right flanking Cisse. Although Ba stopped scoring, and was pretty unhappy about the situation, Cisse scored 13 goals in 13 games, frequently in spectacular fashion (including the Goal of the Season in a 2-0 win over Chelsea). With Gutierrez and Cabaye in support of the forwards, the side was difficult to handle, and both were competent in tracking back to support the defense. When Ryan Taylor played right back, there were two excellent free kick takers on the pitch. James Perch was on hand to play anywhere along the defense or holding midfielder. Ben Arfa was freed of defensive responsibilities, which seemed the best way to deal with him. They finished fifth, ahead of Chelsea, Everton, and Liverpool.

Now the club looks like a relegation side. So how did we get here?

1) Mike Ashley’s transfer policy has limited the squad. Ashley runs NUFC like a cash-cow, not a football club. Every player is available for the right price. Several top players have been sold at the end of transfer windows with no time for replacements – most notably Andy Carroll and Yohan Cabeye. Newcastle are consistently being outbid by clubs like Southampton, Swansea, and Hull City for players, which seems ludicrous for a club that plays in the third largest stadium in England. The club has clearly needed strikers and central defenders, and this summer they brought in no central defenders at all and no proven goalscorers while not securing Remy’s services past his loan term. With Demba Ba available, they passed on him too, and he went to Besiktas. Meanwhile, the players they did bring in this summer had no EPL experience except Jack Colback. Most fans believe that things won’t get better at Newcastle until Ashley sells the club. Trouble is that’s not happening as long as he’s raking in the money.

2) Pardew is misusing the squad he has. Since he doesn’t have the offensive talent anymore, Pardew has decided on a 4-2-3-1 formation. Remy Cabella has been asked to replace both Cabaye and Ben Arfa and has failed miserably at both. Cabella has not been able to take on and beat defenders like Ben Arfa, and his distribution has been average. Cabaye’s free kick ability has not been replaced either. Daryl Janmaat has taken Mathieu Debuchy’s position at right back, but he is not as good defensively as Debuchy and the other defensive concerns often prevent him from getting forward as much as he’d like. The fine pairing in central midfield of the defensive Tiote and the offensive Cabaye is no more, and United are without a true attacking central midfielder until new signee Siem De Jong recovers from a groin injury.

Up front, with Cisse not available for a full 90 minutes, new signee Emmanuel Riviere has been the lone striker. Riviere has shown no ability to play up front by himself. He’s not tall enough or a skilled enough passer to be a hold-up forward and he’s not fast enough to beat defenders. He does seem to be able to hold up the ball once he gets it, but getting it to him is a problem. Without Cabaye, most free kicks have been ill-placed efforts from Colback or Cabella to get the ball onto the head of Mike Williamson.

Pardew made things worse by forcing out his most creative player, Ben Arfa, who was loaned to Hull City. The only players left on the squad who seem to be able to dribble around defenders are Sissoko, who doesn’t have a lot of pace; Sammy Ameobi, who Pardew won’t play for more than 15 minutes at a time; and Rolando Aarons, who looked promising before getting hurt.

Last year Pardew used Mapu Yanga-Mbiwa, a natural fullback, as a central defender, and it didn’t work at all. Pardew gave up on him, and now he is flourishing at Roma – in central defense. Pardew may have given up on him too early, which is pretty bad considering the state of Newcastle’s squad. NUFC have only three central defenders, and any injury there would make things even worse.

Pardew has to change things up drastically. Maybe with this club he needs a 4-1-4-1, with Tiote in front of the defense, Aarons on the left (Ameobi until he gets back), Obertan on the right, Colback and Sissoko in the middle and Cisse up front. Obertan and Colback can help track back on the defense, and the wings have enough pace to create some problems. He clearly has to do something – apparently he’s going to drop Cabella for Obertan for the Swansea match.

3) Morale is at a low. The club’s morale since the loss of Cabaye has never recovered. That got worse last year when Pardew was banned for 7 games for head-butting David Meyler of Hull City. The transfer window loss of Debuchy and Remy, along with the injuries to Cisse, Santon, and new De Jong has left the side with a serious lack of quality. Pardew hasn’t shown any idea on how to fix this, and while the legendary Newcastle fans hate losing, they really hate boring football. They also don’t see much chance for change, as Pardew is seen a yes-man for Ashley. During matches, there’s no sign the players believe that possession is going to lead to goal-scoring chances, so they commit just a bit too far forward and get burned on the counter-attack.

If Pardew has had full control or even most of the control over transfers, then he’s failed miserably and should have been sacked already. If he has very little control, well, he still should have been sacked by now because he hasn’t shown any ability to stop the bleeding. But just because I believe Pardew should be fired, that doesn’t mean I think a new manager will have much more success. I don’t think a strong manager would come in under the conditions, and restrictions, imposed by Ashley. Whether it’s Pardew or Ashley who’s at fault here – and it’s clear that both are at fault –the fact is the squad now looks nothing like the Champions League contenders of 2011-12, and an influx of talent in January might be the only thing that saves Newcastle from relegation.